How did Robert E. Lee think the South might win the Civil War despite its weakness compared to then North?

Answer 1

I disagree about the notion that Gettysburg "decided" the war one way or the other. Of course, it was an important turning point, perhaps even more so psychologically than militarily. But no more so that Grant's victory at Vicksburg the same week! (The later was more tactically important, since it accomplished the cutting off of the Confederacy beyond the Mississippi.)

The problem with this question is that it assumes that both sides need to do the same thing to win, so that the 'weaker' side (in absolute terms) is almost certainly bound to lose. But that's not the case.

As I believe only one person has mentioned, the key reason Lee and the South could think they would win is because THEIR assignment was not as difficult as that of the North. It is much more dificult to CONQUER an area than to defend the land you live on -- to stay on the OFFENSIVE, maintain long supply lines through enemey territory, move armies across longer distances all along the borders of a large territory (vs. moving them through the interior of one's own land), set up garrisons to KEEP control of whatever land you gain. . Add to that the likely greater WILL to fight of those who believe they are defending their own land ('independence'), and the real possiblity of gaining some foreign support (from trading partners, or those who like the idea of TWO weaker nations instead of one stronger one) and it is clear the South COULD have won the war. ..

What it took for the North to win was NOT just its ability to produce more, but the understanding and tactical skill to wage the kind of all-out war on many fronts at once that was necessary (which Grant and Sherman understood, but their predecessors in the East did not), along with maintaining the POLITICAL WILL, which includes the support of the people. In fact, in the summer of 1864 things were bogged down enough that it looked like the South WOULD win --via the Northern polls, because people were war-weary and it appeared Lincoln was about to lose his bid for re-election. (Key victories in September to October, esp. Sherman's taking of Atlanta, changed people's perspective.)

Related to all this, Lee and the South had a good precedent to go by -- there were many parallels between what they were attempting American Revolution. . . a war against a much wealthier, well-trained and better equpped force. Their hope was that, just as Britain had eventually tired of the war effort, so too would the North (and it nearly happened!) In fact, independence movements are TYPICALLY "weaker" in the absoute sense, but with the sort of advantages mentioned above, they can and often have succeeded.

Oddly, Lee arguably made some key MISTAKES in carrying out this DEFENSIVE assignment. He was prone to go on OFFENSE when possible. This led to victories in the field, but also depleted his resources and manpower, which he could not afford. (On the other hand, one or two more such victories --e.g., at Gettysburg-- might well have led to the sort or PSYCHOLOGICAL victory needed to convince the North that it wasn't worth the cost.)

Answer 2

Lee knew for certain he could win the war. He came oh so close to doing that. If you look into very detailed history of the war, and Gettysburg in particular, you will see what was probably the turning point of the war. Gettysburg was an accident. Had it not accidentally started when it where it did, Lee would have continued his march north. As it turns out, the accident happened before Lee could properly prepare and since they weren't ready, they didn't have enough men and suffered some heavy losses.

Even after suffering several defeats in the south and during his pursuit at the end of the war, Lee was often quoted as saying he could have turned the war around, had he the time to make into the southern Appalachians and turn the war into more a guerilla style combat. He was a brilliant military mind ahead of his time. He was obviously confident in his abilities as a leader, but he also fought with honor, and knew when the time to surrender had come.

Answer 3

I agree with Clayton B - Lee never thought he would win, not when the CSA was fighting a war on many fronts (the naval blockade of the Atlantic Coast, the Western theatre), was not as well-equipped, and was fighting against a worthy opponent (yes the North DID have good leaders - Sherman, Thomas, Rosencrans, Buell). The Southern political leadership and Lee were looking for a political victory, since the North had already won some military victories.

Answer 4

He felt that if Confederate forces were aggressive enough and took the war into the north, the northerners would quickly tire of massive losses of men and of the great expense of prosecuting the war. The anti-war sentiment in the north was not inconsiderable - so-called "Peace Democrats" or "copperheads" were a major challenge for northern war efforts. Quite a few northerners felt that the north had no business interfering with southern states rights - i.e. the right to keep slaves. Lee came very close to succeeding, as it turned out. But he misjudged the attitudes of people in the border states and the resolve of the northern leadership. Lucky for us, eh?

Answer 5

Robert E. Lee, who had attended army school with many of the men he later fought with and against, had great respect for all of those men. As a man from a border state, Virginia, he was very torn. He was not completely convinced that the southern objectives were right and obtainable. But ultimately, his alliance was to his state, which seceded from the Union. At that time, your alliance was going to be with your state. Nationalism was not a word understood by the American people yet. You allied with your state, not your country. He fought very hard for the south, but the whole thing very much saddened and sickened him. He wished it had never happened and he knew he was up against a strong force with his northern adversaries and former school mates. But the southern government, not R.E. Lee were counting on the British coming to their defense due to their supply of cotton. What they didn't count on, due to a basic lack of education in the south at that time, was the fact that Britain had found a new and cheaper source of cotton in India, whom they colonialized after loosing the US colonies.

Answer 6

I don't know if this is entirely correct, but I read thru history books that RELee never wanted the burden of leading the Confederate States and felt they should not leave the U.S. However, once they did and he was called he vowed to do everything in his power to lead the southern states army to victory. However, once he knew the cause was lost, he did everything he could to talk sense into the few generals willing to listen.

Sadly, the slave owner family Davis was unwilling to listen to Gen. Lee, and take advantage of his family history of military magnificence and honors earned at West Point. When Lee was given the opportunity to sign the document ending the war he was relieved and happy to do so.

He was so well thought of and so highly regarded by U.S. Grant and Sherman and Lincoln, that R.E. Lee was allowed to keep his sword and horse and was given as escort to his home after signing the documents ending the war.

I believe that as bad as the war went, it could have been much worse for the entire south if Lee had not been in charge. One reason Atlanta was burned and other cities in the south were saved was because of Lee not inspite of him.

I have always felt the War between the sates was the most ill conceived effort ever put forth by any group of humans, but have had nothing but admiration for R.E. Lee because of the honor with which he carried himself during the conflict.

The entire Lee family had a history of honor and exception and Lighthorse Harry Lee, his father, was an honored General during the Revolutionary War.

p.s. I share a birthday date with R.E. Lee (January 19)!

Answer 7

lee thought he cold win the war by staying in the south. And making the north come to him. he knew that men fought harder when they were defending their own homes. plus it lets him choose the ground he fought on.

and make the north lose so many men that they would have no choice but to sue for peace and it was working till he went north and got surprised at Gettysburg

edit
arch angel

lee was never quoted saying that he wanted to start a guerrilla war in fact lee was dead set against a guerrilla war. Davis was the one who sent orders to lee and told him to retreat his forces into the mountains.but lee didn't follow those orders and instead surrendered his forces to grant

Answer 8

He came within a hair's breadth from winning the war, ...
Consider the following:

if he didn't lose T Jackson at Chancslorvillei
if he took the high ground on the first day of Gettysburg,
if he found high ground to defend, rather than attacking Devil's Den and Little Round Top on the Second.
if Col. Chamberlain didn't order a fix bayonet charge at Little Round Top.
if he didn't order Pickett's division to attack over open ground on the final day of battl.e

What if any one of the above didn't happen or happened, he would've won the Battle, the North would've sued for peace, the British would've allied themselves or at least recognized the south....so close, yet so far.... With his brilliant generalship, he nearly won the war.

Answer 9

The south had better military leadership. Lincoln went through a lot of generals before he found one that could beat the south.

Also, it was a war of attrition. The factories of the north could supply more war materials then the south could make or buy.

Answer 10

Because the South could win by not losing. It only had to hold out for long enough.