Where do you think the Stock Market is headed?

Question

To 14,000 or back to 11,000?

Answer 1

10500
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funny...more value in a persons mouth(gold cap) than their pocket!

8.6 trillion is the US national debt borrowed by the general fund the highest ever in history.
The US dollar keep declining it's time to start recognizing the early warning signs of a gathering storm regarding the strength and the stability of the United States. Spending programs such as war and civil servants, health, education, welfare, urban renewal, and the like, should come from taxing at first the wealth and income. But instead, the Government adopted the philosophy of cutting taxes to boost economic growth. It does not work!
The National Debt: Printed by the US Mint.
1910 2.6 (billions)
1920 25.9
1930 16.2
1940 43.0
1950 257.4
1960 290.2
1970 389.2
1980 930.2
1990 3,233.3
2000 5,674.2
2005 7,932.7
2006 8,506.9 (trillion)
Income taxes were/are cut, and has not create more money for the economy to grow, instead the US Mint has to print more and more money, which gives it to the Fed Reserve, which gives it to the White House, to pay for the countries programs (and whatever). And the process is repeated, over and over again. The more money gets printed, the more money goes in circulation, which chase the same items. It is that creation of money that visibly raises goods prices and lowers the purchasing power of money. Inflation is defined here as the creation of new money by monetary authorities, i.e, the US Mint.
More credit was needed by regular Americans to make the necessary purchases.
Consumer debt increased by $434 billion, from $839 billion in 1993 to $1,273 billion in 1996.
1996 - 1.2738 trillion
1997 - $1.3449
1998 - $1.4421
1999 - $1.5563
2000 - $1.7358
2001 - $1.8690
2002 - $1.9527
2003 - $2.0344
2004 - $2.1206
2005 - $2.1780
2006 Qtr 1 - $2.1900 trillion
House Mortgages - Outstanding

Foreigners own over $8.2 trillion of assets in the USA. Equities on the US stock market are at historically high PE ratios, some 3 times above the norm and twice the level of PE ratios on foreign stock markets. Real estate looks as it has peaked. Especially with arise in interest rates in prospect? Here's where the "point of recognition" becomes important.
Foreigners will, firstly, consider how far the dollar will depreciate against their home currency over the next 12 months. Could it be a 5%, 10%, 15%, drop? Then the question is: "Can USA assets rise by 15% to compensate for the currency loss and leave the investor in a level, no win, no loss situation?" The answer seems to be a clear "No".
Foreigners/Americans with large sums of money at risk are quietly taking profits out of the US market, US unbacked dollars is being used to bolster the market indices so the average investor (US and foreign alike) are kept blind to what is about to hit them.
This disaster-to-come has been created artificially by (a) politicians' selfish desires to portray a financially healthy US economy for the advancement of their own political careers, (b) to benefit small, united groups of unscrupulous, rich, and over-speculative investors that make significant (and often wrong) investment decisions but also make significant campaign contributions, (c) refusing to warn the populous regarding the outcome of consistently over printing US unbacked dollars.
Inflation, has become your new tax. See here below, and know if the tax cuts benefitted you.
The top 1% of households own almost 40% of the nation's wealth.
The top 4% of Americans own 60% of the nation's wealth.
The top 10% of Americans own over 70% of nation's wealth.
The top 20% of the nation's households own 85% of the nation's total wealth.
The bottom 40% of households own one-fifth of 1% (or 0.2%) of the nation's wealth.
The bottom 60% of Americans own only 5% of the nation's wealth.
The bottom 80% of Americans own only 15% of the nation's wealth.
The total wealth in America totals $27 trillion dollars.
(Wolff, 2000)

Answer 2

Yes Madmilker, superb evaluation - finally, a person that can think for themselves.

Madmilker, take a look at this website:

www.fms.treas.gov/fr/06frusg/06frusg.pdf

This is the treasury report that was released on Dec. 15, 2006, the 2006 Financial Report of the United States Government. Take a look at page 10. The $8 trillion you mention is only current debt. Adding off-balance sheet, unfunded liabilities, the total U.S. gov't debt is $53 trillion.

There is a saying "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent".

Yes, the stock market is chugging ahead, but ultimately it will have to deal with the excesses that this country is in. Will the fed be able to manage a debt the size of Mt. Everestt, a deflating housing market and a currency that's on the verge of collapse? I say "No", but the majority of stock market participants haven't realized it yet. When the bottom finally falls out, it's going to be ugly. And I think madmilkers estimate of 10,500 is too conservative. I see a bear market that's going to take the Dow down to levels not seen in decades.

Answer 3

As far as your 401k is concerned, if you have allocated it according to your risk tolerance, your age, time horizon, other assets and income available at retirement etc, it doesnt matter if the market crashes or not. A 401k is a long term investment. You dont invest for the long term with a short term view. If you're young more of your 401k should be in stocks and as you get older more should be in bonds and fixed income investments. Never completely in one or the other, The rule of thumb is to subtract your age from between 120 and 100 and put that in stocks. Depending on your risk tolerance and considering people are living longer and working longer.

Answer 4

I think the stock market might be flat. One area that I really like though is wind energy, because of the growing concern over global warming. Here are my favorite wind energy stocks:

http://www.top10traders.com/ViewPost.aspx?postID=166

Here is my portfolio:

http://www.top10traders.com/ViewPortfolio.aspx?userID=5

This is from http://www.top10traders.com - this is a free site that lets you create a portfolio of stocks with $100,000 in "play" money. Each day the site ranks the best performing portfolios, so you can see how your picks perform compared to other investors. You can read posts on investing from the best traders, as well as share your own investing ideas. There is a charting feature, so you can see how your portfolio performs compared to the S&P 500. Also, you can create your own "group" so that you can see how you are doing compared to your friends.

Here are this month's best traders:

http://www.top10traders.com/Top10Standings.aspx

Hope this helps.

Answer 5

Yes.