What do you think about the Asteriod hitting earth in 2029?

Question

NASA says they can deflect it if it gets too close, what do you think?

Popular Mechanics and the NEWS people....guess if you don't read you won't know about it! Please only real answers from people who know whats goin on. Thanks!

Answer 1

99942 Apophis is the asteroid you mean and April 13 2029 is the date, I take it?

Wikipedia reports:

(99942) Apophis (previously known by its provisional designation 2004 MN4) is a near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a relatively large probability that it would strike the Earth in 2029.

(However, within 3 days of the initial concern), additional observations provided improved predictions that eliminated the possibility of an impact on Earth or the Moon in 2029.

However there remained a possibility that during the 2029 close encounter with Earth, Apophis would pass through a "gravitational keyhole", a precise region in space no more than about 400 meters across, that would set up a future impact on April 13, 2036.

This possibility kept the asteroid at Level 1 on the Torino impact hazard scale until August 2006.

Additional observations of the trajectory of Apophis revealed the "keyhole" would likely be missed and on August 5, 2006, Apophis was lowered to a Level 0 Torino impact hazard scale.

As of October 19, 2006 the impact probability for April 13, 2036 is estimated at 1 in 45,000. An additional impact date in 2037 has been identified, however the impact probability for that encounter is 1 in 12.3 million."

MY COMMENT

At those odds, I am not going to lose any sleep over this one.

SOME DATA ABOUT APOPHIS

Aphelion distance: 164.351 Gm (1.099 AU)
Perihelion distance: 111.633 Gm (0.746 AU)
Semi-major axis: 137.992 Gm (0.922 AU)
Orbital period: 323.587 days (0.89 years)

COMMENT
Apophis has a 323 day elliptical orbit around the sun during most of which time it is well inside earth's orbit. Twice every 11 months it crosses earth's orbit, once on its way out to its aphelion and once on its way back again.

But we are usually millions of miles away, eg on the far side of the sun, at the time. It is only once every 7 years or so that the two orbits are anything like in phase with one another Such that the (im)probability of an impact needs to be calculated at all.

The next nearish approach is not till 2013 and the plan is to use radar to observe and calculate its orbit up till 2070 or so when this occurs.

Its size is approx 320 metres in diameter, Any impact an asteroid of this size would make would be extremely detrimental to an area of thousands of square kilometres, but would be unlikely to have long-lasting global effects, such as the initiation of an impact winter as with the asteroid that caused the dinosaurs to die out.

Answer 2

There was one that hit Siberia in 18th or 19th century.
Given a 22 years short time, no technology can be developed to deflect it.
Did you see the picture of Shoemaker Asteroids hitting Jupiter 4 times?
It is not a matter of what people think.

Answer 3

Realize that a 'close' encounter probably means the asteroid will pass within a few hundred thousand kilometers of the earth. As such, we probably do not need to worry about it. Similarly, if a few years from now they learn that it will come too close, a simple probe sent to land on it - with a single 1 megaton nuclear bomb - would be enough to push it off course by tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of kilometers by the time it reaches earth.

Small changes can lead to major changes if given enough time. A minute push a million kilometers out can lead to many thousands of kilometers of change in location once it is nearer us.

Answer 4

Odds are it won't happen. Odds are if it still looks close in a few years, then we can probably deflect it. Odds are if it does happen life will be tough for a few decades and man-kind will move on. I actually hope the odds stay good enough to get people fired up. The world's space programs are far behind were they should be.

Answer 5

is the year 2030 I must have been sleeping or some thing.
If there is a asteroid one did come in back in the 60's they the people of planet earth where suppose to have all paid me to rescue them I took the planet to court to get the money up front its every bodies a_ss every one should pay to be saved. Well I did get some money and turn the giant asteroid away then they cheated me out of the rest of the money. so on this one if exist your second hand on your watch should turn backwards as it aproaches mine is not so its probaly a f_ucking lie

Answer 6

Wishfull thinking I'd say. Just a prediction. Alot can happen until then and no one, I repeat no one can say for sure what will happen then. Sounds like a political ploy to get more money as well. Scare tactics.

Answer 7

You are talking about asteroid 99942 Apophis. The latest tracking data say Earth is safe, it will miss.

Answer 8

it happened once (during the time of dinasours) and it might happen again , who knows!.
what if it happens before 2029?
will NASA deflect it?
are they prepared?
i doubt!

Answer 9

It won't - here's an article from way back in 2004 saying that they miscalculated the first time. How many issues behind in your reading are you ?

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/asteroid_update_B_041227.html

Answer 10

I wouldn't trust NASA to bring down a good sized goose !!