What are the chances of a Nuclear Bomb being set off in the next five years?

Question

I believe the odds are very likely what do you think?

Answer 1

I don't think it will take 5 years. More like 3 years.

Answer 2

Small and here's why... Who are the world's nuclear powers? The US, former Soviet Union, China, Japan, India, Pakistan, Israel, some european nation states and potentially North Korea? With the exception of North Korea and Pakistan almost all of these players have something greater at stake... Supply chains!

The world is flat. If you're, say, India you're far more interested in your economy than you are petty border squabbles with your neighbors to the north. You're doing a brisk international business BUT you hear the footsteps of the under developed nations waiting in the wings. If you're found at the heart of a global conflict that has the potential to upset your role in the supply chain, Michael Dell takes his business to East Timor and it is a LONG, Long, long time before it comes back to you (if ever).

I know that the current administration and the really bad TV show 24 make their stock and trade of scaring the sh*t out of the American people. I don't buy it. I'm just not that worried about the ghosts we're chasing all over the world. I reject the argument that if we don't fight them over there we'll have to do it here (when the truth is if we quit funding Isreal, a nation with no resource or strategic value to us, we won't have to fight them anywhere).

Sorry I can't be more worried about being nuked. I'm just not feeling you.

Answer 3

Less than one in 100. This seems to be very low, but given the consequences of a nuclear bomb being set off, this "low" proability is scary enough for me.

I think that there are higher probabilities for one or both of the following:
(1) An explosion that sets off radioactive waste packed around a high explosive core — this is a terror weapon that we should be very concerned about and would justify very tight levels of security and intelligence; and
(2) Possibiility of non-nuclear pre-emptive attacks to destroy or delay acquisition of nuclear weapons by non-nuclear rogue states or para-state movements.

Answer 4

The chances of a nuclear test being conducted by some country our 100%.

The chances of a country or terrorist setting off a nuclear bomb to attack somebody are about 0%.

The chance of a terrorist eventually employing a more cheaper and conventional terrorist attack on us in the west ad succeeding somewat is about 10%

Answer 5

The odds do seem to be getting better don't they?

In the past when it was the US vs. the Soviet Union, the idea of mutually assured destruction kept their use in check. They wouldn't use them first, because they knew we would fire back leading to complete destruction of their infrastructure and visa versa.

Now that you have terrorist states on the verge of possessing them the idea behind MAD doesn't work, and I think they might be more likely to actually use them. Of course their yield won't be what the big boys had, but even a small nuke is a large bomb.

Answer 6

Chances of a test are pretty good.
I expect that a nuclear bomb set off in anger will take longer, if it ever happens, which it may well, but I hope not.

Answer 7

it may desire to take place... yet this has been the placement for no less than some 10 or 15 years. they have continuously mentioned that a college student could desire to build a bomb, even though it hasn't befell yet so i think of there is explanation for optimism right here (and that i in no way am).

Answer 8

30:1

Answer 9

You mean actually used as a weapon, or nuclear testing? As a weapon, it's just a matter of time. And nuclear testing happens all the time.

Answer 10

One used in a test is very likely, seeing countries do it all the time.
One used in anger I don't think will happen.
I just can't worry about it though, if you do you'll go nuts