Which baseball team has the best rotation?

Question

prediction of numbers on the pitchers in that rotation.

Answer 1

Not the Red Sox-
People seem to like the Red Sox but there are four problems, not counting Matsuzaka's adjustment to the major leagues.

1) Papelbon hasn't pitched in the rotation so it will remain to be seen how well he will do. There is a big difference between pitching as a starter and a reliever. As a reliever, you can more easily hide your weaknesses and since you usually only face a particular hitter once in a game, you don't need to adjust as much. Also you can use more energy and throw harder with more velocity than as a starter. Two great former relievers Eric Gagne and John Wettland were terrible as starters.

2) Beckett has not made the transition to the American League. If you noticed, last year his ERA was well above the league average. That meant he was worse than the average pitcher in the AL. Before the All Star Break he had an ERA of 4.75. After the All Star Break he had an ERA of 5.32 and had a record of 5-7. It is easy to remember Beckett as a World Series hero and how he pitched for the Marlins. However, he is no longer that Josh Beckett. Most of the wins he had last year were in the beginning of the year when he was facing hitters he never faced before. After they saw him once, they hit better against him.

3) Tim Wakefield is not that solid a pitcher. He is a good number 5 pitcher but not someone who is dominant. He will eat up innings which is all that is needed but not someone who is that impressive. Before the All-Star Break his ERA was 4.05 which is not good After the Break his record was 0-3 with a 7.40 ERA which is really not good. I don't see how some of the posters can even suggest the Red Sox rotation is passable with Beckett and Wakefield in it.

4) Schilling is a warrior but there was also a sharp decline in his numbers from before and after the All Star Break. In what may be his last year in the majors before retirement, he can't be counted on anymore to pitch well for a complete season. His ERA rose from 3.6 to 4.58 in the second half. In the first half his K/BB was a dominant 115/15 but in the second half it dropped off sharply to 68/13.

Not the Yankees-
Wang is a very good pitcher and Mussina will be a solid #2. However they also have three big problems:

1) The Yankees are good but the problem today is that reportedly Randy Johnson asked for a trade to a team closer to his home in Arizona. His K/BB was decreasing last year and that is a bad indicator of success. His strikeout total was his lowest in a full season since 1989. His ERA was 5.00 last year.

2) Andy Petitte had a 4.2 ERA last year and will be facing lineups with the DH and at this point in his career he is a good #4 or 5 pitcher.

3) They lack a solid #5 starter. Right now it is not clear if Pavano will ever pitch again. Their top prospect Hughes may make the rotation but that will be a big jump for him. Igawa was rated as only a #4 or 5 starter and not considered a top pitcher.

The Dodger rotation looks the best in baseball:
1) The Dodgers have Jason Schmidt at the top of the rotation. He had a solid 3.6 ERA last year and won 11 games for a very bad Giants team. However last year he did set the Giants record for most strikeouts in a game at 16. He should win between 18-20 games but could be more as he will be pitching in a pitchers park and will have better hitting behind him.

2) Derek Lowe also had a solid 3.6 ERA last year and tied for the league lead in wins. He projects to 16-18 wins, but this could increase if the hitting improves as it is expected to.

3) All Star Game starter Brad Penny is the #3 starter and he also tied for the league lead in wins. He would have won more but was injured half way through last year or he would have easily won 20 games. He should be healthy to start the season. If healthy, he projects to 18 wins, 3.6 ERA (based on an average of the last three years).

4) The #4 starter is Chad Billingsley. He is the top rated prospect that all of the other teams have been asking for. While he started his rookie year last year shaky, he made adjustments and it showed results. After the All Star Game last year, Billingsley was 7-2 with a 3.16 ERA. He projects to 16 wins, 3.5 ERA.

5) Randy Wolf is the #5 starter and he is recovering from surgery. Usually it takes about 1.5 years after surgery to throw with good velocity again and that is about where he is now. He projects to win about 10-15 games with an ERA of around 3.8 based on a very conservative projection of his pre injury numbers. If his velocity fully returns he could do even better.

All three of these rotations have question marks but the best on paper right now are the Dodgers.

Answer 2

The San Diego Padres usually have one best pitching rotations in baseball for the past couple of seasons. Most of the pitcher's not so hot Win/Loss record comes from lack of offense. For example, Jake Peavy tossed an 18 strikeout game against the Braves last season, and still got the loss due to lack of offensive production.

My predictions:

#1: Jake Peavy ERA=3.80 K= 200+ W/L= 16-10
#2: Chris Young ERA=3.50 K=175 W/L=12-10
#3: Greg Maddux ERA=3.75 K=125 W/L=13-12
#4: Clay Hensley ERA=4.00 K=100 W/L=12-14
#5: (Unknown at this point) I'm guessing it will be their top AAA starter Tim Stauffer. They might bring back Chan Ho Park. Who knows at this point?


They may not be the biggest names in baseball, but this kind of rotation has won this team the NL west title for 2 years in a row. God knows it's not their high powered offense.

Also, San Diego's bullpen is usually top 5 for the past couple of years. Cla Meredith was lights out with a 33 2/3 innings scoreless streak, and ended up with a 1.07 ERA. Trevor Hoffman is the man.


BTW why does everyone kiss both Boston and New York's ***? I don't think their rotations are horrible, but they aren't as spectacular as people make them out to be.

To answer my own question, I think they get their asses kissed because that's all ESPN usually talks about. Baseball Tonight should be called the "Red Sox and Yankees Show: Everything else is not big market".

Answer 3

This is a tough comparision the angels have two guys that I haven't bought into yet Santana and Saunders same with the Cubs Harden and Dempster. But in the end my vote goes to the Cubs. Why. because there top 3 Harden, Zambrano and Dempster are better than Santan Saunders and Lackey. The back 2 is really a toss up Garland and Weaver both can be lights out then the next inning they blow up same for Marquis and Lilly so I would rather have the cubs rotation. Honorable mentions for good rotation: Brewers and sort of Red Sox

Answer 4

Boston has the best rotation right now but the Dodgers, the White Sox, the Yanks, and the Marlins are all right behind them.

1. Schilling 16-10 3.40
2. Beckett 15-12 4.80
3. Matsuzaka 18-8 3.63
4. Papelbon 15-10 3.75
5. Wakefield 14-12 4.22
or something like that.

Answer 5

It's obviously the Red Sox. They are quite unproven, but only when it comes to Papelbon, and slightly Matsuzaka. If I'm Francona, then I'd keep John Lester in the rotation and Papelbon as closer. If he got injured working as few innings as he did, just think if he had to go six innings every five days.
Matsuzaka- 17-9
Beckett 15-9
Schilling 12-5 (he's going to be injured)
Wakefield 14-11
Papelbon 7-6 (injured)
Lester 5-4

Answer 6

The Dodgers...Jason Schmidt, Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, Randy Wolf..that's a decent group four deep.

I'd say the Red Sox but you don't know how good (or bad) Matzusaka will be and Papelbon being a starter may not pan out as well as some Sox fans hope. Plus Schilling is a year older.

Answer 7

Yankees:
Ching Ming Wang (20-5 w/3.20 ERA)
Randy Johnson (17-8 w/3.80 ERA)
Andy Pettite (16-7 w/3.50 ERA)
Mike Mussina (16-6 w/3.50 ERA)
Carl Pavano (10-5 w/3.90 ERA)

Answer 8

I agree with the Dodgers, they're nasty pitchers and are a heavily underappreciated rotation. If they all click, I'd hate to face them in a short series.

Answer 9

Definitely Boston:

Schilling
Beckett
Papelbon (moving over from the bullpen)
Wakefield
Matsuzaka (unproven but a 4th or 5th starter with great upside)

Yanks are a close 2nd but as their pitchers are a bit older with the potential to break down during the season (Wang, Mussina, Pettitte, Broken Down Big Unit, Pavano?)

Answer 10

The Red Sox!!! Schilling (his last season), Matsuzaka (First pro season, MVP of WBC), Beckett, Papelbon, and then good ol' Timmy Wakefield. Note that #2,3, and 4 are 26!!!