Why aren't weather forecasts 100 percent accurate?

Answer 1

1) We don't know the precise state of the atmosphere and oceans everywhere at a given time.

2) The mathematical equations used to forecast the weather are imperfect; approximations are made.

3) The forecasts are run on a grid of points, at distinct time intervals, while the atmosphere operates smoothly at all time and space scales. That means that some processes occurring in the real atmosphere "get missed" by the forecast model and have to be approximated.

4) The atmosphere is a chaotic, non-linear system, so small errors at the beginning of a forecast get larger and larger, until the forecast barely resembles what the atmosphere will be like in the future at all.

Answer 2

Essentially, because weather is a chaotic system. No matter how complex the forecast models are, weather data is only as reliable as a (limited) set of recorded events and the equations used. Noone can tell you what the initial starting conditions for "Earth's weather" for every location on the planet, so weather reports are "best guesses" at the "most likely" weather events for the next day and beyond... (That includes forecasts for 'Global Warming' and the like too - who is to say what fits the patterns on a geological timescale.)

Answer 3

in weather, anything can change. Meterologists are experts at what they do and they are right 99 percent of the time. But every now and then, something can change. It doesn't take much for a whole forecast to change. I live in southeast VA and in the winter, we have to have conditions just right for a snow. If the storm moves 40 miles off it's course, it can change everything.

Answer 4

Have you ever heard of the Butterfly effect? No, not the movie with Ashton Kutcher. Any little thing that happens in the atmosphere can change a weather pattern. If a weather front is heading for Denver and suddenly a wind comes up from Mexico, the storm could go in a totally different direction than the one the weathermen were predicting.

Answer 5

Because it's impossible, hence "forecast" a prediction of what's going to happen. the weather forecasts are only a estimate.

Answer 6

The chaos theory says that even smallest impossible to measure factors can have huge affects on systems such as the weather. Watch Jurassic Park and The mathematician explains it very simply

Answer 7

There is a reason why predicting weather cycles uses the Chaos Theory.

Answer 8

Because you expect that the predicted weather phenomeno shoud occur over your house or head.

Answer 9

Because it is control by God and he can change every thing at any time he want. We can only predict.

Answer 10

The complexity of our atmosphere is too great to be solved by our mathematics.