How is the math done on Deal or No Deal?

Question

I am looking for the specific math to figure out the next offer from the bank.

Answer 1

Probabilities... it is easy to tell how much money is remaining: simply total the uncovered suitcases. Then divide by the total number of suitcases remaining, and you get a fairly decent estimate of what the "odds" are. That helps them decide how much to "offer".

For example, let's assume there is $100, $1000 and $10000 left... this means that there is $11,100 left out of 3 suitcases, or just over $3500 per suitcase.

However, there is a 2/3 chance that they won't have the $10k... so chances are they will win $1000 (the median of the 3 remaining).

So any "offer" of over $1000 might seem like a good offer... and as long as the offer is under $3500, the "producers" still make a sound deal.

Hope this helps! :)

Answer 2

There are numerous theories: no one really found out the "real algorithm". It's based on probabilities, but there is a "fudge factor". Read the discussion on the topic at http://nslog.com/2005/12/20/deal_or_no_deal_algorithm/

Answer 3

In this version it is simply half of the total of the outstanding suitcases. Have a look it's a fun game!

http://www.nbc.com/Deal_or_No_Deal/game/dond.swf