You are playing a game called “Deal or No Deal”, twenty-six cases are displayed at random with various amounts in each (from one cent to one million dollars). You select case number one as your case (meaning your case is no longer an option for elimination) You then randomly eliminate and all but two cases (Case two and your case). One case contains one million dollars and one contains one cent. Howie Mandel ask: “Would you like to switch to case number two?” Is it to your advantage to switch to case number two in this situation?
Even PhD’s in statistics have managed to solve this incorrectly because of a common misinterpretation with the Monty Hall Problem. The question is based solely upon this singular sequence of events and not all the possible sequence that may come about in the Deal or No Deal game and the question clearly states a singular situation in which you “randomly” eliminate all but one case and your own. Taking the bankers offer is not an option here.
2006-12-26 09:23:02 · 7 answers · asked by Anonymous in Science & Mathematics ➔ Mathematics
In this case it is still 50-50.
In the Monty hall problem the first openings of the box (where you do not get the prize) was not random, i.e. it was a guaranteed duff prize you were getting to see. This gave you more information about the boxes left and it was smarter to shift.
In the Deal or no deal the choice was random and no further information is obtained, the situation you described would happen only infrequently in deal or no deal.
In Monty Hall the end good prize/bad prize choice was guaranteed each time.
2006-12-26 11:35:34 · answer #1 · answered by crazy_tentacle 3 · 1⤊ 0⤋
There are 2 cases left. One of the 2 has the million dollars. So,the odds are 50%.
2006-12-26 10:06:56 · answer #2 · answered by Renaud 3 · 1⤊ 0⤋
I wood not trade unless i was psychic cause its 50 fifty but u make a great point I understand what u saying
2006-12-29 12:17:38 · answer #3 · answered by ? 4 · 0⤊ 0⤋
right. the only thing you are taking the probability of is what is uncertain, and what is uncertain is whether the first briefcase holds the prize or the second one. since there is nothing going for either one, it's 50-50.
2006-12-26 09:41:31 · answer #4 · answered by car of boat 4 · 2⤊ 0⤋
There is NO difference in the odds. ir's 50-50
2006-12-26 09:27:49 · answer #5 · answered by mu_do_in 3 · 2⤊ 0⤋
psssh no deal i choose my £10,000 hi do you think of there unquestionably is a banker on deal or no deal? or is noel purely talking on the telephone to himself? or something stupid like that
2016-12-11 16:23:11 · answer #6 · answered by ? 4 · 0⤊ 0⤋
its 50-50 chance.
(personally stick w/ the case you got though, its your gut feeling...)
2006-12-26 10:23:15 · answer #7 · answered by Zaza 5 · 1⤊ 1⤋