what will the stock market do this year?

Question

continue to increase? fall off in the summer? crash? If so, why?

Answer 1

The stock market will do the same this year as it has for over a hundred years, it will return an average of 10-12% including dividends.

If you had invested money the day BEFORE each of the worst "crashes" over the last 60 years, you would still have earned an average return of around 10%.

Buy. Diversify. Hold. Pay NO attention to daily/monthly/yearly fluctuations.

Do this for at least 25 years.

Retire rich.

Answer 2

The market this year will probably grow slowly, 2-3 %. That should not prevent anyone from investing if they are willing to do the research. There were always be good stocks to buy.

Answer 3

You may not be able to predict exactly when a crash will occur, ie, date, but you can predict when one is approaching. For example, if you know someone that is drinking constantly, doing all kinds of drugs, having rampant unprotected sex with anyone willing, you may not know the exact date that person will end up dead from the effects of that lifestyle, but you do know that if it continues to persist, that day will eventually come.

Thin makes a great point, but fails to give the true story. Okay, if you investing BEFORE every major crash in the last 60 years, you'd still have earned an average of 10%.

First, the majority of people only have about 30 years in their investing life cycle, so to use data like "60" years is ridiculus. Sure, if you live to be 100 years old, that's not a problem. But, since the average person lives to about 70, that means they'd need to investing since they were 5 years old (take away 5 years marking age 65 as retirement).

Second, in the past 60 years. That would mark 1946 as the beginning of this time period. From the end of WWII in 1945 till present, the U.S. has gone through the greatest economic expansion virtually uninterrupted. The crash of 1987 was during the greatest bull market in history.

And his argument that it will continue to do what it's done for 100 years is an adolescent or infantile argument. That's going on the assumption that as it will, so will it always be. Now, stop and think about that for 1 second - that's a major assumption. When in history has the U.S. been so in debt? The $8 trillion in debt that everyone squawks about is CURRENT debt. Total Federal debt including long term debt and unfunded liabilities is $53 trillion - and that's JUST federal debt.

Ask people that lived in the 1920's and 1930's (there are still some alive today) that if they ever believed the prosperity of the 1920's would have ever ended in a global depression? We have never really known hard times, and people like Thin base is purely on that - that because we Americans now currently have never really known hard times, that we never will. That' is the biggest mistake anyone can make.

In the past 60 years, sure, you'd have made money, but what about in 1929? If you have invested in the market BEFORE the '29 crash, it would have taken you 25 years - let that one sink in - 25 YEARS before you got back to breakeven. NOT, making money, BREAKEVEN. Since most people have 30 years in their investing lifecycle, that means you'd have used up 80% of that lifecycle just to get back to breakeven. And that's just based on nominal figures, based on actual figures, it would have taken over 60 years to get to breakeven.

Thin is looking at the market with blinders on. The market is experiencing many divergences. Although the Dow is making new nominal highs, the broader market indices are not, thus producing negative divergences. Market momentum is again moving to the downside.

Add to that that the dollar is crumbing and on the verge of a collapse (many countries are losing faith in the greenback and are moving out of dollar reserves), the housing market is coming apart. In 1929 the U.S. was a creditor nation, today we're the world's biggest debtor nation and have to borrow $2.4 billion PER DAY for the fed gov't to function.

The yield curve has been inverted for a large portion of 2006 and and inverted yield curve has been the most accurate predictor of an impending recession. Volatility is low thus showing extreme complacency in the market.

What will the market do? That's really anyone's guess. But, I personally think the current rally is about to come to an end and things are going to get really ugly. I personally believe the U.S. (and the world in general) is on the verge of a MAJOR financial crisis. The market may not necessarily crash, but look for pain in the stock market. Look for an acceleration in the demise of the housing market and look for continued weakness in the dollar leading to an eventual dollar crisis and collapse.

I fear Thin's philosophy of the market "doing what it's always done" is going to put him in the poor house. Check back with Thin in about 10 years and if he hasn't lost huge bucks in the stock market, he'll be at minimum in a world of hurt due to the losses he has incurred.

There is a perfect financial storm coming that's going to make the Great Depression look like a picnic in the park on a beautiful spring afternoon. There are MANY, MANY excesses that have to be worked out.

To give you a heads up, the massive mergers and LBO's we've been experiencing lately are indicative of a market TOP. The last time we have this kind of M&A activity was just prior to the market top of 2000.

It's going to get ugly boys and girls and we are going to be in a world of pain in the near future.

Answer 4

that would be a nice thing to know, most likely just a steady increase as normal, but a crash seems to be a random thing,if i knew when they were coming i would be rich