How is it predicted when a star will go supernova?

Question

and how reliable are those predictions? How often do stars observable from our planet go supernova?

Answer 1

It's really hard to predict Supernovas. No stars going nova happen anywhere near our relative area in the galaxy. There are spectrums of light, and chemicals that are visible from this far away that can give us clues that a Star is dying, or gathering energy for an outward explosion.

Most of the time we cannot tell, unless we are pointing our telescopes in that exact direction at the exact time of occurrance. Because after it happens, and that shift in IR, gamma, UV or x-ray or whatever happens, we cant tell it ever happened among all the other stars. We would have to be looking directly at it when the signal hits us.

A huge growth in supernova findings is thanks to Amateur astronomers, who buy their own telescope, even the motorized and digital types, and scan the skies themselves. They far outnumber the number of observatories on the earth and so they can blanket areas of space better, allowing for more finds.

Novas probably happen pretty often, but they can take millions of years or more for that light change to reach us. Astronomers usually discover supernovas by comparing spaceshots, or maps of the stars with newer maps. Perhaps days apart, weeks, or months, Etc..

Alot of Novas have been found because one star was just a little brighter, when compared to the same star a short time before.

Hope that helps!
I would think that whatever warnings we know of that mean a star will go nova, are pretty accurate. The basis of these warnings are probably the same from star to star. I believe whatever reactions and changes that are happening within a raging star start to happen, the effect is irreversable and the result certain.

Answer 2

Stellar evolution happens over such a long time scale that such predictions don't have much use. For example, the star Eta Carinae is expected to go supernova very soon - in the next 10,000 to 20,000 years.

There hasn't been an observable supernova on the Milky Way Galaxy since 1604, but we see dozens every year in other galaxies.

Answer 3

No supernova has ever been predicted. There are projects that observe a set list of galaxies every day to see if a supernova appears in one of them, but it is like comet hunting or meteor observing; there is no way to to know in advance where one will appear. No supernova has occurred in our galaxy for some centuries; all the ones observed recently have been in other galaxies.

Answer 4

If Sirius became mass sufficient (say 8 circumstances the mass of the solar) to bypass SN it would be a variety 2. A supernova launch approximately 10^forty two Joules as radiation interior the preliminary burst. (that's approximately 10000th of the full ability!) At 9 mild years this might bring about a burst of roughly 10^25 Joules in keeping with sq. metre over some seconds. this may be extremely undesirable! the 1st component you will possibly see is the full sky bypass extremely vibrant blue, this may be accompanied by the lack of ability of you retina and death. One edge of the earth's entire ecosystem may be stripped off in a rather short quantity of time. After that issues might bypass down hill! curiously Sirius is a binary and it extremely is secondary is a white dwarf. it extremely is probably that once Sirius enters the great branch there will be some mass flow between the two whihc could be sufficient for the seconadry to submit to a variety 1a supernova.

Answer 5

You can't really predict a supernova. You have to realize, that by the time we see this explosion, it has already happened thousands of years ago
go to this web site and get a complete and very detailed explaination of what a supernova is and when they happen http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supernova

Answer 6

Scientists GUESS...Can you belive that??