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I am suppose to imagine that I have planned a business venture that requires a series of ten independent events to occure for the business to succeed.

2007-02-08 00:04:22 · 2 answers · asked by Jen 4 in Science & Mathematics Mathematics

2 answers

I am not sure but I think if these ten events "Have to occur" for a business to succeed. Then, in order to increase the chance of this success, you could perform the events parallel rather than in a series, as long as one does not have to wait for another to complete. Does having more than one occurance of any event increase the chances?
What can be changed:
1. The sequence in which the events run ( from a series structure to a parallel)
2. The occurance of the events ( running more of the same event to increase one's chances)
3. The time for each event to run its course.

I also think, if an event runs its course and produces an outcome. If this outcome is favorable and it is this outcome that will increase your chances then it only seems logical the more of this favorable outcome you would have the greater your chances of success at this level.
However, remember events produce events so for every event to exist it had to be created by some past event, and will lead to a future event occuring as well.
If I had no restrictions I'd run my events as a series of parallel events. That is to say, all events at one time, but a series of each group. All ten would start at the same time, upon completion of the last of these events the next group of ten would begin, if and only if, occurance does in fact increase one's chance
If the ten events Must Run In A Series, then the only factor you can change is the time between ending one event to starting the next. Once an event begins you have little control over how long it will take, or the outcome of that event.
A final note, Restrictions will decrease your chance of success so will one event have to run before another and will the first event place a restriction on any of the remaining future events? For example, you may seek finacial backing early on, but those who supply the funding for this business will now have a prominent voice in how the business is run ( a serious restriction), even to the point of where it is operated from.
If none of this matters then the goal should be to run more than one occurance at the same time, but you need to find the threshold ( the point where running any more of that event will not change the outcome). Perhaps it is 25, for example, then i'd run all ten events at the same time, each consisting of 25 occurances of itself for a total of 250 independent events in parallel.

2007-02-08 00:32:30 · answer #1 · answered by Anonymous · 0 0

If using a condom is 80% effective (for safety), then using one 10 times is 0.8^10 = 0.107 = only 11% effective. Repeated multiplication by a proper fraction whittles down the size of the answer. So to increase your chance of success, shorten the series of independent events your success depends on.

In logic, a fallacy known as "slippery slope" is closely related to this.

2007-02-08 00:17:53 · answer #2 · answered by Philo 7 · 0 0

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