who thinks if griffey gets a few healthy years he could get close to a the homerun record?

Question

i mean he plays the game. what good about him is he doesnt cork his bat or use roids alot of people dont but you get the point

Answer 1

I'd love to see it but I just don't think he has enough prime years left. Certainly if his entire career would have been healthy he would no doubt have passed Aaron's mark of 755.

Answer 2

Bill James, a baseball writer and historian, created a method in the 80's to estimate a player's chance of meeting a specific goal, in this case 756 home runs. He called this method his Favorite Toy. To use the Favorite Toy you first need 3 pieces of information about Griffey:

1. HR Needed: Griffey had 563 career HR at the end of last season, which means he needs 193 more to reach 756.

2. Established HR Level: That's a weighted average to estimate the player's current level of perfomance. For 2007, this is found by adding the sum of three times his 2006 HR total, two times his 2005 and 2004 HR totals, then dividing by 6. Griffey's Established HR Level is 31.8 HR per year.

3. Years Remaining (barring serious injury): Calcutlate this by multiplying the player's age by 0.6 and subtracting the result from 24. Griffey is 37. Subtract 22.2 (0.6x37) from 24 and you have 1.8 - the number of years Griffey has left in which he'll stay at his established level (31.8 per year).

Once this data is in hand, you can estimate how many home runs a player will hit in the remainder of his career by multiplying his established HR level by his years remaining. By this formula, Griffey's got 57 HR left in the tank before he starts to really decline.

The odds of reaching the goal are then estimated as the number of remaining HR divided by the number of HR needed, minus 0.5. For Griffey, this is (57/193) - 0.5, or -0.204. Griffey has a -20.4 chance of breaking Arron's record, therefore, no chance of breaking it.

Using this method he has just over a 50% chance of hitting 600 HR. Sadly that is nowhere close to 756....I'd love to see him do it, but it's not going to happen.

Using this method only 5 players have established a chance to hit 756 (stats through 2005).

Alex Rodrguez....30%
Barry Bonds.......28%
Albert Pujols.......15%
Andruw Jones....10%
Adam Dunn........6%

These numbers show you just how incredibly difficult it is to get to 756. Even if players are healthy and have some great years, they may not make it. Age will start dramatically reducing a player's HR totals starting in their mid to late 30s.

Answer 3

Griffey will always be my favorite BB player. Homer record I dont think so unless he spends the next 5- 7 years in AL at DH but he is an accident waiting 2 happen

Answer 4

Obviously, he is like glass and gets hurt alot. So putting together a string of great years is unlikely to happen. Bonds will break the record but I doubt it will last as long with players like A-Rod and Pujols likely to break it if they stay durable. JR could have but time is not on his side......

Answer 5

I love Griffey, but hes at the age his HR productions is gonna fall off and he will retire with 600-675 home runs. Hes also fragile but my hats off to him..hes done it fair and square, and took his lumps wiht no griping...a class act and a first ballot HOFamer

Answer 6

It would be awesome if he did. I much rather see a true baseball player like him break it, instead of steroid-taking jackasses like Bonds. I just don't think it will happen. He is near mid-30's, and apparently his bones are made of paper.

Answer 7

HE MIGHT PASS MAYS, THAT IS ABOUT IT.