So about this whole asteroid thing!!!?

Question

So i was looking on the internet and one of the sources said that there is an asteroid heading toward us and there is a chance of it hitting us 2036 and then another says 2014 , being a person with alot of anxiety im scared out of my mind.. does anyone have any calming words.!! It also said that an asteroid hits the earth every 50 to 100 million years well about 50 million years ago the last one hit. I was just wondering if anyone had anymore information about this !!! or am i just freaking out way too much

Answer 1

This is nothing to worry about.

A large asteroid is just as likely to hit the day after a large asteroid hits as it is 50 million years later. It's just an average, not a dooms day clock.

Now, what I've read about this specific meteor leads me to believe the media (I'm looking at you, Discovery Channel) is blowing this way out of proportion. Channels that have shows like this are generaly pretty boring channels and they have to make the subjects seem a lot more interesting. Try to keep that in mind.

Now, let me explain what the risks are. As is, the meteor is not expected to hit Earth. When it passes in 2029, there is a small chance it might hit something called a 'gravitational keyhole' that would alter it's trajectory. This change in trajectory *could* put it's next pass closer to Earth, but it could just as easily alter the path further away.

Now, if you noticed, there's a lot of 'maybe' type words in there. The chances of it actually impacting are very minor.

But, let's just assume for a moment it did. The size of the object isn't what we call a 'planet killer'. If it did hit, it's direct effects would be local and it's secondary effects, like a plume of dust and vaporized materials, would have reigonal consequences. It would be rather like a nuclear bomb, though admitedly much larger. That sounds scary, I know, but the planet's still pretty big in comparison.

Worse case scenario is if it hit somewhere a few miles in the ocean. That would cause massive tsunamis and the damage would be pretty extensive.


That's the worse thing that could possibly happen. Big Tsunamis.

Just relax and try not to take things you read and see on TV so seriously. Most of it's hyped up, 'Worst Case Scenario' bullcrap so you get really freaked out and watch their channel more often.

Answer 2

I would advise you not to worry. There are currently no know asteroids on a collision course with Earth. Occasionally, the folks who look for these things (some affectionately call them "Flying Couches") notice one for which the orbital uncertainty does allow for the possibility for a collision with the Earth. When the orbits are further refined, however, it has always been the case that a possible collision has been ruled out. This is not to say that an Earth-threatening asteroid will not be found, but we don't know of any yet.

The probabilities that you mention are roughly correct. But using them to say that a collision is "due" is incorrect. For example, a coin has a 50/50 chance of falling on each side. Chances are good that if you flip it twice you'll get on "heads" and one "tails". But if you flip it once and get "heads", the probability for the next flip is still 50/50. The coin has no memory of what has happened before.

Answer 3

You are definitely overdoing it on the worry scale. If an asteroid hits the earth once every 50 million years, then there is one chance in 50 million that one will hit next year -- the time since the last strike is irrelevant. You have a far higher probability of being struck by lightning.

Answer 4

Knowledge is power, don't let it worry you.

Last question first, you ARE freaking out a little too much. It's worth knowing, and being knowledgable about , and making sure your government or the UN or whatever is keeping up progress on this matter - but don't start building a bunker or anything.

1st - The asteroid in question is relatively small. It would be bad IF it hit, but even if it did, it's not going to send humanity the way of the dinosaurs - so you can relax about that.

If Apophis were to hit on the date being currently mentioned, based on the time and position of the Earth, there's a good sporting chance it would hit water (specifically in the Northern Pacific off the coast of Alaska) just before dawn, make a tsunami of 1-3 meters in size at most. So just don't take that Alaska cruise that month, besides - it's off season.

Equivalent to about a 200Mt hydrogen bomb, while no such weapon exists. (the Russians once detonated a 100Mt weapon), The Russian weapon didn't destroy the Earth or anything, I'm not saying it was the most environmentally friendly thing to do...it just didn't cause global disaster.

More on Apophis and near Earth asteroids in general.

There is a near miss scheduled in April of 2036 and again in April of 2037, from an object called Apophis (after the bad-guy from Stargate SG1).

The reasons they repeat is because they are in close orbit to the Earth so every so often the path of the Earth and these objects meet up, There are hundreds of such objects that we are aware of and probably hundreds more of which we are not.

The Apophis encounter of April 2036, will be a VERY close miss though, the asteroid will probably be able to be seen by just looking up into the night sky the day it passes, it will be closer to the Earth than many of our satelites.

The links below give better information than I can here.

You see ... actually, meteors hit the planet EVERY day. Most of the meteors are very small, (the size of grains of sand and dust). Bigger meteors also hit the Earth but the larger the meteor is the less likely you will find it in the area around the Earth.

Bigger meteors and other space junk near the Earth are being tracked by NASA and other organizations , these are called appropriately enough, Near Earth Objects. Basically started in the 1990's these programs have found dozens/hundreds of meteors / asteroids that could strike the Earth. So far nobody has found an asteroid or meteor that for sure WILL hit the Earth.

The list of all the things we KNOW about is at the link below. It's always possible there is a rock out there with our name on it , that we haven't found - yet.

List of asteroids/meteors near Earth : http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/

You can think of it like this..by saying what are the odds of being bitten by a bug. On average, it doesn't happen very often, but if you go to a picnic or a park in summertime it could happen several times in one day - you may not even notice.

Over a long period of time (years or decades) it's not IF you are going to get stung by a bee or a bug, but how many times that's going to happen.

It's the same thing with meteors , on average a big meteor hits the Earth once every 100 to 200 years. The last time was in 1908 in Tungusta, Russia/Siberia. The comet/meteor broke up before it hit the surface of the Earth but the blast wave snapped trees for hundreds of miles in most directions.

Nobody knows if anyone died because it occured in the middle of a big frozen tundra/swamp.

Overall the risk of impacts is more or less constant but is slightly decreasing over billions of years - someone once compared it to "Living on a shooting range....Eventually, your gonna get shot."

It doesn't as frequently as it used to because the Earth and other planets have "cleared" a path through space long ago. Think of the planets like small vaccum cleaners going around the sun in circles - vaccuming their path over and over again. It takes a long time but they eventually clear most of the areas in the room that they travel near.

List of asteroids and meteors close to Earth : http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/
Tunguska Event : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunguska_event
Apophis #1 : http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/a99942.html
Apophis #2 : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis

Answer 5

Stop freaking out about something you can't do anything about. Worrying will not add another day to your life. When I was 29 years old I was told by my doctor I would only live for 5 more years. Here it has been 17 years later and here I am still. Put yourself in God's hands and live your life you have now to the fullest.

Answer 6

haven't seen this but I will be more observant, not that it will do a whole lot of good right now. It's possible at any time and we're just now deciding how we are going to handle the situation. We're still in the theoretical stage and those rocks ain't.

Answer 7

dude your freaking out too much, nothing will happen. why would it, and the earth is not 1 billion gazillion whatever years old, thats just a
stupid myth scientists think. like evoulution for example. i mean coming from monkeys, thats just dumb. hope this helps