will a nuclear war between two countries really result in a nuclear winter that'll cover the entire globe?

Question

i was watching this show called 'on the beach' which speculates the consequences of a nuclear war between the US and China. In it, basically the entire human race is doomed because of the impending nuclear radiation covering the entire earth. What's the probability of that scenario happening if let's say nuclear bombs were dropped in two locations on the globe? will the radiation really spread to the rest of the world?

Answer 1

Saw the movie, read the book. Yes, it was science fiction, but was meant as warning of possible *future* capabilities using weapons that *could* indeed be built, but thankfully never were.

You see, when the book was written bomb makers made the bright move to encase hydrogen bombs of the time with cheap natural uranium. Under neutron irradiation from the H bomb, this would transmute the uranium into explosive plutonium, and increase the explosive yield considerably. Just what was needed for the policy of MAD (mutual assured destruction); blast whole cities, instead of just silos.

However, explosive yield was not the only thing increased, nuclear fallout was increased by an even larger factor, since U-Pu was not the only transmutation that would occur. Lots of nasty isotopes would be produced. Some said that was a good thing; more dead Russians. Some even said let's take it a step further and, instead of uranium, let's use even cheaper cobalt. The resultant irradiation would produce a deadly isotope in huge quantities. Radiation poisoning, in fact, would be the primary kill mechanism and spread over the whole countryside. Don't even bother blowing up the bombs near the ground to get blast damage. Set them off way up it atmosphere for maximum dispersal. That'll show 'em.

The premise of "On the Beach" was that such advice was heeded, and that (over time) the entire arsenals of the three superpowers was converted over to this just-kill-everything strategy of massive cobalt bombardment. As to whether the whole world would be poisoned, that would require an insane number of bombs, and both side would know what would happen. Thankfully it never really happened, and the worse we have today are the uranium cladded city busters. The fallout is bad, but regional. Most deaths would be from the blast and heat.

Answer 2

Just keep your eye on the rats. Once they start jumping off the Earth, then you know its over.

There is zero probability of the "human race being doomed" from two nukes. They just aren't that powerful. From my understanding it would take many large nukes placed in strategic places for nuclear winter to come about. But the reality is that nobody really knows how many exactly. Maybe 20. Maybe 200. dunno.

If two countries both attack at the same time with a lot of nukes, and spread them out over the globe, then there is a high chance of nuclear winter. If the attacks are spread out, say over a week, and the areas of attack are limited to the borders of the two warring countries, then the risk would be substantially less.

The problem in knowing: atmospheric modeling is incredibly difficult. Consider the inaccuracy of weather forecasts and all the debate about global warming. The problem is that we don't know how the Earth's atmosphere copes with large external stresses, be they nuclear, chemical, or natural.

Anyways, clearly it would be possible for nuclear winter to occur, but it would take a large, sustained nuclear war. Have no doubt about it: sufficient weaponry already exists.

Also, consider that there is a gradient of severity to nuclear winter. It might not be radiation that is the problem, but giant dust clouds that inhibit farming, or cause lung disease, or whatever. Nuclear war is bad.

But in my opinion, inevitable. For example, do a google search of "iran nukes" or "north korea nukes."

Bastards.

Answer 3

The facts are that anyone in the area of the initial blast will obviously die. The blast will cause a huge mushroom type cloud , anyone within 1 or 2 miles of that will die. The fallout is potentially fatal, and can drift hundreds of miles depending on the wind and weather conditions. But if you stay undercover and do not breath or ingest the radioactive fallout you can survive. within about a week and a half to 2 weeks after the blast it will be safe to go back out doors. As long as you do not ingest anything with fallout residue on it or eat any animal or whatever that has consumed it themselves. The reality of the out come turning out as in the movies are slim. It will not happen like that .

Answer 4

Betwen Russia and USA may be.

But between India and Pakistan not but a persistent cooling and a long winter

Answer 5

that's going to besides the shown fact that it relatively is going to be extra saturated especially factors. some places could have loads of radiation, others could have little or no and we could have the skill to rebuild in those places.

Answer 6

yes ,this is what would happen,i think everyone should see this film, i watched it in the 70s and basically it frightened me to death

Answer 7

Strictly fiction.