What's the real story on global warming?

Answer 1

SHORT ANSWER:
The world has been warming up for a long time and everything suggests it will continue to do so. How much of this is natural and how much is man-made is open to speculation. There is also debate about how much warmer the world will get and what the effects will be. The consensus is a rise of 2 to 4 degrees Celsius over the next century. This will cause sea levels to rise due to the melting of polar ice caps which in turn will lead to massive human displacement, there will be a shift in weather patterns, more extreme weather, some species will become extinct, others will flourish.

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LONG ANSWER:
Within the scientific community there's much debate about global warming and amongst the many questions raised there are three fundamental ones. One question concerns how much global warming is attributable to human activities and how much is natural, the other two questions are - by how much will the temperature of the earth rise and what will be the consequences.

The planet goes through it's own natural warming and cooling phases. The most recent ice age was the result of a global cooling. About 18,000 years ago the earth entered a state of global warming, the temperatures started to rise, the ice melted and the temperatures have continued to rise ever since. There have been warmer and cooler periods but the general trend has been one of warming. No-one disputes this.

One thing that is being disputed is the effect mankind is having on global warming. But before coming to that, a slight digression as it's important to know that it was about 250 years ago with the advent of the Industrial Revolution that we started burning large amounts of fossil fuels (coal back then) and created machinery and factories that produced substantial quantities of greenhouse gases and other pollutants.

Using science and technology we can get a picture of weather patterns over the last 650,000 years. In the last few hundred years there are detailed weather records we can refer to.

Using this information we can plot a graph showing the rise in temperature up to say 1750 - prior to the Industrial Revolution. This shows an upward trend that we can project forward and see how temperatures would have increased of their own accord.

If we then compare this graph with one showing what has actually happened since 1750 there is a marked difference. Rather than a steady and predictable increase there has been a much sharper rise in temperatures, the difference between the two being in the order of 2 to 3 degrees Celsius. In some parts of the world the rise has been greater and in others it has been lesser.

There are some people who would dispute that mankind has contributed to global warming. They may genuinely believe this to be the case but unfortunately this can not be backed up with any evidence. One of the primary arguments being that the world is warming of it's own accord; this fails to explain why the world has warmed up so much faster in the last 250 years and fails to take into account that the speed at which the temperatures have risen is directly proportional to the levels of industrialisation.

There are corporations and governments who would prefer that global warming wasn't happening. There is a lot of misinformation and what can only be described as propaganda produced by such people. Don't forget that the tobacco industry adamantly refused to accept that smoking was bad for health until just a few years ago.

So... it's an established fact that the world is warming up, a fact that no self-respecting scientist disagrees with. It's also fair to say that man's contribution to global warming to date has been a rise of between 2 and 3 degrees.

Where it gets much harder is predicting what will happen in the future - there's a huge number of factors to be taken into consideration. There’s been substantial research undertaken around the globe by a wide range of institutions. Some of the research is more reliable than others, some of the conclusions are clearly biased and have been produced by people with a vested interest one way or the other.

Often in science the subject in question is specifically the realm of one or two scientific disciplines, global warming comes under the umbrella of many disciplines including climatology, oceanography, geography, biology, meteorology, hydrology and demography. These many disciplines have each studied global warming in different ways, approaching it from different angles, looking at different causes and possibilities. The conclusions are unanimous in that it will continue and mankind is very much to blame. There is however, variability in how things might change in the future.

The most detailed and recent reports predict global temperature rises by the end of this century of between 1.4 and 4.0 degrees Celsius, the worst case scenario being a 6.4 degree rise.

The temperature rises to date have already had serious implications and just a few weeks ago the world bore witness to the first climate refugees when a group of Pacific islanders were forced to evacuate their islands because of rising sea levels. In Siberia one million square kilometres of permafrost (permanently frozen ground) is breaking up and turning into mud and lakes. In mountainous regions glaciers have retreated further than they’ve ever been known to before and large sections of the polar ice caps are melting and crumbling into the sea.

One common error that people make is to confuse weather (short term) with climate (long term). When it's bitterly cold outside and heavy snow is falling it's easy to dismiss global warming and one could be forgiven for prophesising global cooling. Such events are short lived and of little significance to global trends over a long period of time.

As for what will happen in the future? The temperature will continue to rise, firstly because the world is in a warming up phase of it's own accord and secondly because mankind is contributing to climate change; those who have studied global warming are more or less unanimously agreed upon this. Just how much it will warm up by - well, we'll have to wait and see what the future holds but it does seem safe to say that it will certainly be by 2 or 3 degrees, possibly more.

So what will the effects of global warming be? To date we've seen the effects mentioned above, on top of this there has been more extreme weather in recent years than since records began. Eleven of the hottest years on record have occurred in the last 12 years; good news for those who like to top up their tan or enjoy a beer and barbecue.

And in the future? The polar ice caps will continue to melt which will in turn cause sea levels to continue rising. So far this hasn't had a dramatic impact but a rise of just a few feet will be enough to see many coastal areas inundated with water. Major cities such as London, which are at sea level, will see large areas lost to the sea unless enormous construction projects are able to protect them with levees. Some countries won't have the resources to protect their towns and cities and the inhabitants will be forced to relocate. Millions of square miles of agricultural land will be lost.

There will be a shift in weather patterns, like we've seen in recent years but more so. For some this will bring benefits but for others it will bring hardships. Areas of barren wasteland will become fertile and could be used agriculturally but at the same time there will be desertification of fertile areas. New areas suitable for habitation will be formed but at the same time some areas will become uninhabitable. Some places will become wetter, others drier, some will become hotter, others colder. Extreme weather conditions including tornadoes, hurricanes, and floods will be more common - we've already witnessed an increased frequency of such events.

Some plants and animals will have to adapt, others will become extinct. At the same time others will flourish and this may be a good thing or a bad thing. For example, increased grain production would be beneficial but more swarms of locusts would be detrimental.

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When discussing climate change there are many people who will say that mankind is not responsible, it’s a government excuse for raising taxes, there is no evidence etc.

It’s easy to understand this approach – to acknowledge global warming is to admit to being part of the problem and it’s human nature not to want to shoulder responsibility like this. It’s also disconcerting to realise that we may have to make sacrifices and adapt our comfortable lifestyles in order to address the problem.

The concept of global warming isn’t new, it was first discussed about 200 years ago but back then the mechanics weren’t understood. Even now there’s much still to be learned and each time we discover something new it reinforces what we’ve already learned and adds another piece to a very complicated jigsaw.

An interesting point to note is that the numbers of people who dispute mankind’s contribution to global warming is rapidly diminishing. In the face of growing evidence more and more people are accepting that we are at least partly to blame. In countries where global warming has been on the agenda for decades there’s almost no dispute at all and that includes countries where the government has had no involvement, there have been no tax rises and where there’s no advantage in refuting or accepting the evidence.

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Climate change is something I've observed, researched and studied for about 20 years - long before it became a buzz word. I've worked with people on both sides of the fence - the pro's and the anti's, I've read thousands of papers and must have heard every argument for and against many times over. I hope you find the above response to be factual and informative, even if it is on the long side.

Answer 2

The evidence out there does not show a correlation in carbon dioxide level and the small amount of warming that has occured on Earth recently. It has been a lot hotter than this even as recent as several hundred years ago. There are many scientists who do not think global warming is manmade. Check out the site below. You won't see those facts on the network news.

Answer 3

Although man contributes in "global warming," in a way it's a natural and inevitable thing that man just happens to be "speeding up." Pollution's never good. It's effecting the planet. We could either become like venus or have an ice age.

Our planet has a cylce. Ice ages happened. Before an ice age, there's a warming of the planet. We're going through this stage right now... we're just hurrying out planet along, aren't we?

Answer 4

For our area in the north east our weather almanac say the record high for July 14th was on 1936. That was 103 degrees F. It came during a 6 day heat wave. There are intelligent people who are aware of global warming on other planets in our solar system. That is according to NASA. Please remit your dues for the FOS club.

Answer 5

well to break it down yes we a slightly mind you very slightly responsible for it but most of it is the earth goes through cycles every so many years and it follows those cycles we may warm it up by a degree or 2 but thats it .Its just the earth cycle.

Answer 6

It is the result of the cold war. We thought it was the cold war but the damn commies came up with the Idea of a warm war and they are winning.

Answer 7

I DONT BELIEVE IN IT! the bible says God will never flood the Earth again and scientist say that the Ice caps will keep melting until they over flow and flood the Earth. Personally I believe God over scientists!

Answer 8

if you work for or are profiting from the oil and coal industry ,it does not exist,the rest of us a pretty scared right now for our and children's future.

Answer 9

Earth is getting warmer.

Answer 10

Mankind is responsible; pollution.