2007-03-06 10:38:10 · 11 answers · asked by Eric 1 in Travel ➔ Africa & Middle East ➔ South Africa
The rand will probably stabilise to around R8 to the dollar during the period leading up to the 2010 World Cup and thereafter devalue drastically, probably to around R15 to the dollar within 2 years and steadily devalue each year thereafter depending on the policies of the ANC and the continued exodus of minority groups (brain drain).
2007-03-06 16:48:12 · answer #1 · answered by Raging Bull II 2 · 2⤊ 1⤋
Foreign investors are watching the politicians in the country with eagle eyes. I've been monitoring the rand closely during the past three years, and every time something happens on the political front, the rand jumps up or down. Foreign investors know what happened elsewhere in Africa due to bad politicians (e.g. Zimbabwe) and are skittish.
Last year, in the 24 hours after Zuma was found innocent, the rand took it's sharpest plunge in 3 years. Coincidence? You decide.
The rand took a similar, albeit much smaller, dip the past week after Pallo Jordan's obnoxious remarks.
It did, however, showed a sudden small rise after the National budget was released the week before.
The politicians need to be more careful. Anything that sounds like Mugabeism will send the rand plunging and investors running. Racism has never been, and never will be good business.
To get back to your question. It all depends on how level-headed the government is...and since the ANC is governing...I will go with moderately DOWN in the intermediate future.
Who knows what may happen after the 2009 elections.
2007-03-07 03:14:50 · answer #2 · answered by Vango 5 · 1⤊ 0⤋
The South African market is a very skittish market. We have witnessed the effect that the chinese market has had on the Rand in the last week.
In contrast, the other major currencies all remained firm in relation to each other.
It´s very much a confidence game in S.A. , and it all depends on how other nations view S.A.
Certainly the huge crime situation is not helping, nor South Africa´s refusal to admonish Mugabe´s actions and the implications of ministers involved in fraud, tax evasions etc.
does not encourage overseas investors.
A lot depends on who is the next president after Mbeki, and with Zuma who has a strong support base in the ANC, ANCYL, COSATU and SACP, things don´t look as though they will improve.
I see the Rand devaluing a little until 2009, perhaps at R8/dollar, with a slight strengthening in the year leading into the world cup.
Once the world cup is finished and the attention is off South Africa again, I believe you will begin to see more radical policies being introduced with a speeding up of land reforms and therefore a big devaluation of the Rand.
2007-03-07 02:42:02 · answer #3 · answered by turniton5 3 · 2⤊ 0⤋
The Rand will stabilise at the R7:50 to the Dollar.
2007-03-06 13:18:57 · answer #4 · answered by Anonymous · 0⤊ 0⤋
Drip..Drip...Drip Yeah that's the sound of the brain drain. Soon all those with any talent will be gone...Here in British Columbia Canada we have 1000s of Surgeons Doctors Dentists Engineers all out of SA
and glad to be here, and we are glad to have them, When the last remnants leave then any external investments will end and the Rand will go into free fall
2007-03-06 19:07:38 · answer #5 · answered by Anonymous · 1⤊ 0⤋
Down - no but it should float around current levels for the forseeable future. The situation is that you have a very fragile economy built around Tourism,Mining, Foreign Investment and Consumer spending. South Africa is not a skills based manufacturing economy so if their is a drop in any or a combination of the above your currency will plummet.
2007-03-06 18:35:32 · answer #6 · answered by Anonymous · 0⤊ 0⤋
All it will take is a scare to foreign tourists and no one travels to SA (just like has happened in the past and the rand will become worthless - yet again.
2007-03-06 23:35:49 · answer #7 · answered by london.oval 5 · 1⤊ 1⤋
you hear that whistling sound? that's the sound of the rand plummeting!
its difficult to judge these days, because the rand is so volatile. it only takes a small thing to upset its value, and with our oh so dependable (tongue in cheek) government, all that has to happen is for them to carry on with their daily work, and the rand is sure to fall...
2007-03-06 23:57:48 · answer #8 · answered by Anonymous · 1⤊ 1⤋
It is very hard to predict any currency. Its a simple case of demand and supply.
2007-03-06 13:54:13 · answer #9 · answered by ysnmoosa 2 · 0⤊ 2⤋
THE ANSWER IS DEFIANTLY YES TO BOTH YOUR QUESTIONS.
WITH SUCH A GOVERNMENT YOU CAN ANTICIPATE ANYTHING AND EVERYTHING.
2007-03-06 16:07:20 · answer #10 · answered by zilber 4 · 0⤊ 0⤋