Anyone believes there has been a structural shift in the US economy where economic expansion last longer?

Question

Given that the last few expansions have lasted longer than usual, is this due to the Fed understanding the economy better, simply chance or any specific economic factor
Thanks for your comments

Answer 1

I'm afraid I can't really answer your question, as it is not precise enough. What time period are you talking about, what do you mean by a structural shift and what expansions are you talking about? I can't really answer questions on your country unless you are more specific I am afraid, however I shall have a stab.

Economists use structural shift to mean a change in focus of employment in an industrial sector, e.g. primary to secondary. I feel historically speaking that the USA has been fairly stagnant in terms of its progression from sector to sector over the past ten years, as it is fairly 'developed' already. The only notable shift in the USA has been the expansion of the quarternary sector. Whilst the shift is not major, it has reaped certain rewards. California, if taken on its own, is the world's eighth largest economy. However I do not feel this shift is due to anything more than simple economic growth, and the need for more innovative production techniques, to answer your question on any specific economic factor. The US Federal Reserve is key to monitoring the US economy, however the recession in 2001 does not indicate the Federal Reserve understands the economy better. Compared with the UK, the US economy is not as stable. The UK has experienced growth since 1997, when New Labour came into power.

I appreciate this is not a thorough analysis that you may be looking for; with a bit more precision I would be able to get more to the root of your problem/query.

Answer 2

Not to be facetious, but we should probably check back in 100 years. As a statistical sample, one or two growth periods isn't much to go on and there are just too many variables involved.