how significant will the coming of asteroid Apophis be?

Question

how significant will the coming of Apophis be and just how much jepordy
will it present to the pacific ocean if it enters earths keyhole
in2029

Answer 1

A CLEAR CASE OF PLAGIARISM

I invite you all to compare my answer of a month ago (below) to the question "How big is this asteroid?" (Apophis) asked by Kevin (currently 5th on page 2 of my Best Answers pages) with efw's posting above.

Now whilst I draw on wikipedia articles and they are in the public domain, I do not think it fair or reasonable that my editing of them should be copied virtually verbatim and that efw should try to pass off as his comments what are in fact my comments (eg the section entitled MY COMMENTS AGAIN) as I prove below.

What is a dead giveaway that efw has lifted my piece is that he hasn't edited out the word "other" in "from your other qiestion". Kevin had asked a previous questuion to which I had replied telling him about Apophis and this was a supplementary question pursuing the same idea further, But Questa has not (as far as I know) asked any other question about Apophis!!

Is it fair or reasonable that efw should get ten points for doing this? Whilst no money is involved, I still think intellectual property rights and moral rights exist and should be respected.

I suggest the only honourable thing efw can do is delete his or her answer and issue an apology, Before the question sloses for voting or the asker's decision.

I am entitled to recycle my old answers to a similar question but s/he is not! Certainly not without attributing my comments to me and seeking my permission first.

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My answer to Kevin of a month ago:
==========================

Best Answer - Chosen by Asker

About 320 metres. And the "keyhole" it would have to pass through to be diverted onto a collision course is only 400 metres wide so it would have to hit it plumb centre.

Based upon the observed brightness, 99942 Apophis's length was originally estimated at 415 m (1350 ft); a more refined estimate based on spectroscopic observations at NASA's Infrared Telescope Facility in Hawaii by Binzel, Rivkin, Bus, and Tokunaga (2005) is 320 metres (1050 feet). Its mass is estimated to be 4.6×10^10 kilograms.

Apophis belongs to a group called the "Aten asteroids", asteroids with an orbital semi-major axis less than one astronomical unit. This particular one has an orbital period about the Sun of 323 days, and its path brings it across Earth's orbit twice on each passage around the Sun.

Apophis was originally known by its provisional designation 2004 MN4. When its orbit was sufficiently well calculated it received the permanent number 99942 (on June 24, 2005). Receiving a permanent number made it eligible for naming, and it promptly received the name "Apophis" as of July 19, 2005. Apophis is the Greek name of the Ancient Egyptian god Apep, "the Destroyer", who dwells in the eternal darkness of the Duat (underworld) and tries to destroy the Sun during its nightly passage.

From your other question it is clear that you are concerned about the possibility of an impact and how devastating that might be.

WIKIPEDIA ASSESSES THESE AS FOLLOWS

Possible impact effects

It must be stressed that the odds of impact are now known to be very low. Hence, the possible effects of an impact are largely irrelevant.

However, the initial reports resulted in widespread discussion on many Internet forums, including armchair speculation about exactly where Apophis (then known only as 2004 MN4) would hit and what would happen when it did.

NASA initially estimated the energy that Apophis would have released if it impacted Earth as the equivalent of 1480 megatons of TNT. A more refined later NASA estimate was 880 megatons. The impacts which created the Barringer Crater or caused the Tunguska event are estimated to be in the 10-20 megaton range. The 1883 eruption of Krakatoa was the equivalent of roughly 200 megatons.

The exact effects of any impact would have varied based on the asteroid's composition, and the location and angle of impact. Any impact would have been extremely detrimental to an area of thousands of square kilometres, but would have been unlikely to have long-lasting global effects, such as the initiation of an impact winter.

===
MY COMMENTS AGAIN:

The bigger threat is in 2880 and is from asteroid 29075 1950 DA. It is 4 times the diameter and thus ~64 times the volume of Apophis. Potentially more damaging consequences, therefore. If there were to be an impact.

Radar observations at the Goldstone and Arecibo Observatory from March 3 to 7, 2001 during the asteroid's 7.8 million km approach to the Earth give a mean diameter of 1.1 – 1.4 km. Optical lightcurves by Petr Pravec show that the asteroid rotates every 2.1216 hours.

Due to its short rotation period, 1950 DA is thought to be fairly dense (more than 3.0 g/cm³).

If 1950 DA continues on its present orbit, it will approach near to the Earth on March 16, 2880. Over the intervening time, the rotation of the asteroid will cause its orbit to change (by the Yarkovsky effect). A preliminary analysis shows two possible pole directions (Giorgini, et al., 2002 "Asteroid 1950 DA's 2880 Encounter with Earth"). One trajectory misses the Earth by tens of millions of kilometers, while the other has an impact probability of 1⁄300. The radar observations are currently being reanalyzed, in combination with the optical lightcurves.

The energy released by a collision with an object the size of 1950 DA would cause major effects on the climate and biosphere which would be devastating to human civilization.

The discovery of the potential impact has heightened interest in asteroid deflection strategies (see my third link).

Source(s):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_apoph...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1950_da...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/asteroid_de...

Answer 2

Regarding the "keyhole" it would have to pass through to be diverted onto a collision course is only 400 metres wide so it would have to hit it plumb centre.

Based upon the observed brightness, 99942 Apophis's length was originally estimated at 415 m (1350 ft); a more refined estimate based on spectroscopic observations at NASA's Infrared Telescope Facility in Hawaii by Binzel, Rivkin, Bus, and Tokunaga (2005) is 320 metres (1050 feet). Its mass is estimated to be 4.6×10^10 kilograms.

Apophis belongs to a group called the "Aten asteroids", asteroids with an orbital semi-major axis less than one astronomical unit. This particular one has an orbital period about the Sun of 323 days, and its path brings it across Earth's orbit twice on each passage around the Sun.

Apophis was originally known by its provisional designation 2004 MN4. When its orbit was sufficiently well calculated it received the permanent number 99942 (on June 24, 2005).

From your other question it is clear that you are concerned about the possibility of an impact and how devastating that might be.

WIKIPEDIA ASSESSES THESE AS FOLLOWS

Possible impact effects

It must be stressed that the odds of impact are now known to be very low. Hence, the possible effects of an impact are largely irrelevant.

However, the initial reports resulted in widespread discussion on many Internet forums, including armchair speculation about exactly where Apophis (then known only as 2004 MN4) would hit and what would happen when it did.

NASA initially estimated the energy that Apophis would have released if it impacted Earth as the equivalent of 1480 megatons of TNT. A more refined later NASA estimate was 880 megatons. The impacts which created the Barringer Crater or caused the Tunguska event are estimated to be in the 10-20 megaton range. The 1883 eruption of Krakatoa was the equivalent of roughly 200 megatons.

The exact effects of any impact would have varied based on the asteroid's composition, and the location and angle of impact. Any impact would have been extremely detrimental to an area of thousands of square kilometres, but would have been unlikely to have long-lasting global effects, such as the initiation of an impact winter.

===
MY COMMENTS AGAIN:

The bigger threat is in 2880 and is from asteroid 1950 DA. It is 4 times the diameter and thus ~64 times the volume of Apophis. Potentially more damaging consequences, therefore. If there were to be an impact.

Radar observations at the Goldstone and Arecibo Observatory from March 3 to 7, 2001 during the asteroid's 7.8 million km approach to the Earth give a mean diameter of 1.1 – 1.4 km. Optical lightcurves by Petr Pravec show that the asteroid rotates every 2.1216 hours.

Due to its short rotation period, 1950 DA is thought to be fairly dense (more than 3.0 g/cm³).

If 1950 DA continues on its present orbit, it will approach near to the Earth on March 16, 2880. Over the intervening time, the rotation of the asteroid will cause its orbit to change (by the Yarkovsky effect). A preliminary analysis shows two possible pole directions (Giorgini, et al., 2002 "Asteroid 1950 DA's 2880 Encounter with Earth"). One trajectory misses the Earth by tens of millions of kilometers, while the other has an impact probability of 1⁄300. The radar observations are currently being reanalyzed, in combination with the optical lightcurves.

The energy released by a collision with an object the size of 1950 DA would cause major effects on the climate and biosphere which would be devastating to human civilization.

The discovery of the potential impact has heightened interest in asteroid deflection strategies

Worst case scenario assuming the asteroid is solid iron and hits us dead on:

Crater: 6.32 km in diameter
Blast Energy: 1940 megatons

At a range of 50 km, almost all buildings are knocked down and your clothes are set on fire. Magnitude 6.8 earthquake, which will be minimum compared to the shockwave in the air.

At 100 km, the fireball is 5 times brighter than the sun but does not set your clothes on fire. The blast will be as lound as heavy traffic, and will shatter glass windows. 6.8 on the richter scale, which scares everyone but does not damage buildings that are up to building code.

So it destroys an area larger than Rhode Island, but smaller than Conneticuit. The Earth is not significantly perturbed by this blast, although the country that gets hit will be.

Impacts like this happen once every 38000 years on average.

These numbers are based on a pessimistic interpretation of NASA's most recent figures from their website. Actual impact may be less destructive.

Answer 3

pricey asem: who ever rusty schweicharts bio individual develop into at NASA, rather did not recognize a lot. Rusty's crew in Apollo 9 not in any respect left earth orbit. they examined the lunar lander and its function at the same time as circling the earth. Rusty's crew not in any respect went to the moon, even for an orbit. and no, i'm no longer rather fearful about an asteroid hitting the earth in 2036. i am going to take a seat on my porch with a sturdy bottle of wine, and watch all of it end . If we were to watch for the UN to get off its collective *** to do some thing, we are able to be hurting.

Answer 4

It's not going to hit in 2029 but depending on how the earths gravity effects it it will come back in 2036 and have 1/8000 in hitting

Answer 5

what if its not iron, what if its gold and it lands in my backyard. Can I claim it when the dust settles?

Sorry bit its really hard for me to worry about a chance of being hit 900 years from now.

efw, who said it would be devestating and then later said not significant. Which is it?

Im thinking I dont want to be around for it.