I have heard that, according to chaos theory, we cannot rule out the possibility that planets could be ejected from the solar system.
Even without chaos theory, the math required to predict a system this complex, for any significant length of time, is quite complex.
Within two standard deviations of a planet's projected position, how far in the future can we predict it's future position? Is there any way to measure the prediction's degree of certainty?
2007-02-11 07:01:35 · 4 answers · asked by Tom D 4 in Science & Mathematics ➔ Other - Science
OK - the question isn't "can we predict" the motion, but "how far".
Suitable answers would include:
1) I don't know, but the answer might be roughly calculated with this technique
2) 500 years (to pick an arbitrary number) and here's my equations
3) I don't know, but it reminds me of a solution applied to this different problem...
2007-02-11 07:39:21 · update #1
It depends on which planet you want to talk about.
The "best" long-term prediction is the DE406 ephemeris, produced by JPL. It goes out to the year 3000, and should be good to a few meters.
The shape of the orbits can be predicted for 55 million years and more, but not where a planet will be on that orbit -- see the second link
2007-02-11 09:26:58 · answer #1 · answered by morningfoxnorth 6 · 2⤊ 0⤋
There is no simple answer to that question, because it's not a simple matter of saying, "Okay, up to X years, we can reliably predict where everything is going to be in the solar system, after which we can less reliably predict where everything is going to be in the solar system". THe solar system has many parts to it, so, for example, the behavior of Jupiter's moons may be relatively independent of the large-scale changes in the solar system, or for another example, certain perturabances such as precession of the planets may be chaotic, without seriously affecting the the long term average expected behavior of the planets. However, here's a link that more fully addresses your question, and I think the answer you are looking for is that we can more or less expect that serious large scale chaotic behavior in the interior planets of the solar system won't occur within the next 10,000,000 years.
2007-02-11 07:52:46 · answer #2 · answered by Scythian1950 7 · 1⤊ 0⤋
Hi. We are currently not able to solve ANY orbit containing more than two objects with precision. Chaos seems to rule.
2007-02-11 07:05:59 · answer #3 · answered by Cirric 7 · 1⤊ 0⤋
No there isn't. Believe me, i tried.
2007-02-11 07:03:58 · answer #4 · answered by Anonymous · 0⤊ 0⤋