Why can't geologist predict when an earthquake will happen?

Answer 1

Most earthquakes occur because of movements along transform plate fault boundaries. Here, you have two plates moving past each other that occasionally get "stuck" along their margins. Where they come into contact and can't move, pressure builds up. When the power pushing the plate exceeds the power holding the plate from moving at this point, the plates move suddenly, causing an earthquake.

So scientists can tell where an earthquake is likely to happen, like along the San Andreas Fault. They can look at historical records and get an estimate of how often earthquakes tend to happen along certain transform faults, too. But ovreall there are just so mant factors going in, like the particular point or points where the plates are stuck, and the pressure holding them stuck vs. the pressure pushing the plate, that it would be very hard to predict when you would get the failure that leads to an earthquake.

Answer 2

Please learn some of the unprooved method of prediction.Methods for prediction of earthquakes & Tsunami
.Even though we do not have fool proof system to fore warn earthquakes some of the changes in nature or in the behaviors of animals and birds may help to decide the situations.
1. Seismic gape: - The earthquake at a particular place may occur for every fixed gape of time. By knowing the past records of the quakes affected at that place may help to decide when the earthquake is next due.

2. Planet position.: - When the stress is accumulated at the tectonic plate boundary and the same time if the position of more than 2 planets comes in a straight line this may help to accelerate the earthquakes. There fore the full moon days and new moon days are more vulnerable days for earthquakes. Some time this method fails why? Think of a sick patient. New moon and full moon days are dangerous for only sick patents. These days will not affect the healthy people. The same way if there is no accumulated stress at the tectonic plate boundaries no need to worry about the planet positions.

3. Sun rays falling method: - If you observe the position of the sun rays falling on our wall at a particular time on all days it should form an angular infinity symbol. If there is any deviation in its path it means that there is some difference in height of the earth. That means some strain noticed at that place. Somebody claims that they can predict the place of epicenter by observing this. The laser beam measuring method of earth height from satellite also will help.

4. MCDB:- Chinese scientist claims that they can predict up to 60 % accuracy by sensing electro magnetic rays.

5. Cloud forming: - Few hours to a few days before the occurrence of earthquakes a cloud reader claims that he has noticed a peculiar mosaic type of formation .We may also notice some lightening in the sky.

6. By sound :- A professor from Ajmeer University claims that he was able to hear a low frequency noise under 125 meter depth in a bore well. The same thing was reported by one Mr. Nair that he heard some roaring noise under the earth one week before the occurrence of earthquake in Gujarat.

7. By frequency of waves :- Mr Richter Allen of Berkley University claims that he can decide the magnitude of earthquake just 4 seconds after observing the frequency of the primary wave. Present method needs the full seismographic picture to find the real magnitude that too from as many places as possible to have fairly accurate results. His claim has got some truth because when there is a slip of bigger tectonic plate the frequency of quake will be less. If a small tectonic plate slips the frequency of the waves will be more.
8. There are several changes in nature and in the behaviors of animals and birds can be observed before an earthquake and Tsunami. I wrote several articles on these subjects. In my future letters I will explain what all those changes are. Also I will write what we should do and what we should not do before, at that time and after the earthquakes. This will be more helpful to save the people at least in future. Please visit my web
My web site
http://www.freewebs.com/quakealert/

My Community in Orkut
http://www.orkut.com/Community.aspx?cmm=26068261

Presentation slides
http://asia.pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/quake






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Answer 3

Same way you can't predict when you'll fart.