Cuba After Castro: Does The Devil You Know Beat The One You Don't?

Question

The United States State Dept and Defense Dept is very openly and actively engaging in a Castro death watch, clearly believing the minute he dies, there's a crack in that country's status quo that will enable us to normalize relations with them, if not swoop in to resume our precise relationship with them from the pre-1956 era. A few questions are in order...

Who will succeed Castro? What if the Western Hemisphere gains it's own Kim Jong Il? What if Cuba and the US move backward from their current almost half century stalemate to more nuclear confrontations?

The time seems ripe -- on the 'bring it on' President's watch -- to bearbait the United States. Citizen's fear of nuclear confrontation has been blunted by decades of nothing like this happening. My concern, as a US citizen, is that we will one day succumb to the baiting and do something foolish. Do you think it's possible that we have taken the Cuba's stability and predictability under Castro for granted?

Serious answers welcome

Answer 1

There is NO doubt we have taken his rule for granted. And there is no doubt the state dept incorrectly thinks there will be a "crack in the armor". Let's face it they haven't done a very good job on foreign policy.

I believe Castro's brother Raul would be the new dictator.

I actually believe we should normalize relations now to martyr Castro making his successor less powerful.

Answer 2

When and if Castro dies it will be the people of Cuba who will decide who comes next some changes will obviously take place but it will not end up being a holiday paradise for US sex straved rich kids as some of the commentators seem to think or would like. Following the latest UN vote on the US blockade where Cuba gained a 182 to 3 victory which has been more or less the case for the past years the US should normalize relations with Cuba and stop the nonsense the only ones they are isolating is themselves by 180 odd countries to 3

Answer 3

You expensive faulty youthful guy. If Castro dies, we've not got something yet greater of an identical until Raul dies. the government won't fail to the will of the human beings through fact Castro or Raul isn't the difficulty - the US is the difficulty. there is not any ability vacuum - Fidel is the flexibility. If Fidel dies, Raul is the flexibility. Now on the subject of the exiles interior the US. they're third, 4th, 5th era Cubans here - that is THEIR abode. They argue and shout approximately returning, yet that is merely political manipulation. This group of Cubans has manipulated US coverage in the direction of Cuba ever through fact the Bay of Pigs. So don't be fooled. no person is going abode. regrettably, the US made Castro the corrupt hero he's in his united states. And we ignored the possibility to render him beside the point while the Pope visited Cuba some years in the past. We ignored yet another possibility to render him and the communist regime beside the point while he gave ability to Raul. All we mandatory to do become merely get rid of our embargos and sanctions. Cuba might flourish. however the only factor combating this style of circulate are the Miami Cubans. MAKE NO MISTAKE.

Answer 4

Given the economic conditions of Cuba and Russia's new persona, there seems to be little basis for concern. Yes, there are radicals that might shake their sabres, but does the island population of 11,000,000 people lacking their Russian support, present a real threat? Their Merchant Marine is 11 ships. The Russians cut off military aid in 1993. Now is the time for the US to begin to take steps towards mending the rift as Cuba does have oil, and China is energy-hungry and discussions have already begun. By lifting trade embargoes would be a major step to side-stepping another fiasco. Very likely Raul will succeed and he is slightly more moderate. It's time to begin mending fences and becoming better neighbors.

Answer 5

I happen to have a close friend in the State Department and while Cuba remains in the top 10 of places to watch and potentially influence towards a democratic form of government it remains at the bottom of the list due to the other threats we are facing today.

Fidel Castro has been replaced by Raul during his recent illness and Raul has publicaly stated that the "revolution" is more than just one man. Be that as it may, it is the mystique and romanticized personna of Fidel that has created an almost complete acceptance of his authority by the international community outside of the US.

Fidel has remained in power by purposefully not engaging in direct conflict with the US except in a carefuly planed strategy to test the limits of our annoyance from time to time. Raul will not engage the US in direct conflict unless her peceives doing so will result in greater control over the island population.

For 45 years Fidel and others have claimed that the US is planning an invasion of the island, sorry we didn't see that it was ever worth the risk. Frankly, we didn't want to add another 11 million people to our welfare roles.

It is tragic what has happened to the people of Cuba both for the exiles and those who have remained behind. It is tragic to have your entire culture erased and replaced with slogans and statues of the "Revolution". It is tragic that every girl in Havana above the age of 14 must care for her parents and grandparents by becoming a prostitute. It's tragic that in a Country whose modernization in the 1950's once exceeded the standard of living in the United States is now in complete ruin, the infrastructure of running water and electricity has deteiroated beyond repair and the once beautiful architecture of the City of Havana, "The Lost City" - See the Andy Garcia movie, is a shadow of its former self.

In my opinion, there are no Nuclear Weapons in Cuba, if i trust our intelligence to do anything right it is that we have checked and verified that any missle parts that were headed for Cuba during the missle criscis were sent back or never weaponized.

Is it possible that a threat to the status quo in cuba may result in the new leaderships desire to obtain WMD's yes, I believe it is possible. I believe that it is even likely that Biological and Chemical weapons are being developed in Cuba for sale to terrorist throughout the world. I also believe we are wathcing this however, I cannot be confident that we are doing a good job in gathering intelligence and processing it appropriately.

The key to democracy in Cuba will be the Cuban people themselves. Here is the problem, most of the population in Cuba except for the elders know nothing other than Fidel and Communism/Socialism and any change in the formation of the government will most likely come from desperate civil unrest and bloddy confrontations. Converserly, most of the population of Cuba know nothing other than Fidel and Socialism and have no real connection the the previous glory that was Cuba so what will fill their hearts to make them fight, nothing I am afraid. They have been trained to be helpless and have learned to wait on line for everything no matter how miniscule will be provided by the Government.

To free Cuba, you must first free the Cuban mind, heart and soul.

Castro's famous line "Solialism or Death", should read Socilism is Death.

Answer 6

There will be a Trump Towers and a hundred other resort/casinos on the beach in Havana with a year of Castro's death. The Republicans could not win military or political victories in Afghanistan or Iraq, but they will successfully conquer Cuba by just buying it and creating a great vacation spot for Americans. Great food and drink, excellent beaches and beautiful women. What more could an all-American boy want?

Answer 7

Good question. I think after Castro we will reoccupy Cuba and continue to use it as we did before, which is why Castro was right to try to be free from the U.S. Long live the Revolution.