Is the groundhog shadow/weather issue factual or just plain folklore?

Answer 1

History
A groundhog.
A groundhog.

Around the fifth century, the European Celts believed that animals had certain supernatural powers on special days that were half-way between the Winter Solstice and Spring Equinox.[citation needed] Folklore from Germany and France indicated that when marmots and bears came out of their winter dens too early, they were frightened by their shadow and retreated back inside for four to six weeks.[citation needed]

The earliest known American reference to Groundhog Day can be found at the Historical Society of Berks County in Reading, Pennsylvania. The reference was made Feb. 4, 1841 in Morgantown, Berks County, Pennsylvania storekeeper James Morris' diary: "Last Tuesday, the 2nd, was Candlemas day, the day on which, according to the Germans, the Groundhog peeps out of his winter quarters and if he sees his shadow he pops back for another six weeks nap, but if the day be cloudy he remains out, as the weather is to be moderate."

In the U.S. the tradition derives from a Scottish poem:

As the light grows longer
The cold grows stronger
If Candlemas be fair and bright
Winter will have another flight
If Candlemas be cloud and rain
Winter will be gone and not come again
A farmer should on Candlemas day
Have half his corn and half his hay
On Candlemas day if thorns hang a drop
You can be sure of a good pea crop

This tradition also stems from similar beliefs associated with Candlemas Day [1] and Hedgehog Day. Candlemas, also known as the Purification of the Virgin or the Presentation, coincides with the earlier pagan observance Imbolc.

An alternate theory as to the origins of groundhog day dates back to Native American rituals. Many ancient tribes believed that unless a man's life is paid for by another man's, the majesty of the the ancient nature gods cannot be appeased and weather divination cannot occur. The usual chosen vessel for sacrifice was the portliest, most well-fed member of the tribe who would be ritually fed during the lean winter months with the choicest foods. They believed that the execution of such a portly person would be more pleasing to the immortal gods, who would then grant them the boon of a short winter; which is similar to the biblical tradition of sacrificing a fat lamb or oxen.

The victims neck would be cut and as he died the shaman would ask if he could see his own shadow, and if he saw his shadow, it meant the gods were displeased with the victim and winter would continue for another 3 moons. If he did not see his shadow it meant he was ready to join the gods and winter would be short, giving rise to a long planting and hunting season.

With the arrival of European explorers and settlers, and the conversion of many tribes into Christianity, the practice of human sacrifice was predictably frowned upon. In time a fat groundhog came to be sacrificed, with the shaman using his empathic skills to determine if the creature could see its own shadow. By the late 19th century and the rise of the Victorian animal cruelty movement, groundhogs themselves were no longer allowed to be sacrificed and the entire ritual was turned into a secular tourist attraction which in Canada came to reside in Wiarton and in the United States, in Punxsutawney.

In western countries in the Northern Hemisphere the official first day of Spring is about six weeks after Groundhog Day, on March 20 or 21. About 1,000 years ago, before the adoption of the Gregorian calendar when the date of the equinox drifted in the Julian calendar, the spring equinox fell on March 16 instead. This was exactly six weeks after February 2. Assuming that the equinox marked the first day of spring in certain medieval cultures, as it does now in western countries, Groundhog Day occurred exactly six weeks before spring. Therefore, if the groundhog saw his shadow on Groundhog Day there would be six more weeks of winter. If he didn't, there would be 42 more days of winter. In other words, the Groundhog Day tradition may have begun as a bit of folk humor.

Alternatively, the custom could have been a folk embodiment of the confusion created by the collision of two calendar's systems. Some ancient traditions marked the change of season at cross-quarter days such as Imbolc when daylight first makes significant progress against the night. Other traditions held that Spring did not begin until the length of daylight overtook night at the Vernal Equinox. So an arbiter, the groundhog / hedgehog, was incorporated as a yearly custom to settle the two traditions. Sometimes Spring begins at Imbolc, and sometimes Winter lasts 6 more weeks until the Equinox.

Answer 2

Folklore, though there was probably some truth to it once upon a time. Animals are very good at sensing weather changes and preparing for hard winters.
But I don't know how the groundhog could NOT see his shadow when he comes out with all the camera flashes going off, or how he could NOT be scared with all the people around him, except they have done it for year. And if its not afraid of all of that stuff at that point that would mean it wouldn't get scared of its shadow either so how could it be acurate anymore?

Answer 3

The actual day is a tradition from years past, the weather "prediction" is the folklore part of the tradition. Historically however; the groundhog is about 90% accurate....

Answer 4

it really is folklore . . . only those who were attempting to make rhyme or reason out of a large, puzzling global. there's a large, fat groundhog who has a burrow below easily one of my sheds--yet I nevertheless watch the elements forecast on television.

Answer 5

It's not fact. It's not fiction. It's not folklore.

It's a concept.

Give Punxy its due.

Or you might live to regret it. Again and again...