What tools do meteorologists use to forcast the weather?

Answer 1

Download Weather Toolbar - Instant weather reports, forecasts, and radar images anytime for free - http://surl.in/HLWTD261252BMRMTGQ

Answer 2

In 1960, the launch of TIROS-1, the first successful weather satellite marked the beginning of the age where weather information is available globally. Weather satellites along with more general-purpose Earth-observing satellites circling the earth at various altitudes have become an indispensable tool for studying a wide range of phenomena from forest fires to El Niño.

In recent years, climate models have been developed that feature a resolution comparable to older weather prediction models. These climate models are used to investigate long-term climate shifts, such as what effects might be caused by human emission of greenhouse gases.


Weather forecasting
Main article: Weather forecasting

A meteorogist at work at the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK.Although meteorologists now rely heavily on computer models (numerical weather prediction), it is still relatively common to use techniques and conceptual models that were developed before computers were powerful enough to make predictions accurately or efficiently (generally speaking, prior to around 1980). Many of these methods are used to determine how much skill a forecaster has added to the forecast (for example, how much better than persistence or climatology did the forecast do?). Similarly, they could also be used to determine how much skill the industry as a whole has gained with emerging technologies and techniques.

Persistence method
The persistence method assumes that conditions will not change. Often summarised as "Tomorrow equals today". This method works best over short periods of time in stagnant weather regimes.

Extrapolation method
This assumes that the systems in the atmosphere propagate at similar speeds than seen in the past at some distance into the future. This method works best over short periods of time, and works best if you take diurnal changes in the pressure and precipitation patterns into account.

Numerical forecasting method
The numerical weather prediction or NWP method uses computers to take into account a large number of variables and creates a computer model of the atmosphere. This is most successful when used with the methods below, and when model biases and relative skill are taken into account. In general, the ECMWF model outperforms the NCEP ensemble mean, which outperforms the UKMET/GFS model after 72 hours, which outperform in the NAM model at most time frames. This performance changes when tropical cyclones are taken into account, as the ECMWF/model ensemble methods/model consensus/GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS/ all perform exceedingly well, with the NAM and Canadian GEM exhibiting lower accuracy.

Consensus/ensemble methods of forecasting
Statistically, it is difficult to beat the mean solution, and the consensus and ensemble methods of forecasting take advantage of the situation by only favoring models that have the greatest support with their ensemble means or other pieces of global model guidance. A local Hydrometeorological Prediction Center study showed that using this method alone verifies 50-55% of the time.

Trends method
The trends method involves determining the change in fronts and high and low pressure centers in the model runs over various lengths of time. If the trend is seen over a long enough time frame (24 hours or so), it is more meaningful. The forecast models have been known to overtrend however, so use of this method verifies 55-60% the time, more so in the surface pattern than aloft.

Climatology/Analog method
The 'climatology or analog method involves using historical weather data collected over long periods of time (years) to predict conditions on a given date. A variation on this theme is the use of teleconnections, which rely upon the date and the expected position of other positive or negative 500 hPa height anomalies to give someone an impression of what the overall pattern would look like with this anomaly in place, and is of more significant help than a model trend since it verifies roughly 75 percent of the time, when used properly and with a stable anomaly center. Another variation is the use of standard deviations from climatology in various meteorological fields. Once the pattern deviates more than 4-5 sigmas from climatology, it becomes an improbable solution.

Answer 3

They use several tools, such as; barometer, humidity meter, and thermometer are just a few things that use. You can predict the weather simply by knowing the barometric pressure, humidity, and temperature. You can buy a home weather monitoring station, they're fun and not too expensive. Click on the link to check one out.

Answer 4

Doppler Radar mostly or satillite images from space.

Answer 5

A crystal ball.

Answer 6

Lately it feels like they must be cutting open dead cats and reading their entrails for clues.