Why does the US expect a massive influx of refugee when Castro dies?

Answer 1

Because it has happened before - TWICE. The Castro regime has always used the threat of a "mass exodus" to threaten the US government. They've also shot american citizens out of the air, terrorized us in a nuclear scare by proxy during the Kennedy administration, and make a joke out of us in front of the UN despite their decades long abuses on human rights - but we were talking about this exodus thing. The first such exodus happened in the 1980s (Early) known as the "Mariel Boat Lift." Castro basically said, anyone who wants to go - go now! But he also opened his jails and insane asylums and put those guys on boats too for the States. Most came to Miami, and the movie "Scarface" shows you what it looked like in those days with thousands of refugees living fenced in under an express way. The second occurred in the 1990's under Clinton's administration, which is why we set up a camp in Guantanamo to house many (about 30,000) before allowing most into the US. After this second exodus the US established some bilateral agreements with Cuba which included a system of "controlled" migration, a US special interest sector in Havana (which has pissed Castro off since its inception), and the sadly very unpopular "wet foot/dry foot" policy which removed the old rule that whereever a refugee was found by the US in american waters they were considered "present" for immigration/asylum purposes and now requires the refugee to actually set foot on dry land in order to be present. It is a good question you ask. There is a dynamic history behind it. Many compelling stories come from the Cuban people's desire to come here. I encourage you to do a little searching around for this. But in closing, to answer your question, the US expects it because it's happened twice already.

Answer 2

It was originally thought that there would be a massive shift of Cubans returning to the island when Fidel Castro died. There are two problems that kill that idea

1) The #2 man in power there is his brother Raul. Raul is considered to be, by many, the more disdainful and violent of the Castro brothers. If he were to take over, then projections concerning Cuba would actually plummet vice skyrocket regarding political, social, and economic issues. It may be harsh under Fidel, but Raul's regime could be make Fidel's run feel like a quasi-paradise.

2) There are too many Cubans here that are already well-established and will not want to disrupt their personal foundation by going back to Cuba. With an already established population cemented and a personal culture instilled, there would be no need to go back home.

If Raul does take over, there may be another influx of "refugees" similar to the 1980 Mariel Boatlift that brought 1000s of Cubans to American shores.

Answer 3

It will be the greatest opportunity for a struggle for power most likely between hardlined-Castro supporters and those who are more moderate, perhaps striving for economic and political reforms; it's hard to imagine a non-socialialist Cuba in the immediate future.

An influx of refugees can result from many things. The new government wants to get rid of its weakest links in a renewed revolution: dissidents, social outcasts (can include homosexuals and petty criminals), etc. However, refugees can also come from a collapse of the government. This seems unlikely since Castro has been in a long period of declining health and the political structures are in place to plan for and transition through leaders.

Answer 4

I expect a massive outflow of Cuban ex-patriots and money from Miami.

Answer 5

Not everyone wants to move to the USA... even Cubans!

Answer 6

No clue. You would think more Cubans would stay.

Answer 7

there will be civil war and people will want to escape