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Antarctic temperatures disagree with climate model predictions
COLUMBUS , Ohio – A new report on climate over the world's southernmost continent shows that temperatures during the late 20th century did not climb as had been predicted by many global climate models.

This comes soon after the latest report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that strongly supports the conclusion that the Earth's climate as a whole is warming, largely due to human activity.

It also follows a similar finding from last summer by the same research group that showed no increase in precipitation over Antarctica in the last 50 years. Most models predict that both precipitation and temperature will increase over Antarctica with a warming of the planet.

David Bromwich, professor of professor of atmospheric sciences in the Department of Geography, and researcher with the Byrd Polar Research Center at Ohio State University, reported on this work at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science at San Francisco.

"It's hard to see a global warming signal from the mainland of Antarctica right now," he said. "Part of the reason is that there is a lot of variability there. It's very hard in these polar latitudes to demonstrate a global warming signal. This is in marked contrast to the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula that is one of the most rapidly warming parts of the Earth."

Bromwich says that the problem rises from several complications. The continent is vast, as large as the United States and Mexico combined. Only a small amount of detailed data is available – there are perhaps only 100 weather stations on that continent compared to the thousands spread across the U.S. and Europe . And the records that we have only date back a half-century.

"The best we can say right now is that the climate models are somewhat inconsistent with the evidence that we have for the last 50 years from continental Antarctica .

"We're looking for a small signal that represents the impact of human activity and it is hard to find it at the moment," he said.

Last year, Bromwich's research group reported in the journal Science that Antarctic snowfall hadn't increased in the last 50 years. "What we see now is that the temperature regime is broadly similar to what we saw before with snowfall. In the last decade or so, both have gone down," he said.

In addition to the new temperature records and earlier precipitation records, Bromwich's team also looked at the behavior of the circumpolar westerlies, the broad system of winds that surround the Antarctic continent.

"The westerlies have intensified over the last four decades of so, increasing in strength by as much as perhaps 10 to 20 percent," he said. "This is a huge amount of ocean north of Antarctica and we're only now understanding just how important the winds are for things like mixing in the Southern Ocean." The ocean mixing both dissipates heat and absorbs carbon dioxide, one of the key greenhouse gases linked to global warming.

Some researchers are suggesting that the strengthening of the westerlies may be playing a role in the collapse of ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula.

"The peninsula is the most northern point of Antarctica and it sticks out into the westerlies," Bromwich says. "If there is an increase in the westerly winds, it will have a warming impact on that part of the continent, thus helping to break up the ice shelves, he said.

"Farther south, the impact would be modest, or even non-existent."

Bromwich said that the increase in the ozone hole above the central Antarctic continent may also be affecting temperatures on the mainland. "If you have less ozone, there's less absorption of the ultraviolet light and the stratosphere doesn't warm as much."

That would mean that winter-like conditions would remain later in the spring than normal, lowering temperatures.

"In some sense, we might have competing effects going on in Antarctica where there is low-level CO2 warming but that may be swamped by the effects of ozone depletion," he said. "The year 2006 was the all-time maximum for ozone depletion over the Antarctic."

Bromwich said the disagreement between climate model predictions and the snowfall and temperature records doesn't necessarily mean that the models are wrong.

"It isn't surprising that these models are not doing as well in these remote parts of the world. These are global models and shouldn't be expected to be equally exact for all locations," he said.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2007-02/osu-atd021207.php

2007-02-15 12:27:48 · 8 answers · asked by **Anti-PeTA** 5 in Science & Mathematics Weather

8 answers

I agree. Also people haven't kept weather or temperature records until like a two hundred years ago. What about the IceAge?! If there were democratic people back then who kept records they would be all panicked and "Oh the world has come to an end!"But what happened? It all got back to normal. Now it's just getting a little warmer. Big whoop.

2007-02-15 12:34:52 · answer #1 · answered by Anonymous · 2 1

Global warming is at the fore front because politicians found how to use a new platform to get re-elected. The world leaders use it because they found ways to make money at it. This is a made up problem just like Global Cooling in the 1970's. Wake up people. I agree we need to be more efficient with our resources, and we should fine and jail companies who are dumping into our rivers maliciously. I want to stop the raiforest destruction, but to say that global warming is a serious man made issue and we need to destroy the American economy and bow down to the rest of the world certainly does not float my boat. Follow the money on this one and you will see that it is all for political gain and grant money for those scientists who profit off of the government if global warming stays at the front of the issues. Look deep into the Keoto (sp?) Treaty, first of all they took jets to a non-central resort location. Not very environmentally concious. THen in the parameters of the treaty they have a clause that makes it so you can buy or sell polution credits. This is all about shifting wealth and breaking down the United States. This is painfully obvious, just look at peoples agenda. The earth's mean temperature has risen .6 degrees C in the past 125 years. Greenland's icecaps have gotten colder in the past 10 years. The Scientists who do not gain anything on their posisition will tell you that the earth has a natural progression and this is what we are seeing. The UN report is made up of POLITICIANS not a good spread of scientists. THere are as many or more scientists who believe that man in NOT the reason and it is over hyped, but their voice is not heard in the LIberal Mainstream Media. This issue is 99% political, and an attempt to make the USA a socialist nation, and eventually communisim. WAKE UP AMERICA, IT IS TIME TO BE AMERICANS. FOR THE PEOPLE BY THE PEOPLE. STOP THE LIES

2007-02-15 15:26:12 · answer #2 · answered by 4sanity 3 · 1 0

basically is going to coach you in those cases extensive unfold lack of understanding is appropriate. i in my view think of polls and surveys in accordance with medical matters should not be carried out interior the regularly occurring public. generally the end result point out an endless fake effect or finished lack of understanding of the subject. prepare that ninety seven% od climatologist are mendacity. You cant. besides that, there are a number of different fields of technology that are in touch in worldwide climate exchange. worldwide is undeniably actual. that's trouble-free and straightforward to coach. there have been 4 ice a while interior the final million years. After each and each ice age is a warming era. we are in one now. you will could be an fool to disclaim that. there is not any such difficulty as an "evolutionist". Evolution is technology, no longer a philosophy or faith. Evolution is and has been shown persistently. you are able to deny it in case you si choose. whether, you've got an settle for clarification on your denial and an selection. As of yet there is not any selection. there is not any selection to worldwide warming. It basically exist. The confrontation is interior the outcomes people have had. there is not any longer something close to a consensus like there is with evolution. just about a hundred% of all scientist trust evolution. there is nowhere close to that style of settlement with reference to the human consequence upon worldwide climate exchange. comparable ole comparable ole, ignorant denial. mixture in politics and you have a prepare smash.

2016-10-02 05:22:16 · answer #3 · answered by ? 4 · 0 0

It's becoming more so a publicity thing now to genreate profit. First, it was Global Cooling, now it's Global Warming. These Climatologists probably are still driving big F-150's arounf like everyone else, but there SO concerned.

2007-02-15 13:04:18 · answer #4 · answered by Anonymous · 2 0

The government first never acknowledged global warming. When they debated about it, they had some "scientist" say that it's not true. But now they know it does exist and are tryin to work with other countries to slow it down.

2007-02-15 13:53:49 · answer #5 · answered by queenoftheworld 4 · 0 2

Explanation for Antarctica's temperature:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=17257

A better version of the snowfall aspect:
http://ff.org/centers/csspp/library/co2weekly/20060823_1/20060823_1_04.html
points out that year to year variability is too high to find a significant trend in Antarctic snowfall.

For the scientific basis of global climate change, please refer to:
http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/docs/WG1AR4_SPM_Approved_05Feb.pdf

2007-02-15 16:08:21 · answer #6 · answered by wdmc 4 · 0 0

because if they tell, the world will become a diseaster before global warming

2007-02-16 03:31:03 · answer #7 · answered by Pistonsfan101 5 · 0 0

I just don't know WHAT to beleive anymore. I just want to be a climatologist, that's it.

2007-02-15 13:18:22 · answer #8 · answered by ClimateRox 2 · 1 1

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