simple answer to explain the law of probabilty, to a 10 year old?

Answer 1

We see variations all around, not only in forms, but in routine activities or behavioral events... like say, the onset of seasons, the amount of rainfall in a month... the performance of students in a class in the language test... you take any event and it involves variation.. and this phenomenon of natural variation needs to be studied and quantified, in order to influence the result in our favor or at best to take suitable measures (Eg expected failure of rains in a month) to face the adverse situation..

Statistics, a branch of applied maths deals with the study of variations - both from natural or random causes and induced treatments such as in a scientific study..

The tools (say set of steps /formulae) used are called statistic and the findings are expressed in various ways such as mean (probable value around which the attribute shall lie in the population - represented by sample if it is large - studied), range (probable dispersion or variation around the mid value worked out above), correlation coeft (intensity of relationship between two related variables studied), regression eft (extent of dependency of a dependent variable on selected independent variables) etc etc. The level of accuracy can also be indicated as Probability level...

This statistical methodologies (involving probability theories) are of immense value in science where the variations are studied to generate useful generalities... Eg the role of fertiliser to augment crop production - the yield progressively increases for each crop as the level of nutrient is increased up to a level... then it starts falling down... indicating that the fertiliser becomes toxic after certain level... So the farmer can use the results to get maximum economic yield by applying the highest economical dose..

There are parametric and non parametric tests - the latter for variations not following a "normal trend" such as in humans who are highly variable in behaviour... It is a big and interesting subject that had helped scientists to solve / address many problems...

Answer 2

tell the newborn that regulation is like sport: someone wins and someone loses, and basically in certain situations they draw! A regulation agency performs a recreation on behalf of a goodie or a baddie in a room surrounded through those who search for advice from very dusty books the position thoughts are informed about naughty people doing similar issues to those done through the guy/female in chains in the tremendous room. Twelve people (a jury) are chosen, to make certain what occurs to the pereson in the chains, because a policeman has suggested they might were naughty. the adult men on the candies aspect , and then those on the baddies aspect take it in turns to ask quite anybody very awkward questions. those people asking the questions are from regulation corporations. If the twelve people say the supposedly "naughty individual" is responsible, then the baddie's crew have lost and the goodie's crew have gained. both way, the goodie's and the baddie's communities all get dissimilar money from someplace or different, and all bypass out and get steaming inebriated at the same time as discussing each and everything which has lengthy gone on, in spite of the decide declaring they could't do the type of aspect. bypass on, then - YOU clarify it!"

Answer 3

Use a visual example. Try socks. Take 9 black socks and 1 white (or any combination) and put them in a bag. Then explain there will be 9 chances out of ten to get a black sock and one chance out of ten to get a white one.

If that's understood you can go on to percentages. 90% chance of black, etc.

So, probability tells us the chance something will happen.

Answer 4

take a coin.

it will have head and tail.

when we toss the coin, we get HEAD or TAIL.

we are now having two possible events.
one is getting head and the other one is getting tail.
when head occurs, tail cannot occur and vice versa.
hence the chance of getting head, shall be any one of the possible two events, ie, head or tail.

hence the chance of getting head shall be
1 (number of event expected) / 2 {number of total events - 1 for head and 1 for tail}

we speak chance in terms of possibility.

possibility of HEAD = 0.5
possibility of TAIL = 0.5
the sum of possibilities of all the individual events shall be equal to 1

Answer 5

take five cups a put a bean under one of em and shuffle them around. Then make him choose a cup and once that cup is eliminated, then explain that he now has a 1/4 shot, then1/3 shot, and so on.