The end of civilisation: meteorite hurtling towards earth?

Question

Is the fatal meteorite predicted to end human civilisation still on route to detroy the earth? If so, when is it predicted to impact? And is it really worth us worrying about greenhouse gases if we are going to meet our demise so imminently?

Avalon, your comment made me burst out laughing thanks for the chuckle!! It wasnt meant to alarm people, but I wanted to ask a real question, not all these wishy washy questions!! Happy New Year my love!!

Bud a man, thanks for the info, actually the chances of the meteorite NOT hitting us are greater!! Thats good to hear. Happy New Year to you too!!

Answer 1

It is not a meteorite, it is an asteroid. When discovered in June 2004 it was given the provisional designation 2004 MN4. It was only later once its orbit had been calculated that it was given the name and Minor Planet Centre Catalogue number 99942 Apophis.

2004 MN4 and 99942 Apophis are one and the same object therefore.

Bud has cited the the Dec. 24 2004 NASA Press Release at the height of the panic about a 2029 collision. However within 3 days (and it was over Christmas) the probability of an impact was revised downwards in the light of further observations and calculations, and the current position is this:

WIKIPEDIA SUMMARY

(99942) Apophis (previously known by its provisional designation 2004 MN4) is a near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a relatively large probability that it would strike the Earth in 2029.

However, additional observations provided improved predictions that eliminated the possibility of an impact on Earth or the Moon in 2029. However there remained a possibility that during the 2029 close encounter with Earth, Apophis would pass through a "gravitational keyhole", a precise region in space no more than about 400 meters across, that would set up a future impact on April 13, 2036. This possibility kept the asteroid at Level 1 on the Torino impact hazard scale until August 2006.

Additional observations of the trajectory of Apophis revealed the "keyhole" would likely be missed and on August 5, 2006, Apophis was lowered to a Level 0 Torino impact hazard scale. As of October 19, 2006 the impact probability for April 13, 2036 is estimated at 1 in 45,000. An additional impact date in 2037 has been identified, however the impact probability for that encounter is 1 in 12.3 million.

Despite the fact that there is no longer any significant probability of an Earth impact, The Planetary Society is offering a $50,000 prize for the best plan to put a tracking device on or near the asteroid,

COMMENT

Those odds suggest we need not lose any sleep over this. The idea of Apophis hurtling towards Earth, hellbent on destroying life as we know it doesn't really fit the facts either, It quietly orbits the Sun in a 323-day orbit and crosses our orbit twice a year, Only once every 6 or 7 years are we anywhere near the cross-over point, we are usually millions of miles away e,g, on the far side of the Sun,

Answer 2

1

Answer 3

It appears that we dodged a bullet this time with asteroid 2002 NT7. NASA's Near Earth Object Program released this statement:

"With the processing of a few more observations of asteroid 2002 NT7 through July 28, we can now rule out any Earth impact possibilities for February 1, 2019. While we cannot yet completely rule out an impact possibility on February 1, 2060, it seems very likely that this possibility will be soon ruled out as well as additional positional observations are processed.

"Because the SENTRY system tracks a multitude of test particles in an effort to map the uncertainties of the asteroid's future positions, some of these test particles can take slightly different dynamical paths. Hence there are currently two entries for 2060 in our IMPACT RISK table. The entry with the higher risk (larger Palermo Technical Scale) would be the value that would then take precedence."

While this particular asteroid appears to not be a threat to Earth at this time, the Near Earth Object Program and other agencies continue to monitor space for other threats. After all, it is a big universe, and there are a lot of asteroids and comets out there.

Answer 4

On route to destroy the earth?

I don't know where you got your information, but no one who knew what they were talking about would say that.

The odds are slim. Last I checked, it was on course for near misses in 2029 and 2036. The concern was that in it's passing in 2029 it might run into a gravitational 'keyhole' which could change it's trajectory slightly.

Now, that's MIGHT run into one. And the change in it's trajectory could just as easily take it away from Earth's orbit.

Even in unlikely case where it WOULD impact, it's not nearly big enough to be called a 'Planet Killer', and would certinatly not "end human civilization". The immediate damages of such an impact would be local, limited to an area of perhaps a few counties (in America) and it's secondary effects would be regional such as ash clouds and gases.

So, no, our demise isn't imminent by any means and.. honestly, I find the notion that people out there are looking for reasons to believe the world is going to end just so they can keep being lazy abso-f***ing-loutly appauling.

If we all die, it will be because we deserved it, not because Nature's a *****.

Answer 5

The Dec. 24 2004 update from NASA states:

"2004 MN4 is now being tracked very carefully by many astronomers around the world, and we continue to update our risk analysis for this object. Today's impact monitoring results indicate that the impact probability for April 13, 2029 has risen to about 1.6%, which for an object of this size corresponds to a rating of 4 on the ten-point Torino Scale. Nevertheless, the odds against impact are still high, about 60 to 1, meaning that there is a better than 98% chance that new data in the coming days, weeks, and months will rule out any possibility of impact in 2029."

I assume NASA has updates. www.nasa.gov

Answer 6

No definitely not. Earth will not be hit by a meteorite the Most probable it's that sun becomes a red giant about 5 billions of years after becoming a red giant it will be large enough to engulf the Orbits of Earth and Mars, our planet would be inhabited and it'd wipe us out of course.That's the most acceptable theory about the end of the human beings and everything else that exist on Earth.whether a meteorite gets towards earth we would still have the technology to destroy it with rockets that if we uncover the meteorite in time .I think there's no reason to freak out of a thing that maybe will happen in 5 billions of years we all wont be alive until there.So be Cool guys.

Answer 7

Hmm, ... no. There is a close flyby of asteroid 99942 Apophis in 2029 and 2036 but the latest data suggest that it will not impact the earth. On the other hand there's a possibility that comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) will impact Mars in 2014 but Earth will be way out of the way for that one. See below:

Answer 8

The earth will get hit by an asteroid, meteror or comet, sometime in the future.

The general public will probably not know that it si going to happend untill the very lasat few minutes or maybe hours as we will then be able to see it with our naked eyes.

The governments of the world will not allow the infomation to be let out as it would cause mass panic.

Can you imagine the effect if they told you that on( let's just pick a date)

June 6th, 2017 something was going to hit the earth and wipe out all life as we know it. There would be panic and riots, looting and mcuh more.

If anyone happens to be around when it happens, I think they'd best be at ground zero. I'd wanna be taken out right away, life on earth after that would be short and not very pleasant.

Answer 9

All the more reason to start thinking seriously about having a few people move out of home and living on another planet. Then if/when it happens there will be a few of us left to start over. I suggest 20 females and only one male go. Sperm can be frozen but someone will have to get the spiders out the bath. Maybe the male could be a competition winner. Happy 2007

Answer 10

Thats reminded me of something funny, one of the pictures in this calender, of a shooting star. Underneath, it says:

When you wish upon a falling star, your dreams can come true. Unless it's really a meteorite hurtling to the Earth which will destroy all life. Then you're pretty much hosed no matter what you wish for. Unless it's death by meteor.