What are the chances that a huge meteor will crash into earth ?

Question

And what type of chaos would it cause ?

Answer 1

Assuming that by "huge meteor" you mean any sort of rock that crosses the ecliptic, including cometary debris and asteroids...

There is no probabilistic issue at all. The probability is 100 percent. Big ones hit the earth more frequently than is popularly understood--about one every 100,000 years. The earth is pockmarked with large craters, though most of them are so weathered that they are hard to notice, and have only recently been acknowledged for their true nature.

And on that scale, we are due for one, within the next thousand years or so. The amount of damage done to terrestrial ecosystems and atmospheric systems is not predictable until we know the size of the thing, where it will hit, and how close to straight down it comes.

A city bus size rock like the one that formed Meteor Crater in Arizona would destroy everything in a 500 mile radius and bring about several years of extreme cold conditions over the entire planet. A lot of people and animals would survive, and some components of "civilization" would remain intact.

An asteroid the size of Connecticut, which is possible, would destroy all life on earth except perhaps bacteria and a few primitive worms or maybe even insects. No point in even worrying about it.

So: eat, drink, and be merry, for tomorrow we are less than insignificant.

Answer 2

The chances are just about 100%--if you wait long enough. But that could be centuries--for a really big one, maybe millions of years. Our biggest immediate risk is a "Near Earth Asteroid" that is due to pass very close in 2036 and 2037. But the chances of it hitting are around 1 in a thousand--if we don't intervene. Which we can, IF we develop the necessary space-going capability. Not technology so much-we have that, or at least the foundation--but havn't made the committment to implement it yet.

A strike like that could cause a really big tsunami if it hit the ocean--worse than the Indonesia tsunami--and create an explosion more powerful than the biggest nuclear weapon ever built--possibly killing millions if it hit a major city.

A really big asteroid--like the one that hit the earth 65 million years ago--would wipe out most life on earth. Not just because of the explosion and/or tusnamis. But it would throw up so much dust and ash into the atmosphere tha tmost of the suns light would be blocked for several years--killing most plant life and then the animals who depend on the plants for food. would humanity survive such a "mass extinction?" That's debatable. My personal opinion is yes--there would be a few survivors left to start over. But our civilizationwould be gone.

Answer 3

Over time, I'd say 100%.

In your lifetime, I'd say 1 in 1,000,000, depending on what you mean by 'huge'.

A meteor of the size that wiped out the dinosaurs would probably end up killing 95% or more of the earth's population.

Such an event hasn't happened for 65 million years, so I think you are pretty safe.

But not completely safe.

Answer 4

The chances are 100%. Its just a matter of... when. What type of chaos it would create will depend on how big it is. It could be from... no effects... or localized property damage, or .. the end of life as we know it. Or... Planet killer.

Answer 5

50/50. we have already had a few close calls just in the few years that we have been able to track such things. Scientists now speculate that a rather smallish, (compared to some that are known) impact in the gulf coast area was responsible for the extinction of the larger dinosaurs.

Answer 6

it would cause complete havoc, but i dont think the chances are very good

Answer 7

dont know