What are some storm predictions for 2007? Any links?

Question

Im lookin for an possible increase in tornadoes, hurricanes or both.
Im doing something for my newspaper class and possibly tie it in to a global warming segment we did.

Answer 1

I have been predicting Tornadoes!!! for 2007 for quite some time. You can verify in my Answers, long before recent incidents.

Generally, there is greater incidence of colliding air masses, more accentuation to North-South circulation dynamics both atmospheric and marine. At least, that is the way I put it, in simple language.

I have predicted tornadoes hitting unexpected Eastern and Northern, therefore also Northeastern areas.

I hope not, but say probability of some F5 tornadoes in TX, OK, AR, MO is up.

Hurricanes return. I expect movements along the East coast, but do not rule out big hurricanes striking TX, FL, Mexico or other Gulf coast areas.

As to the hurricane intensity, that depends on ocean heating and the size of the resulting hurricane. Obviously larger ones are more destructive.

This year I would also expect the probability of storms transiting the Central America area to increase. Sometimes in the past typhoons have crossed the land and redeveloped as hurricanes and vice versa.

The hot, moisture laden ocean air masses will try to mix with cooler air over land one way or another, especially late in the year. I wish I knew more about how the jet streams influence hurricanes and typhoons, but I am not a pro.

Nevertheless, so far my predictions have been spot on. Shows what you can do with understanding just the basics. Plus having a lot of helpful experience.

I think there could be some very big Tornadoes!!! further north in Dakotas, Minnesota and even Canadian border areas.

If we warm up gradually there will be less flooding and if we warm up fast there will be more flooding.

The people in California would do well to monitor sea temperatures in their vicinity and to see how these sort out with their changing weather patterns. That will give them a leg up on knowing what to expect in the near future.

How much hotter will the oceans get? This is the big question from my point of view.

Looks like the tornadoes have started early and hard so far.

I do not see any let up in the continuing strange weather. Better to worry less about monitoring this and focus more on the strength and durability of your housing in vulnerable areas. Do not wait, get on it now.

If all you can afford is some increased insurance coverage, then go for it!

If you rebuild your house, construct a new house, consider the more tornado resistant methods in Nunitak's Weather Blog:

http://360.yahoo.com/ki+te_moana

So, I would worry much more about housing strength, improving it, and where the bees are going than the weather.

There is very little a human can do to influence the weather aside from being more energy efficient.

But we can do lots to improve housing, even make it much cheaper at the same time as stronger. And we can find out what the bee problem is.

There are many urls in my blog which may have information useful for your school project(s):

http://360.yahoo.com/ki_te_moana

Click on Blog at the top. Look through last year's articles and check out the Blog Roll (scroll down the left margin).

Tornadoes occasionally strike around Maryland too. Looks like you are safer north of the jet stream, and at risk directly below it.

Generally, I think the tornadoes move north as the season progresses. It will be a long tornado season.

Answer 2

I wouldn't tie it directly to Global warming. And it is TOO early to SAY that yesterday's severe weather was global warming or that the season will be above average. It is March after all. In the Southern parts of our country they are entering Spring. The entire country is gearing up towards that. It's VERY typical of March.

Some areas that have torrential rains the first week of March can have snow the 2nd week. Spring is known for that.

A La Nina is developing one can ASSUME that means an increase in hurricanes especially in the Atlantic. NO predictions for hurricane season are out, YET. LATE April you can expect to see them.