is there a program that can tell you what land prices will be in the future?

Question

like a database

Answer 1

Anyone who tells you what land prices are going to be in the future is just giving you their best guess. The property market fluctuates. The rate of growth(and sometimes lass) is not a constant and can be effected by several variable including interest rates, availability of property(supply and demand), land use laws and local development

Answer 2

There is no way to tell what land values will be in the future. However, take any city and ask a realtor which way the "urban sprawl" is heading. In other words, is the north side being built up? The south side? etc....

The areas in which the developement seems to be heading would be the best area to buy in. Supply and demand would say that as developers move in that direction, they are going to want land...high demand means higher prices.

Wish I could be more specific. If you find such a database, PLEASE let me know.

Answer 3

While there is no way to tell what will happen in the future, in a recent article by Champion Walsh [published in the Wall Street Journal...

A Fed Study Says that Land Prices Increasingly Drive
Housing Markets

WASHINGTON -- Housing prices in big U.S. cities have increasingly reflected underlying land value rather than building value since the mid-1980s, and that trend is likely to continue, according to a Federal Reserve study released Tuesday.

In the 46 biggest metro housing markets, land's share of property prices increased on average to 51% in 2004 from 32% in 1984, according to the study authored by Michael Palumbo, chief economist in the Fed's flow of funds section, and Morris Davis, a former Fed economist now at the University of Wisconsin.

The increase was especially sharp during the 1998-2004 housing boom, when land's share of property values gained 11 percentage points, the study said.

"With residential land having appreciated so significantly over the past 20 years around the country, the future course of land prices is expected to play an even more important role in governing home prices -- in terms of average appreciation rates and volatility -- in the next two decades," according to the study.

The report concludes that land's increased share of property values "could mean faster home-price appreciation, on average, and possibly larger swings in home prices."

Even if land appreciation returns to the slower pace seen before the 1998-2004 boom, cumulative gains in land value mean that house prices might rise more quickly on average than they did before the boom, it said.

Regionally, relatively expensive housing markets have seen somewhat bigger increases in land's share of prices in the 1998-2004 period, but the current housing boom has been marked by rapid appreciation of residential land "just about everywhere," according to the report.

The Fed study also found that at some point since 1984 most large U.S. cities have gone through one pronounced price cycle in which residential land lost value for several years, usually after several years of rapid appreciation.

"In real terms, land prices have generally taken several years to go from peak to trough, and the subsequent recovery from these price declines has generally occurred at a more gradual pace," the study said.

I hope this helps. Please let me know if you have any further questions.

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Answer 4

Buy a crystal ball.