Statistically, is the earth more likely to be wiped out by a giant asteroid then by the sun expanding?

Question

I've heard that the sun will eventually expand in 50 million years time destroying the earth and making a mess of my uncle Albert's prize daffodils, but what are the statistical chances of us earthlets being smushed into space goo by a giant meteor (with a tax bill attached to it) before we even get that far?

I'm thinking of investing my money into sun block shares so I'm going to factor your answers into it.

I've heard that the sun will eventually expand in 50 million years time destroying the earth and making a mess of my uncle Albert's prize daffodils, but what are the statistical chances of us earthlets being smushed into space goo by a giant meteor / asteroid (with a tax bill attached to it) before we even get that far?

I'm thinking of investing my money into sun block shares so I'm going to factor (get it?) your answers into it.

I appreciate there are other things likely to wipe out us humans. Solar flares, depleted ozone layer, American foreign policy, not wiping the toilet seat and an overworked, underpaid, sleep deprived, alcoholic Russian nuclear plant engineer whose wife has just left him.

But on this occasion I'm concerned with what one of God's stray baseballs can do.

Answer frivolously.

Answer 1

The question is which would happen first. The sun will expand, but not in merely millions of years, but billions. By then we will certainly not be here to worry about it.
We honestly do not have enough information to predict when an asteroid will inflict heavy damage on the Earth. "Wiped out" seems to me to mean completely devoid of life. An asteroid is not going to do that because life is very resilient. There are even some creatures who thrive living in ice. Others that live in the infernal heat near underwater volcanic eruptions.

We do need to be concerned about the loss of millions of humans due to the impact of asteroid(s) upon the Earth.

It is arrogant of our scientists to assume that because we can't see any asteroids coming from strange angles towards us that none can possibly exist.

Earth is very well protected from asteroids by other planets sweeping up asteroids with their gravity. Earth is protected from solar winds by the magnetic field generated by the molten lead spinning at Earth's core. That allows Earth to have an atmosphere that helps burn up small asteroids/meteors.

We need to balance our resources between different survival strategies. In other words, we need to protect from nuclear war, biological weapons, starvation, diseases, and from asteroids. There are other things too, but you get the idea.

As unlikely as it sounds at least one threatening asteroid is heading this way. We need to concentrate on surviving the impact or on preventing the impact or both. Developing the means to survive an impact will help us against other threats. Developing the means to prevent an impact will also help against other threats. I believe it is best to concentrate on having good shelters and food creating ability to survive an impact, since the increased food can always be used and the shelters are good in case other bad things happen.

In any case humans need to figure out a way to get to another solar system before this one expires.

Answer 2

Statistics are a funny thing... You can make them do almost anything you want. The answer to your question will change with time.. today we are far more likely to be wiped out by an asteroid than the sun exploding... but in 50 million years (conditional that we have not already been wiped out by an asteroid) then the chances are higher that we will suffer exploding sun syndrome.

Another way to interprete your question, would be 'which is likely to happen 1st? Death by asteroid? Or Exploding Sun? I would have to double check the exact numbers, but it is known the earth has been hit by killer asteroids multiple times in its life, maybe something like every 5 million years or so... So it seems likely that we will be hit again before the sun explodes.

Of course, if rephrasing the question to be about the extinction of the human species, or destruction altogether of the planet; it is incredibly unlikely that we will be hit by an asteroid that will destroy the planet (break it into pieces lets say). It could make a big mess like the one that is believed to have wiped out the dinosaurs.. however humans are a bit smarter than dinos, so if that type of even happened, I think there is a good chance that at least some remenants of humanity will survive.

So now we balance a good chance of being smacked with a big asteroid before the sun goes Red Giant, but a good chance that humans won't be completely wiped out, versus the certainy that the sun will expand, with the certainty that it will wipe out all life on earth... Of course if by then humans have colonized other solar systems then the human race will still nonetheless survive.... what was your question again?

Answer 3

The sun would given enough time definitely destroy the Earth through ageing to a red giant, estimated to happen sometime in the next 5 billion years (P=1). As our technology is now on an exponential improvement curve, asteroids although a threat now, will cease to be a threat in the near future (<<5 billion years) because of this, so there is a very remote chance of Earth being KO'd by an asteroid (P<<1). However, we are rapidly approaching something called the Sinuglarity (due to our advancing technology), which may well 'do for us all' in a matter of a few decades. So rather than the Sun or some errant space debris destroying the Earth, we might just do the job ourselves (P=0.5), assuming global warming doesn't stop us before hand.(P=0.5)

Answer 4

Youre' right. Our Sun is expanding--but no not 50 million years . Roughly in about 5 million years ---(does it sound awfully close-well by then youd' have had progenies 10n to the power of 10x20x3..so it isnt' awfully close really- ) our Sun would have expanded a hundred odd times and wd' cover nearly 25% of The Horizon and belching fire from 1/10 of the present distance. A chicken barbecue free of cost in about 15 seconds flat , if you like it that way please so long as you are live enough to retrieve it. And by the way no amount of prayers or love for Uncle Albert's Daffodils can change the scenario. But wait a minute- a small succour-- by then Man(who would have become immensely intelligent , innovative and cunning would have long departed Earth and colonised a far off satellite of an another Sun or may be dug deep into the bowels of ou own Mother Earth and stay figuring out way to escape for escape he must or else be doomed in a gigantic cataclysm never again to inhabit this beautiful creation of That Almighty who only knows how HE shall help us or punish us or pardon us!!Bye bye My Friend All TheBest

Answer 5

The sun will go red giant is about 5 billion years although lots of really nasty end of the world sun stuff will happen before then, but not for at least a couple of billions years.

We get hit by a city buster about once every 100 years and a biggy every 10,000 years or so, so the impact is the most likely event. Although saying that there is a chance it will never happen whilst the sun going red giant - that's 100%.

Oh and the sun block is a good idea because the sun is getting hotter (I wont bore you with lots of stellar physics but trust me it is), also global warming will mean more people going out in the sun and hence needing sub block, that's in addition to the depletion of the ozone layer.

Answer 6

What do you mean by wipe out?

It will not take a 10 km wide asteroid to destroy civilisation. Civilisation is a fragile thing dependent on economies. Many scientists believe that all it needs is a 500m wide asteroid to hit in the right place to so stress the world economies that civilisation goes down the tubes. That, to us in the first world, is tantamount to being wiped out.

And a 500m asteroid is not just 5% the size of a 10km one. It is 8000 times smaller volumetrically, and probably 8000 times more common in space. Therefore, though an extinction event asteroid like the dinosaur killer is reckoned to impact just every 100,000,000 years, you can probably divide that by a factor of almost 10,000 for a hit likely to bring down civilisation.

That is one every 10,000 years.

There are those scientists that believe that swarms of asteroids or cometary particles come around periodically, so that the current observed flux of likely impactors does not give a true indication of the historic incidence of catastrophic impacts.

So, insofar as the collapse of civilisation means the end of life as most of us know it, the asteroids and comets win out over the sun.

Look up Clune and Napier. Also Taurid meteors.

Answer 7

Ouch!
I do not know too much but this is a little I do believe is correct.
Our sun is busy burning hydrogen (1 in the periodic table), It can carry on up the periodic table till it gets to ~Fe (26 in table) every element up the table yields less energy, so I guess it will burn cooler, & probably expand. I guess once it becomes a red giant we are histoy.
Sunscreens are a questionable field. The only ones that are 100% safe are oxides- that just reflect. The absorbtion of UV by most sunscreens results in the absorbed energy being re-transmitted usually as IR eneryg to the underlaying cells may also cause some dammage. Its like the ozone layer was it was very difficult to work out the full facts with opposing sides.

Answer 8

Well, statistically, of course the earth is more likely to be wiped out by a giant asteroid. We have a date (give or take a million years) for the sun's expansion, while the whole asteroid business is pot luck - there may be one sweeping towards us as I write, ready to hit us in about 2066 (reckon I'll be gone by then).
Incidentally, nice to see somebody making a 50 million year business plan - none of this mincing around with 3 or 5 year plans for you, I see. Well done

Answer 9

The time for the sun to expand is a few billion years into the future. The probability of that happening is 1. So assuming we keep technologically advancing and will get to the point where we could divert an asteroid, I say the expanding sun would win out.

Answer 10

there is not enough information on either possibility to approach the problem statistically. However it is commonly believed it will be many millions of years before the sun runs out of hydrogen as becomes a red giant.
The earth has been struck many times by asteroids. Whether it would cause the destruction of the earth would I suppose depend on such things as the size of the asteroid. What angle it was to the earth when it struck, etc.