To what extent probability concepts are important for being a good stock market analyst/fund manager.?

Answer 1

If you tossed a coin, you have an equal chance of it landing heads as you do tails. If you tossed it multiple times and it came up tails more often, then while you have the same raw possibility of it coming up tails next time, the likelihood (assuming a balanced coin) is that you are about to face a time of heads coming up more frequently.

Stocks are not coins. It isn't just chance that sets a price up or down on any given day. Still, if the company has been on the top ten biggest gainers list for three days, I'd start "betting" down because a "correction" is coming. That is the closest thing to the 'coin toss' kinds of probabilities as you will get. If you are trying to tie "probability concepts" to "being a good stock market analyst", I can tell you right now, you won't be a good stock market analyst. Sorry. As much as we popularly talk about the stock market being a crap shoot, it isn't.