what are the chances that the earth will be destroyed on April 13,2029 from a asteroid?

Question

I saw on a show that on april 13,2029, Asteroid 2004 MN4 will pass close enough to be bewtween earth and where the satallies are. what are the odds that it could hit us? what could be done to prevent it?

Answer 1

Asteroid 2004 MN4 was its provisional designation when first discovered in Summer 2004. Only later, once its orbit had been studied and calculated in more detail did it receive the Minor Planet Centre catalogue number 99942 and the name Apophis. (The name is the Greek version of the Egyptian God Apep, the Destroyer,)

So 2004 MN4 and 99942 Apophis are one and the same object.

It is only 320 metres in diameter, which whilst it would cause considerable damage over an area of some thousands of square kilometres, is not large enough for "the earth to be destroyed". It would not threaten the future of life on the planet earth and it would not initiate an impact winter. Beware sensationalist journalism.

In recent days this 320 meters diameter has been described by various questioners on Yahoo Answers as ... "colossal" "as big as Texas" "almost as big as America" and "a third the size of the Moon." This despite the fact that there are NO asteroids of anything like that size; the largest, Ceres is under 1,000 kilometres in diameter and the mass of the entire asteroid belt (350,000 asteroids!) is no more than 4% of the mass of the Moon, with Ceres contributing a third of it.

Rumours tend to exaggerate the size of the object, the damage it could cause, and the probability of an impact, and rarely mention the name of the object so anyone can look it up and make their own mind up about it (you are an honourable exception to this trend!)

Asteroid 99942 Apophis caused a flurry of concern at Christmas 2004 when the possibility of a collision or near miss in 2029 was predicted.

But then there were a flurry of observations, over the next three days and these were then connected to "precovery" (pre-discovery) observations so the orbit could be recalculated over a longer period, with more accuracy.

As a result the level of possible impact hazard this asteroid represented was re-assessed and the current position is this:

No chance of an impact in 2029. it is predicted that the asteroid will pass just below the altitude of geosynchronous satellites, which are at 35,786 km (22,300 mi). Apophis' brightness will peak at magnitude 3.3, with a maximum angular speed of 42° per hour. Such a close approach by an asteroid of this size is expected to occur only every 1,300 years or so. The maximum apparent angular diameter will be ~2 arcseconds, which means it will be a starlike point of light in all but the very largest telescopes.

As of October 19, 2006 the impact probability for April 13, 2036 is estimated at 1 in 45,000. An additional impact date in 2037 has been identified, however the impact probability for that encounter is 1 in 12.3 million.

Not worth losing a lot of sleep over.

The following data are relevant to understanding the threat it poses.

Semi-major axis 0.922 AU
Perihelion 0.746 AU
Aphelion 1.099 AU
Orbital period 323.587 days (0.89 years)

i.e. it crosses earth's orbit twice in each 11- month orbit it makes. Once on the way out to aphelion and once on the way back from it. The point is that it is only on a minority of these occasions that earth is anywhere near the point of crossover. Most years, as the two orbits are out of phase with one another, we are part-way round our orbit or safely on the far side of the sun. It is only once every few years that we are anywhere in the vicinity for a possible impact to need to be assessed as to how (im)probable it is.

It next makes a close approach in 2013 and there are plans afoot to study and plot out its post-2029 passes by earth up to at least 2070 on this occasion. There are also plans to place s "spy-in-the-cab" device aboard Apophis so we can monitor what it gets up to.

Answer 2

The chances of getting the earth being destroyed by an asteroid on April 13, 2029 are the same as the chances of earth being destroyed by an asteroid on April 14, 2029, or May 1, 2029, or May 1, 2025, or 2026, 2027, 2028, 2040, 2041, 2039, 2037, 2038, 2031, 2045, 2042, 2060, 2080, 3000, 12341234213409203498098, etc.

Whatever those chances are, they seem to be less than 1 in 1,642,500,000,000. That's 1 trillion, 642 billion, 500 million, and that's about the number of days Earth has survived so far. (I did 4.5 billion times 365)

But realistically, I would say the chances are at most 1 in 1,642,500,000,000,000,000, or a million times less likely than what I calculated above. Why? Because the Solar system was much more chaotic and much more crowded with asteroids billions of years ago than it is now. It's a much safer place now.

Also, you are talking about the chances of the Earth getting destroyed, but why do you care? There is a much higher chance of US getting destroyed by an asteroid than the Earth. The Earth has been hit by enourmous asteroids many times, that would completely wipe out human civilization.

Still, I think the chances of that happening on any particular day are about 1 in 109,500,000,000, which is 1 in 109 billion, 500 million, which is 365 days times 300 million years. I believe that 300 million years is the accepted frequency of big impacts. They happen about that often. 300 million years is about 4,285,714,290 human lifetimes and the current approximate life expectancy of 70 years in America, which is a pretty high estimate, but let's be optimistic.

So yeah, it's pretty useless to talk about the chances of getting hit on any particular day, but in your lifetime you have a 1 in 4 billion, 285 million, 714 thousand, 285.7 chance of getting killed by an asteroid.

You are more likely to get struck by lighting while getting eaten by a shark in a Nevada casino, surviving and then winning the lottery 30 days in a row than to die by getting hit by an asteroid (ok, I lied, you are actually only about 100 times more likely to win the lottery than you are to get hit by an asteroid. If you've won the lottery, take cover!)

The chances of winning the lottery are 1 in 41,416,353 (if you play only ONCE in your whole life). The chances of getting hit by an asteroid, divided by the chances of winning the lottery, leave you with 1 in 103, which is about the chances of you seeing a peacock driving a schoolbus (ok I made that up).

Basically, there is absolutely no point in worrying about this because A) the chances are SLIM, very, very low and B) if it happens, you can't do anything about it anyway.

So don't worry about it.

As far as MN4, their calculations are probably way off, just like they were on the one a few years ago. Do you remember how they thought we might get hit in like 6 months, a few years ago. Turned out they were off. Even scientists make mistakes.

There is probably nothing you could do to prevent it hitting us if it was going to. If you nuked it, you would be showered with thousands of smaller asteroids, which might be an improvement over 1 bigger asteroid (more surface area for atmospheric disintigration?), but we would probably miss the asteroid anyway.

Answer 3

I believe you are referring to 99942 Apophis which will pass very close to Earth in 2029. The odds are ridiculously low. Rest easy, my friend...

Here's a link to some more soothing information about it:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis

We constantly have to deal with asteroids and comets that cross Earth's orbit. We've passed through the tail of a comet a few years ago (and every November we still do), we've had an asteroid come between us and the moon, and in 1994, a Comet Shoemaker-Levy9 broke apart and slammed numerous big pieces into Jupiter while our cameras and telescopes recorded the whole thing. The biggest piece was only about 2 km in diameter (1 mi), yet it left a plume coming from the surface of Jupiter that was bigger than the entire Earth. Here's a link to the amazing photos:
http://www2.jpl.nasa.gov/sl9/image295.html

There are several methods being discussed as to how to deflect asteroids away from the Earth once they're detected. Here are what the scientists are discussing (as of now...):

1) using the "shotgun" approach by blasting it with a whole bunch of small particles to give it just enough of a nudge to ease it out of our path.

2) attaching a solar sail onto the object and letting the solar wind gently tug it out of our path.

3) landing a small thruster or series of thrusters on it to push it onto a different course.

4) a "nuclear" solution is out of the question because tests and simulations have shown that instead of a huge "Earth-Killer" rock, we'd have several smaller "Earth-Killer" rocks, and it wouldn't solve anything. A Nuke would NOT vaporize an asteroid. If they choose to detonate the Nuke further away from the object, it might have a better chance of pushing it than detonating it at impact, but the problem is that it would take several thousand Nukes to achieve this effect.

Here's a link to several "deflection methods discussed:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_deflection_strategies

I hope this answers your question. It was a good one!

Mack

Answer 4

For everybody else, lets do this.

Stand 1000 yards away wearing a safari hat. I will shoot with my riffle and warranty the bullet will pass by your left ear under the eave of your hat with out scratching you.

Oh! did I forgot to mention it is going to be in the middle of a jungle with monkeys, birds and all kind of stuff flying around?

Don't worry I am a scientist and my calculations are perfect!

Rest at ease!

Go to this site, look for the asteroid you want, once the graphic loads click on the double right arrow to play or key in the date you want.

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/orbits/

I don't enjoy prophetizing doom but if the governments were open about the programs they have to prevent or mitigate these events the world will be spending less time pursuing material stuff and more time pursuing spiritual development.

Don't you think?

Answer 5

I will give Earth a 50/50 chance. On the day after, I bet half the planet files for bankruptcy. I think that if Earth is at peace(i mean ,no wars are going on at the time), we may have a 75/25 chance in our favor. But if Micheal Jackson succeeds in Las Vegas, then all hope is lost for us.

Answer 6

they don't have any program to do anything in place right now and no immediate plans to do so..I have news for you ..we are near missed all the time.. all the scientist in the world and astrologers only view about one percent of the sky and pardon me but its a big @ss sky..Lots of times we are near missed and never saw it coming.. We live surrounded by an astroid belt..Have you ever watched someone playing pool and saw one ball bouncing in a direction that you didnt expect..well its pretty much like that in the astroid belt around us.. one could bounce our way anytime and you would never see it coming..Its a big chance before then and even bigger change that we will have a major eruption of a super volcano at yellowstone that will anilate
the planet and we are long over due for a major earthquake of over 7.5 down the middle of the US since 1991 so well I wouldnt worry to much.. live today and remember the old indian saying"its a good day to die"

Answer 7

a black hole is a real tear in space time over allmost all dimetions in our universe space time unversal rotation such as a black hole twisted backword would be space time but allot of enery in one place now hyperspace is the universal tim of the universe twisted to the right or rotation of the galaxcy a white hole emits energy from another universe and a black hole take energy out it is a balance that keeps each universe alive there are only two universe's the amount of enery to make a black hole in our universe you would have to use a huge sphere of space time in real life science and then twist time and space so teleportation is not possbille bu this is molecule lasers and teleportation confilct of what possible www.beyond-science.com or www.beyond-science.net

Answer 8

we can't anything, everything is possible we have still 20 years to prevent it , & the scientist r trying there best so if u r scared nat to be scred u have still 20 years live them , god is great ! he will definately do something

Answer 9

The odds are probably about as good as us getting hit by an asteriod tomorrow.

Answer 10

I think the chances are "very" high and nobody wants to do anything to try and avoid it, even if they could !