Is this a good example of how polls are not accurate?

Question

"Just as telling, in this year’s poll only 41 percent of the military said the U.S. should have gone to war in Iraq IN THE FIRST PLACE down from 65 percent in 2003. That closely reflects the beliefs of the general population today — 45 percent agreed in a recent USA Today/Gallup poll."

http://www.militarycity.com/polls/2006_main.php

HOW CAN THAT NUMBER CHANGE? Doesn't that tell you that one of those, if not both, is wrong?

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Incedently, I've done my own "polling". Out of over 200 marines and navy soldiers/sailors, I met ONE person who did not think we should be in Iraq.

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Did you know that a poll only needs to ask 1000 people a question for it to b considered a 'legitimate' poll?

That is why they are not reliable. As long as there are opposing views, you can get the results you desire.

Answer 1

"Dewey Defeats Truman"

Answer 2

Polls can be manipulated to reflect anybodies views or vested interest. A reputable firm such as Gallup has a vested interest in being objective and accurate. Otherwise they'd be out of business. Military Times has a vested interest in having an accurate reflection of their readership which is basically members of the military. On the other hand if a right wing extremist asks 200 of his friends (assuming that he would have that many friends), he is likely to get responses which he is looking for. Hardly scientific. Personally, I'm thankful that the Republicans don't believe in polls. The last poll that really counted was last November and we saw how that came out. Keep up the skepticism, at least until Nov 2008.

Answer 3

Most polls are taken by companies that are to focus on a certain demographic that meets the research needs on a very low volume of participants. Most polls are not a reflection of the general population.

Example - if you want a poll to show people dislike cats.
You admit only a limited number of people to the poll say 50.
You ask leading questions like
1)do you currently have a pet? You have to count the people that say No as disliking all pet (including cats) say 15
2)do you prefer dogs or cats? You count all the dog votes as a NO for cats - say 30
Right there you can "say" your poll results show.........
People prefer dogs and dislike cats. OR Only 17.5% of Americans like cats.
IS it accurate? No - but happens all the time.

Have you every really listened to poll results released to the media. When it is something the media wants you to hear or agree with but don't have the numbers to make a majority - it is 42% of Americans think or believe but what about the 58% that the media didn't mention?

Answer 4

Exactly. I did my own polling also. I have 2 cousins, an uncle, and 2 brother in laws, all serving in the marines. I asked them along with all their friends if they thought we should be there. They all said yes. the only thing they were saying is we need more than just an additional 20,000 troops. But they all believe the plan will work because now they have specific missions to accomplish. They believe this new plan will allow them to do what they were trained to do. They also believe that this plan will allow our troops to withdraw a lot sooner than the last plan would have allowed. They said they were tired of hearing people complain about a war they aren't fighting. Regardless of the reasons for going over there. We are there, we can't change the past, but we sure as hell can change the future. So let's stop all the complaining and let our soldiers win this thing. Go USA.

Answer 5

something is plausible in US elections. i imagine the Bradley result's a chance in some elements. we may also see the opposite Bradley result that invoice Maher said on Larry King; many will say they don't seem to be going to vote for an African American yet even as they bypass to the polls they are going to shun McCain as Bush-2 and vote for Obama because of the monetary gadget. Polls continuously matter upon who's being polled. AOL and Fox are right leaning, CNN, Yahoo and MSNBC are left leaning and and so on, so it relies upon on what the pollsters are looking for and who they poll. no longer something like election day to settle all this stuff.

Answer 6

Maybe there is an error of the collection of your data. 1 out of 200 sounds pretty suspect to me. I talked to Marines, Army and Air Force stationed in Iraq and Afghanistan and the opinion is mixed from FUBAR to towing the Presidents line. Believe it or not Military people are not Drones...they can think a feel in a variety of different ways just like anybody else. You think reservists are happy about leaving their family in financial hardship over one man's mis-intelligence.

Answer 7

I listen, daily, to one military service person after the other telling America how they are being under-served by the military.

Halliburton was paid to provide potable drinking water and yet they supplied the military with wormy water.

The poor service people have to buy their own drinking water from a reliable source.

The service people you talk with are afraid that you are a government spy so they don't tell you the truth.

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Answer 8

Yes, it is a good example. I believe that you can make polls say anything you want them to say.

Answer 9

polls are opinion polls , those who suffer do realise if needed or not !!