Can anyone speculate the value of dollar vs other currencies for a period of next 20 years?

Question

By the phase "Other currencies", i meant current Majors like Euro, Yen, Pound and future majors like BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) -country currencies

Answer 1

No one can speculate that far into the future. And if they do, they are assuming a lot of things are/are not going to happen. You have to keep in perspecive that fact that economics is not a defined scientific measuring system, like math or chemistry. A lot of psycology and human nature is in the mix.

Also, having a trade deficit is not a bad thing. Most of the things we borrow to buy increase in value like houses. If the value of the house increase more then the interst rate we pay to borrow the money, then we make money.

Answer 2

call any bank and ask for their forex trader, asking how much for the Dollar, he will tell you, there is no future... all you have is the present plus the interest, so all they do is add the current value the interst and take the devaluation, and gives you a real price that is actually traded in the foreign exchange market. is well known as the forwards, or NDFs. but is never done in such a long time but you can just do the math...
now being realistic you must take other factors, many people puts China and Brasil as the world main economies in 20 years with the US in a protagonic role, so that may tell you that it will stil be a strong currency but not as strong... and of course it all depends against what market are you comparing it to...
the cable will have to blend with the euro... forget about russia, the Yuang the Yen the Real and the Euro together with the dollar will mark the compass... ans later on I think we all ended up sharing a common currency...

Answer 3

Okay, here's a wild leap:

The United States of America will continue digging its way deeper into being the biggest debtor nation of all time. Other nations will cease lending us money, driving our currency into more and more dire straits. Other nations will expect repayment of our massive trade deficit, which will require us to shell out more of our (less-valuable) dollars, which will probably require us to borrow from ourselves (or print up more money). All of this is going on right as the baby boomers expect the government to give them their entitlement, their welfare with wrinkles. And the generation Xers will be getting nervous about exactly the same thing. Hmm, better print up more money. Hmm, that makes each dollar worth a little les. Hmm...

Europe will continue its peaceful, somewhat debtful existence, and the Euro will prosper slightly.

England will probably damage its Pound by helping the USA financially. The Euro may also suffer similar "my buddy's a crack head" type problems helping us out.

The Japanese will probably suffer through their recession, saving and working hard as they always do, and emerge on the other side with an understanding that there are booms and busts. They should be in another boom in a little under 20 years. Their currency will be strong once again.

The emerging countries, which are currently scrambling to arrange their infrastructure, will have made significant improvements, and their wage structures will have gone up to the point where they are no longer as dirt-cheap as they are today, except possibly in the boonies (places like Vietnam, which will probably be in 20 years about where China is today). They will have unions forming, they will have new ways of doing business clashing with old economic practices, but their currencies will rally around their feelings of accomplishment.

And Iraq, having finally found peace after George W. Bush leaves office, will see its Dinar soar, so that a giant stack of them may actually cost some significant money. Seriously, if you ever wanna feel like a pimp or a drug dealer, just go on ebay and buy a million Iraqi Dinars... it'll cost you about $2,000, if that. Roll around in it, and tell me if you feel like a pure silk turban...

If I'm right, commodities and foreign currency ETFs are the way to go for at least ten years. In 20 years, I bet there'll be untold billions in American funny money available for the next real estate boom.

Answer 4

Not accurately.