With the new movie formats coming of age, how long will it be until DVDs are outdated?

Answer 1

There are several possible successors to DVD being developed by different consortiums: Sony/Panasonic's Blu-ray Disc (BD), Toshiba's HD DVD and Maxell's Holographic Versatile Disc (HVD).

The first generation of holographic media with 300 GB of storage capacity and a 160 Mbit/s transfer rate is scheduled for release in late 2006 by Maxell and its partner, InPhase.

On November 18, 2003, the Chinese news agency Xinhua reported the final standard of the Chinese government-sponsored Enhanced Versatile Disc (EVD), and several patents for it. However, since then the format has generally failed to live up to expectations.

On November 19, 2003, the DVD Forum decided by a vote of eight to six that HD DVD will be its official HDTV successor to DVD. This had no effect on the competing Blu-ray Disc Association's (BDA) determination that its format would succeed DVD, especially since most of the voters belonged to both groups.

On April 15, 2004, in a co-op project with TOPPAN Printing Co., the electronics giant Sony Corp. successfully developed the paper disc, a storage medium that is made out of 51% paper and offers up to 25 GB of storage, about five times more than the standard 4.7 GB DVD. The disc can be easily cut with scissors and recycled, offering foolproof data security and an environment-friendly storage media.

As reported in a mid 2005 issue of Popular Mechanics, it is not yet clear which technology will win the format war over DVD. HD DVD discs have a lower capacity than Blu-ray discs (15 GB vs. 25 GB for single layer, 30 GB vs. 50 GB for dual layer), but Blu-ray requires changes in manufacturing machinery and techniques and is thus more expensive.

In April, 2000, Sonic Solutions and Ravisent announced hDVD, an HDTV extension to DVD that presaged the HD formats that debuted 6 years later.

This situation—multiple new formats fighting as the successor to a format approaching purported obsolescence—previously appeared as the "war of the speeds" in the record industry of the 1950s. It is also, of course, similar to the VHS/Betamax war in consumer video recorders in the late 1980s.

It is possible that neither Blu-ray, HD DVD, nor a next-generation optical recording products will succeed. The storage capacities of hard disk drives and solid-state memory have grown faster than those of optical discs (since CD's introduction year, 1983, storage capacity of HDDs grew by a factor of about 150,000, from 5 MB to 750 GB, while the capacity of Blu-ray is only 90 times larger than CD), and all three are much more capable of storing general consumer content —such as photos, music, and video— than in the past. Hard disk drives having a few terabytes of storage capacity will be on the market before 2008. A terabyte is equivalent to about 2000 CD-ROMs, 130 DVD-9s, or 20 dual-layer BDs. However, hard disk drives and memory cards are at the moment hundreds of times more expensive than optical discs (US$50 or more compared to $0.50).[citation needed] The price per gigabyte of a hard disk drive, $0.40 ($200/500 GB), is growing closer to that of a DVD-ROM, $0.06 ($0.50/8.5 GB); BD-ROM, $0.03 ($1.50/50 GB); recordable DVD-5, $0.10 ($0.50/4.7 GB); or recordable DVD-9, $0.30 ($2.50/8.5 GB); and is lower than the cost of a BD-RE25, $1.20 ($30/25 GB).[citation needed] Direct access to large amounts of information is much more convenient with a hard disk drive. As broadband becomes fast enough (40 Mbit/s and higher) and more widely available, physical media will become less important as a distribution format.

One last possibility is that DVD will not be replaced in terms of Home Theatre by any format currently developed. People may not be so keen to upgrade their DVD collection so (relatively) soon.[citation needed] DVD may remain the format of choice for many more years, which may lead to the creation of a better technology that will replace it.

The new generations of optical formats have restricted access (anti-copy mechanisms), and it is therefore possible that consumers may ignore them.

Answer 2

Rather than to copy and paste a Wikipedia entry, I will give you my own opinion.

DVD's are too new for everyone to rush out to buy a whole new format. HDTV's are still very expensive, and many HD DVD players can "upconvert" regular DVD's to the point where they look almost as good as true High Definition.

I don't think the next generation of High Definition DVD's will catch on with the general public for at least five to ten years. The "techy" consumers will, of course, rush out to buy them, but they make up a very small percentage of the population, and with the format war between HD DVD and Blu Ray, even the intelligent tech savy consumer would be wise not to waste money on either of them until one format is decided upon, and the other disappears.

Until one format wins out, and until the country as a whole sees the value in spending thousands of dollars more for new televisions, new DVD players, and additional cable costs for their HD tier, the next generation of movie discs will not be a major force, and will be little more than a niche market.

Answer 3

I'd say at least 5 years, because Blu-Ray players will have to be as affordable as DVD players are right now before most people buy one. And DVDs are used for plenty of things besides just playing movies. They store data and things like that. Blu-Ray will have to integrate themselves into all those aspects before it takes over the DVD.