Why do they change the weather forecast so much in Louisville, KY?

Question

Everytime they make a big deal and say we are going to get snow we get rain or sleet or barely a dusting. They are predicting 1-3 inches tonight but I wont be suprised to see nothing but grass in the morning.Where is all the snow?

Answer 1

Contrary to popular belief, meteorology and weather forecasting is a physical science. This is in the realm of physics, chemistry, and mathematics. Many of the equations that govern the atmosphere (and that are used to predict weather) are non-linear second-order partial differential equations. These equations cannot be solved. They can only be approximated through finding some linearization that best fits the situation.

Sometimes these estimates are much worse than other times, resulting in a higher percentage of inaccuracy. Other times, the linearized solutions change rapidly, explaining the common changes in weather forecasting. In this situation, it is not a downfall in the education of the forecaster but in the mathematics of atmospheric science.

However, not all forecast inaccuracies and changes are due to this. Many are due to poorly experienced forecasters, inadequate training, and occasionally...pure ignorance.