Asteriod going to hit earth in 2036 maybe?

Question

What do you guys think of this?, there is a 1/45000 chance it will hit Earth.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070218/sc_nm/asteroid_deflector_dc_5

Answer 1

For a more informative view, go here.

http://www.space.com/news/051103_asteroid_apophis.html

It says that it will pass close to the Earth in 2029. That will be exciting. But that its path could then be altered unpredictably, by Earth's gravity, for its next pass in 2036. It could miss us completely, or hit us square on, or it's orbit could change so that it falls into the Sun. Who knows? We don't have to worry and cant do anything about it until 2029.
Even if it hits, it will not devastate life on Earth, as it is not big enough - it is about 320 metres in diameter (1000 feet). That's big, but if it lands in the ocean, it will cause a tsunami, but we have survived them before. It could hit a city, and could cause massive localised, even widespread damage, but not on a global scale.

Answer 2

Apophis 99942 is an intensive to-Earth asteroid that led to a short era of subject in December 2004 because of the fact preliminary observations indicated a small danger (as much as two.7%) that it might strike the Earth in 2029. It became into then calculated it ought to strike Earth on a next orbit in 2036. that's now shown (by ability of cautious plotting of its orbit) that it will no longer collide with the Earth or the Moon in any respect. It orbits the solar in much less that a million Earth 300 and sixty 5 days, only 323 days, passing interior Mercury's orbit and by no ability going so a techniques as Mars. as a result it crosses the orbit of Venus and Earth, to boot as Mercury. In any adventure that's incredibly small, at 270 meters in the time of. it does no longer have led to a significant subject in the international.

Answer 3

It is possible, but then again, there is a 1/45000 chance that I will win the lottery.

Answer 4

The current position on asteroid 99942 Apophis as told by Wikipedia is this:

(a) (99942) Apophis (previously known by its provisional designation 2004 MN4) is a near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a relatively large probability that it would strike the Earth in 2029.

However, additional observations provided improved predictions that eliminated the possibility of an impact on Earth or the Moon in 2029. However there remained a possibility that during the 2029 close encounter with Earth, Apophis would pass through a "gravitational keyhole", a precise region in space no more than about 400 meters across, that would set up a future impact on April 13, 2036.

This possibility kept the asteroid at Level 1 on the Torino impact hazard scale until August 2006.

Additional observations of the trajectory of Apophis revealed the "keyhole" would likely be missed and on August 5, 2006, Apophis was lowered to a Level 0 Torino impact hazard scale. As of October 19, 2006 the impact probability for April 13, 2036 is estimated at 1 in 45,000.

An additional impact date in 2037 has been identified, however the impact probability for that encounter is 1 in 12.3 million.

(b) In July 2005, former Apollo astronaut Rusty Schweickart, as chairman of the B612 Foundation, formally asked NASA to investigate the possibility that the asteroid's post-2029 orbit could be in orbital resonance with the Earth, which would increase the probability of future impacts.

Schweickart asked for an investigation of the necessity of placing a transponder on the asteroid for more accurate tracking of how its orbit is affected by the Yarkovsky effect (see 2nd link).

As regards what I think as regards the value of Schweickart's scheme?

(1) This is not an impact (if it happens) that would threaten the future of life on earth, as compared to the one that wiped out the dinosaurs. One doesn't want anyone to die but let's get it in perspective.

(2) I think I can live with odds of 1 in 45,000 and sleep easily in my bed at night but others may have a lower threshold of apprehension than me.

(3) the next close approach is 2013 and there are plans for radar measurements which would enable its orbit up till 2070 to be calculated. I think the level of ongoing threat needs assessing rather than simply react to the threat in 2036. If we had reacted to the threat for 2029, as it appeared to be at Xmas 2004, we would be looking rather foolish now.

(4) Apophis orbits the sun once every 323 days. For the majority of its year it is inside earth's orbit but it crosses our orbit on its way out to aphelion and on its way back in again. That is about 16 crossover points every 7 Earth years. Usually for 14 or 15 of those 16 cross-over points, the Earth is millions of miles away, eg on the far side of the Sun and only one or two of the 16 need to be calculated as to the (im)probability of an impact at all.

So what we have is a recurrent but not a persistent problem. One that will always need to have a watchful eye kept on it but only needs priority attention once every seven or eight years or so.

(5) The strongest case for Schweickart's scheme is if it provides a means of testing a technology that could be used on other asteroids that threaten to come close in the next 10-100 years.

As Bugs Bunny (another BB) would say, "That's it, folks!"