Why is it so hard to evaluate talent from college to the NFL level?

Question

look at all the low/mid round draft picks that end up being greats
and opposite for the Quarterback position
look at how many Heisman winning and high drafted quarterbacks that have sucked it up in the NFL -

Answer 1

There are a lot of reasons for that, you could literally spend all day answering that question. One of the reasons why come college players are great in college but not in the NFL, is that in college, they can usually get by on just athletic ability. In the NFL, you can't really do that, you have to work hard and learn the system of the team that the player is on. Some guys who have flopped with one team, may have been successful on others. I think also once players get their big contracts, then they are not motivated to work hard, and don't develop, and waste their talent.

A lot of middle round picks may be good players who had a bad senior year, were injured, so their stock falls. Maybe they went to a small school where the competition isn't great. If they had a good senior year, were healthy, or went to larger schools they may have been picked much higher. It's also possible that they get stronger or faster.

As for some quarterbacks who are great in college but not in the pros, it is most likely the system that they are in.
Gino Toretta won the Heisman but didn't make it in the NFL. He had great athletes to throw to in college, but in the NFL there are great athletes on the other team too. Also he had a weak arm. You could also look at Ryan Leaf, who had everything, size, arm. He got to the NFL, and he turned out to be lazy, lost his love of the game, and just didn't have the mental make-up to stay in the NFL.

Answer 2

QB is the hardest spot to analyze. Primarily it is due to the speed and complexity of the NLF game. In college DBs and linebackers aren't nearly as fast as the NFL. So, a college QB has a lot more time to get a WR the ball. In the NFL, defenders close so fast that tenths of a second in release time and travel time make a HUGE difference -- often the difference between a completion and an interception. This factor is what usually kills QBs from schools like Florida, where accuracy is there but quick release isn't. Also, QBs in the NFL have to be able to read defense and react VERY quickly. All the arm strenght in the world won't help a QB that can't recognize a zone blitz. This factor killed Ryan Leaf. He simply couldn't pick up the mental aspect. There are so many college teams and the game is different between conferences that it is just really hard to judge who has enough quick release and quick thinking to translate into NFL success. This is why you have so many busts and also so many veteran QBs who can stick around. The David Carr vs. Testaverde comparison is a great example. Carr is twice the athlete Vinny is right now, but Vinnie is twice the QB. He knows the game and can make up for his physical limitations by reacting quickly, while Carr is clueless.

Answer 3

I think the number one factor is the opposition. Not only do you have to look at the player, but the opposition as well. So what if a player ran 5000 yards a game and never got tackled? He could have been running against coma patients.

The second one is injuries. Now that guys are so big, strong and fast, the muscle and bone structure of these guys give way to fast.

The third factor is the the team they are on. You have to remember, it's the worst team that picks first. A good drafted quarterback will probably end up on a team that sucks. The lower picked quarterbacks end up on the better teams. Steve Young was good backing up Montana because his team was good. Put Steve Young on the worst team each year and everybody would probably say he sucked.

Answer 4

You will never know how good they will play when the difference between players isnt so great. In college you don't have to be Vince Young to be really good because you most of the time have good players and ok players. Take for instance Chris Perry from University of Michigan. He was great in college and ran around practically everyone but then when he comes to the NFL he's not the star he was in college. Sure he hasn't had much playing time but he didnt live up to his potential. Another reason is there are so many college teams. I live in michigan and there is a little college called Oakland University. I dont think many hockey players will get drafted from there because its such a small unnoticed college.

Answer 5

There's not as much pressure on the mid to late round picks like the top round picks. They don't have the media and fans breathing down their necks expecting great things of them even before their first day of training camp. When expectations are low, then it is easy to surpass them by a long shot, when they are high, then well, there's little to no room to show that the player is even better then expected bc they're expected to be the best.

Answer 6

I think the same can be said of many sports. If you are able to have a signing bonus of 10-30 million with a guaranteed 5 year contract, what the hell is your incentive to perform in the NFL where a serious injury will end your career and jeopardize possible signing bonuses and signed contracts?

Answer 7

Its a whole differnet area to play. you have a bunch of College kids playing football and you have full grone men chomping at the bits, some people are just made better for the NFL there are certain atributes that some poeple have over the others.

Answer 8

the players in the NFL are stronger, faster, and smarter than the college level players.... that means that they need an adjustment period to get acquainted with that new level of play.. usually 1-2 seasons and in their third if they dont play well they prolly never will.........

Answer 9

at times certain college players mature later than others; also even the best college players are an unknown factor against
seasoned pros.

Answer 10

level of players from college and nfl is big time difference