How can election winners be predicted without all the votes in?

Question

I'm looking for the technical answer - I'm sure it has to do with statistics, but I want to know exactly how it works. I mean, the news channels start projecting the winner sometimes with only 1% of the precincts reporting. How can they do this?

Answer 1

I'm assuming that you are asking about the "final" results. Anything before the close of polls is just exit polls and other types of polls. I worked at the polls in Phx Arizona.

You asked for technical so here goes. Here are the main tools

- Unofficial forms of voting that are not offically "counted" yet (these are printouts from the ballot boxes that can be used for approximatoins but not for official reporting numbers)

-They use a sample size of the the number of places reported officially.

- Exit polls they bug people leaving. "who did you vote for?" we had a guy outside asking questions and taking pictures of people.

- Comparison to previously performed polls

Each machine has an unofficial count of the ballots. It represents every vote but because of the way it is handled it is considered unofficial.

One Pollster (if that's a word) Goes and turns it in alone as soon as the polls close. Everyone else stays behind to close down the polling place. Since he goes alone he could tamper with it. All official ballots and documents are handled by two members of that polling location (the 'inspector' and the 'judge' who must be of different parties.)

This data can be useful for reporting purposes and it can be fairly accurate; however ultimately unofficial. This is the main source of info.

Once they have begun counting they use the current count as a sample size and have statisticians run approximations of what the population is.

They can have a previous poll that they use to compare it against if they are really desperate. They also can use the unofficial ballot count as a very close approximation of the population mean. They can use the standard error of the previous sample statistic (that was also calculated to represent the population parameter within a margin of error)

Theoretically they are supposed to take into account the sample quality. Certain areas are counted first that vote mostly for one party they should be treated as a sample that has a known bias.

Boring calculation below

(null hypothesis) H0= M(mew)=C(percentage of people voting for the thing or person)

The sample size will be the number of ballots counted = n

sigma = standard deviation

(x - x(bar))/(sigma/square root of N) = Z
(because the sample will be greater than 30 we can assume)

If that Z is larger or smaller than the confidence level (alpha) the news organization has agreed upon then they can make certain predictions of accurately of their polling information.

Answer 2

Precinct by precinct results from previous elections are public records. Analyzing this data allows the networks to predict that certain presents are likely to have results similar to other presents. In the part of Ohio where I live, the "unofficial" totals for each precinct are posted outside each polling place when the polls close. Anyone who cares to view them can see these numbers before the "official" totals are returned to the BOE. As a poll worker I know that our machines print 2 identical tapes. One goes one the front door and the other is returned to the BOE along with the memory cards from each voting machine. Even if no precincts have actually reported, an organized group can have the numbers from many individual precincts. A handful of carefully selected precincts can be fairly accurate in predicting the overall results.

I never believe exit polls, or any other polls for that matter.

Answer 3

There should be a BLACKOUT of results until the polls close, PERIOD. Predictably some districts will vote democrat or republican, go there and do your sampling and you get the results you want. it's like when Dan Rather was gleefully pronouncing Gore the winner before republicans in the Florida panhandle had voted yet, and they gave up and went home or didn't bother to turn out at all, and probably democrats too. We need every legal voter fulfilling their obligations on election day. This "sampling" is just campaining by supposedly "neutral" news media, it need to be stopped, report the results when the results are COMPLETE. If the media wasn't biased, then all these races that were supposedly going to be easily won by democrats wouldn't have turned into such close races. Because early predictions of who is winning an election is influencing the elections as much as if they manipulated the machines. And when they are wrong, then paranoid nuts start yelling the election was "stolen". Announce the election results at 6 am wednesday morning, is that too much to ask?

Answer 4

Simple--even before the precinct votes are transmitted to the state, they are finalized just after the polls close. Poll watchers get these numbers and call them in to the news media. They know the make-up of the various precincts and how they traditionally vote, so, like in the Montana Senate race, with it being very very close, less than 3000, and two precincts out, they predicted the winner--because the total vote to be cast at those precincts were not enough to change the final outcome.

Answer 5

With the silly number of candidates diluting the voter pool the primaries will come down to a matter of votes. Hillary and Obama have a following but continue to lose from their base as they continually show their inexperience in Obama's case and duplicity in Hillary's case. OF course there's Bill Richardson who is, in my opinion, the worst of the Democratic candidates. Romney makes many Republicans uncomfortable and of course ol Rudy's questionable conservative values and Thompson's history will make the Republican side an interesting race as well. I just don't think with elections becoming more about fund raising and less about actual issues. Candidates whose greatest talent is laying blame is what we have ended up with yet as a society we will ignore these things and continue to bash each other while the politicians get richer. Every day I move closer and closer to becoming a independent. I voted green in 00 because I believe we need another official party and that may very well be what I do again.

Answer 6

They predict the outcome based on the margin of the current lead, and also by looking at the sections of the districts that haven't counted the votes yet. If the people in some locations always vote heavily Republican or Democrat then they take that into consideration.

Answer 7

Exit polls. News outlets and some polling people have someone at polling places (strategically placed, I guess) who asked people as they leave who they voted for. When I was in college and was sent out to do a story for election day, we were instructed that you never ask someone who they voted for. I guess if I'd ignored that advice, I could have developed exit polling, copyrighted it, and be rich now. Oh well.

Answer 8

By the swing in the vote required to win the seat. This is determined by looking at the margin of votes by which the seat is held and the votes counted officially so far.

Answer 9

On Sunday evening, I received a survey in my e-mail regarding my political intentions. The questions were quite comprehensive and asked if I knew all the issues and where my candidates stood on them. I'm sure that this survey was sent out to people who regularly answer surveys and that's why I got one. It was about 20 minutes long.

Answer 10

The same way that Nielsen (ratings) can predict how many people watch a TV show by sampling about 2,000 households.