Can we predict a financial stock market ?

Question

Its commenly said that no one can predict the flow of a market yet there is some factor that is able to predict it exactly ! anyone have an idea or which type of people are able to predict the market exactly a needed and yet make millions and maybe billions due to that !

Answer 1

The people that say it can not haven't heard of William D. Gann. W.D. Gann invested in the markets during the early part of the 1900's and died in the 1950's. Gann has an incredible track record of predicting when and where a market would turn. There was an instance where news reporters followed him around while he traded and out of something like 288 trades, he was correct on 284 of them.

Gann would do things like one one trade, he said that Sept. Wheat would trade at $1.30. At the time he made that statement, Sept. wheat was trading in the 84 cent range. In other words, the Sept. wheat contract would have to trade at $1.30 before expiration. I believe he made that statement in July of that year, meaning wheat would have to climb 46 cents in 2 months and a 46 cent move is quite a bit. On the last day of trading, wheat was still in the high 90 cent, low $1 range. An hour before the trading session ended and the Sept. wheat contract expired, wheat prices took of an hit a high of guess what - $1.30 and not a cent higher.

There was one gentlemen (who's name I forget, it's in an article on my work computer) that took all the cycles that are present in the stock market and made a composite cycle. For a period of about 6 years, he traded only on that composite cycle and had an unheard of 185:1 win/loss ratiol.

I personally have been able to call market turning points to within 1 tick of the price high/low. It's not easy, but I've had done is a couple of times.

W.D. Gann wrote several books on trading, but the concensus is that Gann did not share his secrets in his writings, that he died without ever revealing how he knew when and where markets would turn.

For example, there is a consistent pattern that turns up in the market called Fibonacci retracement levels. Leonardo di Pisa was a 13th centurn mathematician that discovered a unique mathematical sequence that exists in nature. People have applied Fibonacci numbers to the market and have found an that the markets move within the boundaries of Fibonacci sequences. For example, if you take a market swing low and then find a swing high, take the difference between the two and multiply by .382, .50, .618 and then subtract those numbers from the swing high, the markets downward reaction would stop at or very near one of those numbers. I have witnessed it many a time myself and have been able to call when prices would turn and resume their trend.

The people that say it can't be done have very little to zero knowledge of such things. I personally know one gentleman that called the top in the '87 crash 5 years before it happened. He as 2 days too early and 2 points too high - and remember, he called it 5 years before it happened. And by the way, he makes really good money trading the markets.

I have an idea of how he did it, but the logic behind it is rather difficult and I am having trouble grasping it.

Yes, that markets are predictable, but it takes a lot of study and a lot of time.

Answer 2

There is a widely read book on stock market by Gordon Malkiel called 'Random walk down the Wall street'. The theme of the book is that one can predict the stock market. This is the widely held belief and the book underscores this idea. There can be methods created to predict the direction of the market but it is beyond the reach of the common invetor and they make the majority of investors the ideas don't get into their hands making it a truely random process. Only professionals can device methods that predict the direction, infact there are millions of such methods and the truth is only a handful them work. Some of them even have color codings given to the way the market moves and some color changes can predict the movement it seems. This is an esoteric scincne to grasp to the layman and so the market remain random.

Answer 3

Predicting the stock market is like predicting the weather. You have a general idea of what it's going to do, but the degree of accuracy is nowhere near perfect.

If a cold front moves into an area of high humidity, you get rain... usually.

If a company files for chapter 11 bankruptcy, the stock price is going to go way down... usually.

Now... for the second half of this...

What's the weather going to be like six months from now, now that the cold front has arrived and created some rain?

What's the stock price of that company going to be six months from now, now that the stock price is under $3 per share?

Answer 4

Yes, they are supposed to predict that. The only exceptions are financial advisors working with companies like Dimensional or Vanguard who go with a buy and hold approach. Those advisors also don't charge as much, either. Of course, very few financial advisors can actually predict anything accurately and beat the market after fees and whatnot.

Answer 5

I think the best way to find out where the market is going is to see what the best investors are buying and selling. You can find this information at http://www.top10traders.com - this is a free site that lets you create a portfolio of stocks with $100,000 in "play" money. Each day the site ranks the best performing portfolios, so you can see how your picks perform compared to other investors. You can read posts on investing from the best traders, as well as share your own investing ideas. There is a charting feature, so you can see how your portfolio performs compared to the S&P 500. Also, you can create your own "group" so that you can see how you are doing compared to your friends.

Here are this month's best traders:

http://www.top10traders.com/Top10Standings.aspx

Hope this helps.

Answer 6

Y
technically & astrologically

with skill & experiance

Answer 7

Yes.

Answer 8

Short answer, No.