If the asteroid won't hit us on April 13,2029, when will it?

Answer 1

Asteroid 99942 Apophis [320 metres (1050 feet) in diameter] caused a flurry of concern at Christmas 2004 when the possibility of a collision or near miss in 2029 was predicted.

But then there were a flurry of observations, over the next three days and these were then connected to "precovery" (pre-discovery) observations so the orbit could be recalculated over a longer period, with more accuracy.

As a result the level of possible impact hazard this asteroid represented was re-assessed and the current position is this:

No chance of an impact in 2029.

As of October 19, 2006 the impact probability for April 13, 2036 is estimated at 1 in 45,000. An additional impact date in 2037 has been identified, however the impact probability for that encounter is 1 in 12.3 million.

Not worth losing a lot of sleep over either of those, I suggest.

The following data are relevant to understanding the threat it poses.

Semi-major axis 0.922 AU
Perihelion 0.746 AU
Aphelion 1.099 AU
Orbital period 323.587 days (0.89 years)

i.e. it crosses earth's orbit twice in each 11- month orbit it makes. Once on the way out to aphelion and once on the way back from it. The point is that it is only on a minority of these occasions that earth is anywhere near the point of crossover. Most years, we are part-way round our orbit or safely on the far side of the sun. It is only once every few years that we are anywhere in the vicinity for a possible impact to need to be assessed as to how (im)probable it is.

As regards the coincidence of April 13th dates in 2029 and 2036, that arises because 8 Apophis years are almost exactly 7 Earth years,

Nevertheless there ie some feeling that however many close encounters or close escapes we have there must be a long-term risk of collision with either the earth or the moon, and there are suggestions afoot as to how to monitor this more closely.

(1) The Planetary Society is offering a $50,000 prize for the best plan to put a tracking device on or near the asteroid

(2) In July 2005, former Apollo astronaut Rusty Schweickart, as chairman of the B612 Foundation, formally asked NASA to investigate the possibility that the asteroid's post-2029 orbit could be in orbital resonance with the Earth, which would increase the probability of future impacts.

Schweickart asked for an investigation of the necessity of placing a transponder on the asteroid for more accurate tracking of how its orbit is affected by the Yarkovsky effect.

(3) There is an increasing interest in asteroid deflection strategies (see second link).

Answer 2

If it hits, it will cause an Apophisphe. That's because its name is Apophis. It will next approach the Earth in 2036. I will be 83 years old the first time and 90 the second.

Peak oil and global warming are more to be concerned about right now than Apophis.

Answer 3

besides area being so huge and besides the ambience, a pair of different issues come into play. First, there are in basic terms some regularly occurring minor planets that come on the factor of Earth. some are great sufficient to reason worldwide injury, yet maximum are no longer. If between the very great ones (10km or greater, enable's say) have been to hit Earth the comprehensive Earth could be affected. The smaller ones could would desire to hit on the factor of or upon a inhabitants center to reason accepted injury. That, in and of itself, is unlikely with the aid of fact 2/3 of the planet is ocean, and in basic terms approximately ten according to cent or so of something is densely populated. If a 2 km extensive minor planet have been to hit the Pacific Ocean in basic terms some human beings could probable understand approximately it. yet another element: the planet Jupiter continually perturbs the orbit of teenybopper planets, with its "deep gravitational nicely". So, a minor planet that strategies Earth on its way in in the direction of the factor of its orbit closest to the solar, would mindset Jupiter on its way out. If this happens Jupiter can replace the orbit of the minor planet in basic terms somewhat, and it might now no longer mindset the place of Earth (it could artwork any opposite direction, besides). yet another factor is time: guy has been around for in basic terms some million years (in some form or yet another), and scientific guy has been around for in basic terms some thousand. If a huge minor planet hits Earth each 5 million years (purely an occasion) we would possibly no longer additionally be due yet (statistically speaking, of path). finally, Earth is blessed by an extremely great moon. The gravity nicely of the moon can replace the orbit of a minor planet, purely like Jupiter and, for that remember any of the planets approached by a minor planet (lower back, it could artwork the two way).

Answer 4

Are you going to be around in the year 2029?

Why worry about such a future date when tomorrow (12/28/06) is NOT promised to anyone?

Guido

Answer 5

I am pretty sure its not going to hit us. The scientists at NASA said there is a overwhelming chance that it will miss us. But they are launching an attempt to destroy it before it comes into contact with earth!

Answer 6

an astroid is due to hit in 2029 what size because even a small one can cause devistating results

Answer 7

they say it will happen seven years after that date it sucks this will happen on my birthday

Answer 8

It won't.