I recently watched HBO's REAL SPORTS profile on Ryan Howard, and Bryant Gumbel said: "Not if, but when Howard breaks the all time home run record."
Ok, now is this really possible? The record is 755 (who knows how much higher it will be if Bonds surpasses it). Howard is already 27 and has 82 homeruns. Lets say he plays 15 more years -- he would need to average about 44 home runs each season. And that's if the record stays at 755.
2007-02-25 06:02:17 · 18 answers · asked by N.J. 2 in Sports ➔ Baseball
Ok I should rephrase that... of course it's possible... my point is: Is it that much of a guarantee where Gumbel should say, "Not if, but when." ...?
2007-02-25 06:29:11 · update #1
No, and again Gumbel makes another stupid statement. Howard is a GREAT young power hitter, but he's already 27. He's had only one full season. If you check out the all-time home run leaders, they came up very young, early 20s. For anyone to break that record, they'd have to come up at 21 or 22 and produce for 20 years to even get close to it. Hank Aaron came up when he was 20 and was consistent every year, which is how he hit 755. Even if Howard were to average 50 a year for 10 years, which is highly unlikely, as pitching will figure him out at least a little bit, he still would not even have 600. Aaron, A-Rod, and others who got to the major leagues early on already had over 200 homers by the time they were 27.
Pujols and A-Rod have the best shot at the record, they had their first full seasons at 21 and have been hitting 40 bombs almost every season.
2007-02-25 06:23:29 · answer #1 · answered by Jeffrey S 6 · 1⤊ 0⤋
Pujols will break the record, no doubt, he's still improving (he set personal bests in 2006) and DOESN'T STRIKE OUT AS MUCH AS HOWARD. in fact, pujols was 3 home runs shy of having more homers than strikeouts for 2006 (remember, he spent about three weeks on the DL). A-Rod might join him on top, but fall short of breaking the new record pujols'll set. o, and pujols will break the record as a Cardinal. Howard has played one season of ball and everyone is already calling him the home run record smasher. He had one good season. Judging by philly's line up, he won't have superb protection and will probably end up getting walked a lot, plus he strikes out 150 times a day, so.... you know.....
2007-02-25 10:15:38 · answer #2 · answered by J 2 · 0⤊ 0⤋
Howard is a great young power hitter but he got a late start in his career. Pujois and ARod have the best chance of being the all time home runn hitters because they got out the gate early and produced at an early age. To break the record he would have to consistantly put up huge numbers and stay healthy, something that is hard over the long haul. Maybe at a single season record, which is doubtful, because if you was hitting home runs at almost a one to two game pace you would start getting a lot of intentional passes, and maybe at 500+ for a career, but its way too early to project him as a Henry Aaron/Babe Ruth kind of slugger.
2007-02-25 08:14:22 · answer #3 · answered by allenmontana 3 · 0⤊ 0⤋
I think Alex Rodriguez has a better chance at breaking the all time HR record he's already at 465 and has another good 10 years left. What Gumbel probably meant was the single season HR record which is attainable.
2007-02-25 07:51:01 · answer #4 · answered by Oz 7 · 0⤊ 0⤋
Its definitely too early to say that, plus he is already 27. So if he would have to hit nearly 50 a year till he is 40 yrs old which would be crazy hard. Pujols and A-Rod definitely have a better shot at it right now. Gumbel smokes crack.
2007-02-25 07:12:10 · answer #5 · answered by Anonymous · 1⤊ 0⤋
Maybe, Ryan is gonna have to play at least until the age of 40 (Barry Bonds is older than that and still is below the mark). He has proven he can hit in a 50-60 hr range per year, and he has not yet landed himself on the DL in his 3 years. I believe it is possible.
2007-02-25 06:16:30 · answer #6 · answered by super_bendon 4 · 0⤊ 0⤋
No one in the history of baseball ever stayed that healthy and that great consistently for so long.
Considering Howard's age' he can't break the record.
Maybe if he was 5 years younger. Too bad, it would be nice if he was #1 instead of Barry "Steroid" Bonds.
2007-02-25 06:41:30 · answer #7 · answered by Anonymous · 1⤊ 0⤋
the key words is "IF HE IS HEALTHY" bonds was healthy before his 40s. howard is already 27 i think he is one year younger tha pujols and pujols has way more HRs than howard. it is going to be really hard for howard if he has pressure to do so and if he can combat the elements and age. i say he hits over 600 HRs when he is done but not the record.
2007-02-25 06:15:52 · answer #8 · answered by what? 7 · 0⤊ 0⤋
A-Rod and Pujols are currently well ahead of pace if they stay healthy. It's too early in Howards career to make that kind of a call even though he's off to a great start.
2007-02-25 08:13:53 · answer #9 · answered by Anonymous · 0⤊ 0⤋
I watched Ryan Howard in Reading, in the minor leagues. I knew he would be something special. And, it did come about.
But as far as the HR record is concerned, let's wait about 10 years or so before we think about it.
Meanwhile, let's hope he helps get the Phillies in the playoffs.
2007-02-25 06:57:53 · answer #10 · answered by Barry auh2o 7 · 0⤊ 0⤋