What is causing the above normal temperatures this winter in the Mid Atlantic region?

Question

I am a snow lover. When winter arrives I am checking the forecast on a DAILY basis, hoping for a chance of snow. This winter....forget it!!! Temperatures have been averaging 10 degrees above normal. It is almost January and it is 50 degrees! I hate this. It's winter, for christ sake. How about some snow??? Someone with a background in meteorology PLEASE explain to me what is causing the above normal temps in this region and giving us boring rain...and NO SNOW!!!

And how come every time the temps drop below freezing, the skies miraculously clear up. But as soon as precip moves in, surprise surprise the temps rise and we get nothing but rain!!! Very frustrating!!!

I am 32 and have lived in MD all my life. I am used to having cold spells with snow, then warmer temps and a melt down to prepare us for the next snow. And historically February is our snowiest month. But when you see Denver getting 2 big snows in a week and nothing but rain here it gets frustrating!! CRAP!

Answer 1

It's an El Nino winter...the El Nino this winter has a very similar signal to the El Nino of 1997-1998. In normal, non-El Nino conditions, the trade winds blow towards the west across the tropical Pacific. This pushes the surface waters away from the coast of Peru and allows cold water from the deep to rise to the surface in a process called "upwelling." During El Nino, the trade winds relax in the central and western Pacific. The reduced winds decrease upwelling to cool the surface and cut off the supply of nutrient rich cold water to surface. El Nino not only hurts the fishing industry of Peru but affects weather patterns globally.

This winter has started out warm in the eastern US, however, you probably have also noticed the trough in the west bringing very cold weather and lots of precipitation.

Keep in mind that weather patterns can change. If the warmer water is displaced further west, colder air could sink into the eastern United States.

Climatologically speaking, don't lose hope just yet. The southern branch of the jet stream tends to bring lots of moisture to the eastern United States Jan-March leading to Nor'easters that typically are responsible for your big snowfalls.

Hope this helps!

Answer 2

El Nino. This is the el nino year, here in AZ it rains like cats and dogs.
El Nino is a change in the ocean currents off the coast of S. America