Do you think April 13, 2036 is the end of the us??

Question

I read about the asteroid hittin close to earth and it's pretty scary don't you think??

Answer 1

The present position about asteroid 99942 Apophis: as told by Wikipedia is this:

(99942) Apophis (previously known by its provisional designation 2004 MN4) is a near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a relatively large probability that it would strike the Earth in 2029.

However, additional observations provided improved predictions that eliminated the possibility of an impact on Earth or the Moon in 2029. However there remained a possibility that during the 2029 close encounter with Earth, Apophis would pass through a "gravitational keyhole", a precise region in space no more than about 400 meters across, that would set up a future impact on April 13, 2036.

This possibility kept the asteroid at Level 1 on the Torino impact hazard scale until August 2006.

Additional observations of the trajectory of Apophis revealed the "keyhole" would likely be missed and on August 5, 2006, Apophis was lowered to a Level 0 Torino impact hazard scale. As of October 19, 2006 the impact probability for April 13, 2036 is estimated at 1 in 45,000.

An additional impact date in 2037 has been identified, however the impact probability for that encounter is 1 in 12.3 million.

MY COMMENTS

(1) This is not an impact (if it happens) that would threaten the future of life on earth, as compared to the one that wiped out the dinosaurs. One doesn't want anyone to die but let's get it in perspective.

(2) I think I can live with odds of 1 in 45,000 and sleep easily in my bed at night but others may have a lower threshold of apprehension than me.

(3) the next close approach is 2013 and there are plans for radar measurements which would enable its orbit up till 2070 to be calculated.

(4) Apophis orbits the sun once every 323 days. For the majority of its year it is inside earth's orbit but it crosses our orbit on its way out to aphelion and on its way back in again. That is about 16 crossover points every 7 Earth years.

Usually for 14 or 15 of those 16 cross-over points, the Earth is millions of miles away, eg on the far side of the Sun and only one or two of the 16 need to be calculated as to the (im)probability of an impact at all.

So what we have is a recurrent but not a persistent problem. One that will always need to have a watchful eye kept on it but only needs priority attention once every seven or eight years or so.

Answer 2

Luckily we won't be around, because, according to the Mayan calendar, the world will end in 2010. And according to some religious people on this site, Christ will return and rule us in peace and harmony within either 15, 20, or 25 years. In any case, we will either be OK (if Christ returns) or all dead (nasty Mayans!) when the asteroid hits the Earth.
Even if it does, we will know well in advance, and our illustrious politicians and wealthy elite will save themselves by burrowing underground etc. and emerging when it's safe, thus preserving the human race.
So relax.

Answer 3

Do you think that? I just cannot predict that, because that asteroid will need to be very lucky to reach The Earth at that time.
D'u think that the Earth will have the same atmosphere as now and that it will be equally dense as it is now????

Answer 4

I have to say in all honesty at this point I don't care.

Maybe I'm just a little jaded by so many things in my life combined with so many times people saying we were all going to die or face some major disaster that would effect most or all of the Earth.

Answer 5

We have a like 1 in 45000 chance of being hit... it is not that scary, what is really scary is that we may not be around to see it because there are millions of other objects that we have not even seen yet... thats just one, there are ones that are going to pass buy us at the same distance that we have yet to find.

Answer 6

I think we're done somewhat before all that---
the asteroid could simply be the restart button for the planet !!

Answer 7

maybe if one of the others doesn't hit us first. I'd say that is the most likely end of the humans. but the earth should be ok.:)

Answer 8

people have been predicting the end of the world since the dorm of time, 1996,1999,2000,2012,2060 just to name a few i wouldnt worry about it and if it does well we all in the same boat.

Answer 9

ITS WRONG HOW WE DONT KNOW WHICH DAY IS THE END OF US ITS ALL UPTO GOD!

Answer 10

no