(adapted from Boston University Press Release dated 27 October 1997)
Dr. Farouk EL-Baz, director of the Center for Remote Sensing at Boston University, today announced the results of the Center's final analysis of the crowd size present during the "Million Man March" held Monday, October 16, in Washington, DC - 837,000, w ith a margin of error of plus or minus 20 percent.
Aerial shot of the Mall http://www.bu.edu/remotesensing/Research/MMM/NationalMall.jpg
This was the Center's second effort to analyze National Park Service photos taken during the march. The Park Service's orginal estimate of 400,000 marchers, which was based on an analysis of images taken from a videotape, brought criticism from the event 's organizers, the Nation of Islam, which felt the crowd reached a number between 1.5 million to 2 million.
The new estimate represents an improvement over last week's effort because the Center's team was able to work from original negatives. A further reduction in the size of the margin of error could be achieved only through an mprovement in the data-gatheri ng methodology employed by the National Park Service.
Last week, Dr. Michael Guillen, science editor of ABC's "Good Morning America" program, asked Dr. El-Baz if the Center could conduct an analysis of some 35mm photographs obtained by the television network from the Park Service. Dr. El-Baz gathered a team of 10 research associates and graduate students of the Center in order to develop a methodology for applying remote sensing techniques to the problem of crowd size estimation. After working overnight, the team on Thursday morning, October 19, produced a n estimate of 870,000 people in attendance at aboiut 3:30 p.m., with a margin of error of about 25 percent, which meant the actual size of the crowd at that time could have been as low as 650,000 or as high as 1.1 million.
Dr. El-Baz aoffered to meet with representatives of the National Park Service in order to explain how his team arrived at their estimate and to discuss how the Park SErvice might obtain appropriate photographs and apply advanced methodologies in the futur e. At the request of the Park Service, representatives of the Nation of Islam also attended the meeting, which was held Tuesday, October 24, in one of the Center's laboratories in Boston.
Leading the delegation from the National Park Service was Robert G. Stanton, field director for the National Capitol Area. Representing the National of Islam was Chief of Staff Leonard F. Muhammad. Dr. El-Baz and his colleagues explained to the two grou ps how they analyzed the photos and suggested specific measures that should be adopted by the Park Service to improve future crowd estimates.
After the six-hour long meeting, the parties agreed to issue the following statement: "As a result of its meeting with Dr. Farouk El-Baz at Boston University this morning, the National Park Service has concluded that the 400,000 number can no longer be co nsidered final. It is proceeding, in cooperation with Boston Univeristy, to re-analyze available photographic evidence to generate an improved count. Boston University's high-tech computerized procedures will take several days to arrive at a better esti mate."
For the second analysis at Boston University, the National Park Service provided the Center with the original negatives of the 35mm photos it had used to produce the Park Service's first estimate. By digitizing the negatives, instead of color prints, the Center's team was able to use higher quality images than were previously available, although the resolution in 35 mmm film offers, at best, marginal quality.
Other limitations still faced the Center's team because of the Park Service's data-gathering methodology. The Park Service shot the videotape and still-photos from a helicopter that flew alongisde the area of the march. A helicopter is an unstable platf orm for aerial photography due to vibration, and variations in both altitude and the tilt of the aircraft. This results in a different slant range in each photo and, because the helicopter flew alongside the march, rather than directly overhead, a great obliquity of the line-of-sight.
The final number, based on a count using negatives provided by the NPS, was 837,214 people, with a 20 percent margin of error.
2007-01-09 13:49:36
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answer #2
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answered by Winter Storm 2
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