3 Mile wide comet to hit earth in 26 years.?

Question

NASA anounced 4 years ago that a comet was headed in the direction of earth.NASA said it would come/pass with in 3000 miles of earth,but being that it was within a certain distance that the earth would pull it in and the impact would be the end of the world as we know it.The day after they anounced this on CNN and other news stations,they recalled what they said,saying it would pass with in 300k to 500k miles of the earth,which poses no threat to us.Now why would NASA tell the world one thing,and the next day say something different?Was it the goverment?Do they not want us to know the world will end in 26 years?If the people knew the world would end in 26 years,people would not invest,they would not plan,they would do things different,which in result cause mass panic etc etc.....Tell me your thoughts!
NASA even did a demostration of what effect the comet would do to the earth,LIVE ON CNN. They put an Apple on a table,shot the apple with a "BB"(BB GUN).The Apple Exploded.

Answer 1

First off, as others have said, the physics of Apophis are well known now. At the time, however, the asteriod was too far away to get the accurate measurements needed to determine it's trajectory. But within a couple of days they DID get the measurements. No, Apophis will not hit in 2029. There is a miniscule chance (1:45000) it may hit in 2036, but we'll know decades before and there IS something we can do about it. On the flip side, there will be a day when Apophis will hit us if we do nothing. It's only a matter of time.

If, however, the Earth was going to go and there wasn't a thing that could be done about it, who would want to know? Civilization would disintegrate - no one would go to work crime would be rampant, and things would be horrific long before the asteroid hit. No government would tell us.

Personally, I wouldn't want to know my family was going to die without any hope.

Answer 2

Regardless of the comet or asteroid or planetoid or anything else hitting the Earth that is planet killer size..., the governments of the world are not going to tell the people squat.

There would be religious upheavals, other people would be killing, raping, looting, you name it. I am sure there would be a large number praying and wanting to spend their last days with loved ones, but the violent people would be having a field day. I cite the LA riots - where the justification was not really existent - there were people out to damage, injure and kill just for the thrill of it and used Rodney King as an excuse.

Not everyone joined in those riots - but enough did. If we were to find out with 100% certainty that the Earth was going to be obliterated and all life extinguished - the insane would run the asylum, rest assured.

So n government, especially the U.S., would warn anybody. Even if it was a state or city sized killer asteroid, the losses by warning the people would be greater than remaining silent. Or at least thats their theory and it maybe true.

Answer 3

Articulate... gave the best answer. The scary ones are the unmapped planet killers, especially the ones coming from behind the sun into our line of site, at which point, we'll have two years advance warning, little time for an interdiction plan.

In view of the fact that most astronomers are not employed by the govt, i would imagine the world will know when the planet killers are discovered.

Answer 4

it would be comparable to an 8 kilometer comet hitting a million meter from the place you're status. am i able to upload this to my record of actually stupid questions? thank you! playstation in basic terms a severe aside, through fact no one has any thought of what a comet this length might do. If it become heading to land close to, you will possibly get incinerated as quickly as a comet this length hit the ambience - the warmth from emtry into the ambience might blast everythig interior of a pair of fifty km radius. it would additionally gouge a crater approximately one hundred kilometers extensive. So, you spot how ridiculous this question is?

Answer 5

It will come within 18,000 to 23,000 miles of earth in 2029. There's a 1 in 43,000 chance that the encounter will change the asteroids trajectory just right so it could hit in 2031. Even if that was going to happen, it wouldn't take much to change the rocks course enough to make it miss.

Answer 6

well, as if we are living without directions, it may be an eye opener to us.
what this comet could do to us? at least all population will be wiped out. no more al qaeda, no more bush-blair, and i bet we wont have to waste time thinking how to make the world a better place. my opinion is this, if itis true that the comet will be coming into us in 26 years, dont be afraid. just live our life to the fullest. after all, it is all pre arranged for us (for those who believe in god)

Answer 7

A few bombs could probably shatter a comet to little itty bits. Now even just smashing a few probes into the comet would be enough to change its course and cause it miss earth.

Answer 8

Relax - the odds are very low of the Earth getting hit by the Apophis asteroid.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_MN4

Answer 9

The trouble with these scare-mongering stories people keep posting here is that they never ever provide the name of the comet or asteroid! Then the facts could be checked.

If you are so worried about what you heard 4 years ago, why has it taken you 4 years to mention it? The trail has gone cold by now!

You probably mean the asteroid Apophis or Comet Swift-Tuttle.

The story about asteroid Apophis broke in Dec 2004.

99942 Apophis (previously known by its provisional designation 2004 MN4) is a near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a relatively large probability that it would strike the Earth in 2029.

However, additional observations taken over the next 3 days (t was Christmas but astronomers put in the effort, worldwide) provided improved predictions that eliminated the possibility of an impact on Earth or the Moon in 2029.

However there remained a possibility that during the 2029 close encounter with Earth, Apophis would pass through a "gravitational keyhole", a precise region in space no more than about 400 meters across, that would set up a future impact on April 13, 2036. This possibility kept the asteroid at Level 1 on the Torino impact hazard scale through August 2006.

Additional observations of the trajectory of Apophis revealed the "keyhole" would likely be missed and on August 5, 2006, Apophis was lowered to a Level 0 Torino impact hazard scale. As of October 19, 2006 the impact probability for April 13, 2036 is estimated at 1 in 45,000. An additional impact date in 2037 has been identified, however the impact probability for that encounter is 1 in 12.3 million.

Comet 109P/Swift-Tuttle was independently discovered by Lewis Swift on July 16, 1862 and by Horace Parnell Tuttle on July 19, 1862.

It is the parent body of the Perseid meteor shower - perhaps the best known shower and also among the most reliable in performance.

In 1973, astronomer Brian Marsden, of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, suggested that the comet seen in 1862 might be the same comet reported in 1737 by a Jesuit missionary, Ignatius Kegler, in Beijing, China.

Marsden predicted that Comet Swift-Tuttle, with a newly calculated period of 130 years, would return at the end of 1992. Increased numbers of Perseid meteors the past few years indicated the comet might be near.

On September 26, 1992, Japanese amateur astronomer Tsuruhiko Kiuchi, using six-inch binoculars, noticed a comet moving through the Big Dipper in an area where scientists had calculated Comet Swift-Tuttle should be, if it was indeed reappearing. Other astronomers confirmed that the lost comet had been found. Marsden's 1973 prediction was confirmed, although the date of the comet's closest approach to the Sun (its perihelion) was off by 17 days from his prediction. On November 7, 1992, the comet passed 177 million kilometers (110 million miles) from Earth (its closest approach) on its way to a December 12th perihelion.

Armed with new observations of the comet's motion, Marsden went to work revising his calculations of its orbit. He predicted the next perihelion would occur on August 14, 2126. But if the actual date of perihelion was off by 15 days from his prediction (as the 1992 perihelion had been off by 17 days), the comet and the Earth might be in the same place in space at the same time. Since Comet Swift-Tuttle is thought to be about six-miles across, about the same size of the asteroid that killed the dinosaurs, a possible collision looked ominous.

Marsden continued to refine his calculations, and discovered that he could trace Comet Swift- Tuttle's orbit back almost two thousand years, to match comets observed in 188 AD and possibly even 69 BC. The orbit turned out to be more stable than he had originally thought, with the effects of the comet's jets less pronounced. Marsden concluded that it is highly unlikely the comet will be 15 days off in 2126, and he called off his warning of a possible collision. His new calculations show Comet Swift-Tuttle will pass a comfortable 15 million miles from Earth on its next trip to the inner solar system. However, when Marsden ran his orbital calculations further into the future, he found that, in 3044, Comet Swift-Tuttle may pass within a million miles of Earth, a true cosmic "near miss".

Marsden's prediction, and later retraction, of a possible collision between the Earth and the comet highlight that fact that we will most likely have century-long warnings of any potential collision, based on calculations of orbits of known and newly discovered asteroids and comets. Plenty of time to decide what to do

However the one for the terminally and incurably paranoid to worry about is ...

The near Earth object with the highest known possible probability of impacting Earth, is (29075) 1950 DA, according to the Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale.

1950 DA was first discovered on February 23, 1950 by Carl A. Wirtanen at Lick Observatory. It was observed for 17 days and then lost for half a century. An object discovered on December 31, 2000 (provisionally designated 2000 YK66) was recognized as being the 1950 DA.

The asteroid has been given the number 29075, but does not have a name.

Radar observations at the Goldstone and Arecibo Observatory from March 3 to 7, 2001 during the asteroid's 7.8 million km approach to the Earth give a mean diameter of 1.1 – 1.4 km. Optical lightcurves by Petr Pravec show that the asteroid rotates every 2.1216 hours.

Due to its short rotation period, 1950 DA is thought to be fairly dense (more than 3.0 g/cm³).

If 1950 DA continues on its present orbit, it will approach near to theon March 16, 2880. Over the intervening time, the rotation of the asteroid will cause its orbi Earth t to change (by the Yarkovsky effect). A preliminary analysis shows two possible pole directions (Giorgini, et al., 2002 "Asteroid 1950 DA's 2880 Encounter with Earth"). One trajectory misses the Earth by tens of millions of kilometers, while the other has an impact probability of 1⁄300. The radar observations are currently being reanalyzed, in combination with the optical lightcurves.

The energy released by a collision with an object the size of 1950 DA would cause major effects on the climate and biosphere which would be devastating to human civilization.

The discovery of the potential impact has heightened interest in asteroid deflection strategies.

NASA maintains a website with details of possible impacts of Near Earth Objects that may be on a collision course with Earth in the next 100 years. As more details of their orbits are calculated, their impact hazard scale ratings are reduced.

1950 DA is not on that list. Not because the Government is hushing up the truth, but because it is not due to strike for another 800 years and the list only covers the next 100 years. So conspiracy theories are not warranted!