Ranking history research?

Question

Has anyone done a study of the typical ranking history of those players who end up becoming top ranked? For example, is there a basic path to the top, whereby the player within very short order of turning pro steadily moves up? Or are there some examples of players who muddled around in the middle or lower rankings for perhaps several years before they made their move? For example, has there ever been a case of a player hanging around above the ranking of 50, say for four or more years, who finally reaches a breakthrough and stays in the top-10 for the rest of his career? Just wondering. It appears to me that those who become top-ranked do so rather quickly, and at a young age. On the other hand, it appears that if you do not break the top-50 within your first 3 or 4 years you will never do so. Is that right?

Answer 1

I think the younger #1's are more common in women's tennis. Hingis, Seles, Graf, Serena, Sharapova, and practically everyone else got to #1 by the age of 21, I believe. Rarely do you you see players do it later in life. Davenport was obviously the best player in the game throughout 2004 and 2005 when she was 28 or 29 but she had already reached #1 when she was 22. Amelie Mauresmo was a late-bloomer as well. But these tend to be exceptions to the rule.

In men's tennis, it's hard to tell because for the last 15 years, 2 players have dominated the #1 ranking. Pete and Roger. There have been a ton of players who held the #1 ranking for fewer than 10 weeks, though. They have been pretty evenly distributed for the last 10 years or so. There have been some very young players to get #1. Lleyton Hewitt was 20, Roddick was 21, Safin was 20. There have been some players who flirted with it their whole careers. Agassi and Sampras were #1 ranked 6 and 10 times respectively, from 1993-2003. Then there were players who just hovered around and finally had the breakthrough. Pat Rafter is the best example of this. He was almost 27 when he got to the summit. Kafelnikov was relatively old, too. So I guess the men have a pretty even distribution.

Answer 2

It stands to reason that a failure to break the top 50 in the first 3-4 years generally becomes a permanent ceiling for a player.

As for a slower path to the top 10, James Blake is a prime example. Early on in his career, Blake had to rely solely on his forehand for success. However, as he improved his backhand, court coverage and return game, he climbed into the top 10 and took over the top of the US rankings.

Another consideration would be Roger Federer. He turned pro in 1998, but didn't break the top 10 until 2002 and didn't win his 1st grand slam until his 5th year as a professional in 2003.