Ummm....you guys are looking at OLD forecasts from 2001. This year is not supposed to be anything particularly special. Incidentally, no storm materialized in 2001, however there was a high percentage of fireballs and they did peak around 150-200/hour where I was in Colorado.
For THIS YEAR'S Leonid predictions check out the pages linked to from
http://leonids.arc.nasa.gov
That said, all the observing tips given above apply to ANY meteor shower and you might see some good fireballs if you follow them, though rates will be low.
2006-11-17 12:51:15
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answer #1
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answered by Mr. Quark 5
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You're right about missing out on the majority of the shower. Here they're telling us to look to the East about 4 to 5 am Sun morning, the 19th.
2006-11-17 07:51:43
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answer #2
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answered by Didi 3
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On Sunday, November 18, sometime during the hours of about 2:00 to 6:00 a.m. Central Standard Time, there is a very good possibility that we will have an opportunity to see up to hundreds if not thousands of meteors per hour for a while. That's from a handful per *minute* up to possibly dozens per *minute* of very fast, streaking meteors and a few brighter fireballs. It is also quite likely that this will be the last such opportunity for almost a century -- so it's pretty much a "once-in-a-lifetime" type of possible opportunity. This is the Leonid meteor shower 2001. There will be news reports about this event next week. Some of them may be garbled. Below are details followed by a few Web sites with plenty of accurate information.
Details
1. This is a MORNING event. Only a few meteors will be visible before midnight. This will be a "darkest hours before dawn" event on that Sunday morning. The predicted peak of Leonids activity for Central Standard Time is around 4:00 to 4:30 a.m.
2. The darker the sky the better (In-town numbers will be only 1/10 as high, if not worse, due to the glow of city lights. So in order to see as many meteors as possible, it will be necessary to go out into the country somewhere.)
3. White flashlights, car headlights and interior lights, nearby yard and streetlights, etc., will reduce the number of meteors you can see. The less extraneous light, the better. (Astronomers use deep red flashlights when they need to see things in the dark.)
4. Only 20/20 vision required. Binoculars or telescope would only reduce what you see in this case.
5. Bring a cot or lawn chair. Reclining in order to look well up in the sky is best.
6. Be sure to have proper clothes, blankets, sleeping bag, etc., to stay warm. When you are lying still, it turns out to be cooler than you think it will be. (At least, that's my experience.)
7. Be rested, or you'll sleep through it!
8. Give it some time. You can't hope to just walk out of a lighted room or jump out of your car and see much of anything. You have to give your eyes time to adapt to the dark. Also, especially if you start quite a bit early, things may be fairly quiet for a while. Just try to be patient and enjoy the beautiful winter stars (plus Jupiter and Saturn, which are in the middle of them right now).
9. Take care and be safe.
Of course, good weather is required! We're totally at the mercy of the weather on this. I am preparing to drive hundreds of miles if necessary to get to a location with a clear, dark sky. Lobby your favorite weather forecaster(s) regarding the need for a clear sky! (Mild temps would be nice also.)
Finally, a caveat — all of this is based on predictions developed from mathematical models built on data from previous years, so there are no guarantees. In other words, the hoped-for high numbers of meteors might not appear. But there's at least a reasonable chance that the predictions will be fairly good. A significant number of scientists and other meteor observers in various countries are booking expensive trips to other countries based on these predictions. Given that it may be the last such chance for decades, it's a "nothing ventured, nothing gained" type of proposition.
Web sites with very good but not too technical information:
Science@NASA, "Jaw-dropping Leonids":
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2001/ast08nov_1.htm
Spaceweather.com, 2001 Leonid Observing Tips:
http://www.spaceweather.com/meteors/leonids/observingtips.html
Observing Hints for the Leonid Meteor Shower
http://www.amsmeteors.org/
The Leonids, by Gary W. Kronk (a comets and meteors expert):
http://comets.amsmeteors.org/meteors/showers/leonidsez.html
Astronomical Society of the Pacific, "Leonid Meteor Shower Could Be One Of Best In History":
http://www.astrosociety.org/news/astronews/currentastro.html
NASA Leonid MAC 2001 Leonids:
http://leonid.arc.nasa.gov/
My collection of links, which includes many more Web sites on the topic:
http://http://webspace.utexas.edu/cannonea/www/meteorlinks.html#leonids
Here's a Texas weather site (easy text forecasts, frequently updated):
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/tx/tx.html (See more weather.)
Here are possible places to go — if you aren't or don't know a farmer or rancher — and if it turns out to be partly cloudy or better:
Texas State Parks (Note little clickable map on the right.):
http://www.tpwd.state.tx.us/park/findapark.htm
Lower Colorado River Authority parks from NW to SE of Austin:
http://www.lcra.org/lands/location.html
Clear, dark nights --
Ed Cannon - ecannon@mail.utexas.edu - Austin, Texas, USA
2006-11-17 08:23:16
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answer #3
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answered by jjtje5 2
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11:45 Eastern standard so that is 8:45 by you? oh, on Saturday night.
2006-11-17 07:46:05
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answer #4
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answered by foxfire101 4
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