With all the snow up north, I've heard no advance warnings of potentially severe flooding this Spring. Why?

Question

I see a lot of weather coverage about the heavy snows at the moment but little is being said about the potential impact of the thaw. Are agencies looking ahead and if so, why aren't we hearing about it? No one needs another New Orleans-style FEMA response.

Answer 1

Good question. There are several ways to look at this. If there is a slow melt most of the precip will wind up in the water table and not in runoff into the streams and river basins and would therefore not contribute to any potential flooding. If it it a rapid warming we may well have some river flooding with ice melt combined with the snow melt. In either case I think we won't know until later this spring before any announcements will be made. Generally flooding concerns don't get published till the event is in progress.

Answer 2

Having lived in the northern states my whole life, I've seen plenty of snow melt cycles. No matter the quantity of snow, you can't predict a flood because you can't predict the spring thaw. If it suddenly goes up to 60F and you've got 3 feet of snow on the ground, it will melt quickly and the stream runoff will flood. But if it melts more gradually, it evaporates, seeps into the ground (once unfrozen) and runs off normally into the streams, lakes, and rivers. Also, you have to consider the natural reservoir "deficit" ... are lake and stream levels abnormally low? If so, they will hold a lot of the spring thaw without flooding. And as far as this winter goes, this is not a historic record snowfall by any means. It's a lot compared to the past few abnormally warm winters for sure, but this is just not a lot of snow. I would assume NOAA is watching all this go down as are state agencies. But I wouldn't expect any kind of official prognostication until the spring thaw weather begins. So relax and enjoy the snow while we have it!

Answer 3

I think you will be hearing a lot about flooding in the days to come. A huge storm is forcasted to come off the pacific and move across the country to the midwest around the 23rd which will not only produce warm temps but produce huge rainfall amounts which will create a huge flood potential where the ground has been frozen and snow covered for a while now. Expect a potential blizzard from the rockies to northern Iowa, southern minn and western Wisc. Illinois, missouri, Indiana will be under the gun for huge flooding possibilites as will parts of the NE come the 24th and 25th. Expect huge severe weather outbreak in the south on the 23rd-24th.

Answer 4

The media doesnt consider the future though, its all about the right now (and maybe the 7 days to come). I live in holland, and we have a Watermanagement Institution, im not sure if the Us has the same, these institutions will take these things into account hopefully, and do the best they cant.

youre absolutely right that could be a potential risk. Though it all depends on how fast it thaws. if the weather slowly warms up it shouldnt be a problem. if hte weather suddenly warms a lot of water is going to have to go everywhere in a short time.

Answer 5

I live in an area affected by snow melt flooding. The determining factor is the rate at which the snow melts. If we get a sudden early prolonged warm up in tempurature, then we do get a warning, usually on the local news.

Answer 6

They get a lot of snow every year. I used to live in NE and we ALWAYS had HUGE storms - in the spring there is "mud season" when it all mets and the river might rise a little. The geography is not very privvy to flooding.

Answer 7

Lake effect snow is not made up of a lot of water. Therefore when it melts it does not create a lot of water.

Answer 8

Not yet but it will happen, especially in Upstate Ny with all that snow

Answer 9

because there is not that much snow